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Tuesday, 23 February 2021

1:00 Southwell Racing Tips (24th February)

SOUTHWELL 1.00 

This race will evolve around Owhatanight 4/9 who has won its last 2 races and one of those wins was over this c/d but time wise both races were not fast enough to register on my figures and I expect it will be the hot favourite, it might win easily but I am definitely not backing it at an odds on price let alone under one to two, but that could leave me a value call in the race and hopefully it will be a double figure price, I expect Jazz Legend 6/1 to set the pace unless something else changes its usual race tactics and it could do enough from the front to hold on for a place and could be worth putting in a forecast with the selection and I quite like Josephine Gordon riding front running horses despite all this I will be putting my faith in the top weight PUCHITA 17/2 who has been running in better class races and this drop could see it back to winning ways plus connections have employed a 5lb claiming apprentice who has a 31% winning ratio for the stable and could be worth an each way investment.

Puchita 17/2 4th -2pts

Total - 2pts 

SOUTHWELL 2.05

A poor turnout of just 5 runners for this class 2 race with nearly 12k to the winner both Ornate and King Of Stars are known to front run and I expect the former to do best of those two and it could steal the race if allowed an easy lead but that isn't easy on this straight 5 furlongs, the latter maybe outclassed at this level as might Mulzim, the top weight Lampang might need further to show its best but this surface has been running very slow lately so it should be staying on at the finish but I will be backing TAWNY PORT 9/1 who has won twice and been placed in its 3 runs over this c/d and they are using a 7lb claiming apprentice to help their cause and he has won on his only previous ride for this stable and I didn't expect it to be this generous in price. 

Tawny Port 9/1 5th -1pt

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.15 

Quite a poor class 6 dash with half of the 8 runners having been known to lead before, one trainer has 3 runners, Tan with a jockey record of 0-29, Brandy Station with a jockey record of 0-8, so it makes me thing that RED STRIPES 10/3 could be the trier and this front runner is still capable on a going day, Red Allure is another that can run ok if in the mood but its best time came at Newcastle back in 2019, the top weight MOVEONUP 20/1 another front running type and with a 5lb claiming apprentice helping its cause has to have a decent chance of winning this race and at the price I have to go with an each way wager, I will be backing both selections but my stakes wont be at full strength. 

Red Stripes 9/2 4th -1pt
Moveonup 20/1 6th -2pts

Total -3pts

KEMPTON 5.15 

This is very competitive race with quite a lot of conflicting ratings, there is 2 known front runners in Turanga Leela who comes out 2nd best and only 2lbs off top spot for recent c/d times and its best time was recorded this year, Album is the other possible pacesetter but has only ran once over this c/d where it didn't record a speed rating but its best time recorded at Chelmsford this year would make it my top rated overall, Winneetka is the one that is top rated on recent c/d figures and has finished 2nd in its last 3 races and could go one better here, Princes Des Sables hasn't any course form but does have a time from Lingfield that would see it just 3lbs below top spot overall, Jackstar will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late for the win, Grey Galleon is one I would look to lay for the win part but it has been placed in 3 of its 4 c/d runs so it might be worth an each way interest, I will go with backing both TURANGA LEELA 14/1 in an each way punt at the price and ALBUM 11/4 who will try to set the early pace and they could lead all the way.

Turanga Leela 14/1 2nd +2.5pts
Album 11/4 5th -1pt 

Total +1.5pts

Total on the day: -4.5pts

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