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Wednesday, 24 February 2021

5:30 Southwell Racing Tips (25th February)


SOUTHWELL 5.30 

This 8 runner race looks very intriguing, the draw doesn't mean much over this straight 5 furlong course but the only known front runner, Spirit Power is drawn in stall 1 but hasn't any recent c/d form, the trainer has a 17% win ratio and the jockey has a 22% win rate for the stable, Smokey has a time from Lingfield that would make it top rated overall but with no form on this slower surface I'm not sure how well it will go, Qaaraat will run its usual race if in the mood but its not one to rely on, Global Melody has 2 wins and 2 places from its 6 c/d runs and could go well in this race, Dynamo Walt is maybe getting a bit old nowadays but could go ok, I will split my stakes between PASSIONAL 6/4 who seems to have a positive jockey booking and has won its only previous race over this c/d and USTATH 13/2 who has won twice been placed once from just 4 previous c/d attempts, the former will be held up for a late run while the latter will try to track the leaders and then stay on resolutely at the finish 

Passional 6/4 2nd -1pts
Ustath 13/2 7th -1pt

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 7.00

Only 8 runners but another very intriguing race, Zylan trainer stats 16% wins, jockey stats 20% wins, its won 6 and placed 4 times from 13 c/d runs and time wise it makes my top 4 ratings it likes to lead and has the plum stall 1 draw,, Lord Oberon trainer stats 23% wins, jockey 38% wins its won both of its c/d runs but time wise may need to improve to win this race, Rock Sound trainer stats 40% wins, jockey stats also 40% wins and its best time from 2019 makes it my 2nd top rated, Garth Rockett trainer stats 27% wins, jockey 43% wins it hasn't any form over this course and its best time from Chelmsford would make it 2nd top rated overall, Katheefa has relatively poor trainer/jockey stats but has a time from 2019 that puts it in top spot, Alsvinder is the only other known frontrunner in this race, has ok trainer/jockey stats but would need to improve time wise to win, Medicine Jack hasn't any course form and would need to improve for the switch to this surface to win the race, Exceassable trainer stats 24% wins, jockey stats 23% wins and is top rated on just recent c/d times, a lot of connections look as though they fancy their chances in this race I will go with 2 horses to win from off the pace, if i was 100% sure that EXCESSABLE 4/1 was up to this class of race it would be my sole selection but i will have to back a 2nd horse in the shape of ROCK SOUND 7/2 who likes to stay on at the finish of races.

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