This shows the blog in its raw state. I usually alter things depending on the betting. The idea of this post is to show my thinking when analysing each horse.
Generally, I use my own shorthand but here I've written the blog in full.
Please read my notes about each horse because there is more than one way to make a profit. For example, I bet, lay & trade, and sometimes even wager in-running if a horse changes its usual running style. The analysis of each race offers many and varied betting opportunities. It is a skill to use the information at hand in the most efficient and productive way to make more cash.
Good luck whatever you back.
SOUTHWELL 6.45
ANOTHER ANGEL, 5/2 a possible front runner from stall 3, but the draw makes no difference over this straight 5-furlong course. Trainer's stats are 18% win ratio, jockey's stats 18% win ratio for this stable. It has one previous c/d run which resulted in a slow time but its best time from Newcastle would make it 3rd top overall.
SLOWMO 4/1 is another possible front runner from stall 2 and stablemate of the horse above (so which one is trying? maybe both, maybe neither) its jockey has a 11% win ratio , he’s the main jockey for the stable but the apprentice riding its stablemate has a better win ratio, it has the 2nd fastest recent c/d time while its best Newcastle time would make it my top rated overall but I don't think this is this ones favourite surface.
SCALE FORCE 7/2 is a versatile horse with its racing tactics but not known as a front running type, it has a trainer stat's of 15% win ratio and jockey's stats of a 23% win ratio, it usually likes to track the leaders and then run on at the finish and maybe even better over a longer distance, time wise it would need to improve a few pounds. It won last time out and maybe a lot shorter in price than it should be and anything under 4/1 and i would look to lay it.
SIGNORE PICCOLO 25/1 is the jockey's 1st ride for this stable and the stable's 0-16 record at this course makes me think it's not going to be fancied in this race, it hasn't made the frame in any of its previous AW races. It has won on all sorts of going on turf but I expect it will be an outsider in this race and too big to be of value to lay.
IT MUST BE FAITH 9/1 has trainer stat of 14% win ration and a jockey's stat of an 18% win ratio. It usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish but looks another that may be better over a longer distance. Its best time from Lingfield and Kempton is only good enough for 4th spot overall on my figures but hasn't shown anything time wise from its previous 3 c/d runs and I would look to lay it if a single figure price.
*BIG IMPACT 8/1 the trainer has a 13% win ratio at this course while the jockeys record is 0-4. Its sole c/d run resulted in a slow time, not fast enough to register on my graphs, it can be held up, race in the middle of the field or track the leaders, so quite versatile, but races as though further would suit it better and I expect it will be a double figure price in the betting but a lay if in single figures.
COOL SPIRIT 25/1 a possible pacesetter coming out of stall 8 but hasn't shown much form for quite a while now. The trainer has a 13% win ratio here and the jockey has won on 9% of its rides for the stable, its best time figure from Newcastle wouldn't be good enough to make my top 3 ratings and I expect it will be an outsider in the betting.
RED STRIPES 7/1 is another that has been known to lead before and is housed in stall 6. It has the fastest recent, 2020/21, c/d time and on its day is capable of winning this race. The trainer has a relatively poor 8% win ratio and that's the same ratio figure for the jockey and has won over this c/d on 5 previous occasions and been placed 13 times, if an each way price might be worth an each way wager.
SUMMARY: It is probable that this race will be won from the front with my top 3 ratings all being known to lead, the top 2 in the race are from the same stable which can muddy the waters, if pushed, I would side with Slowmo of the pair but it is just my opinion the stable might have other ideas, if the leaders go off too fast and fade then It Must Be Faith could prosper but I doubt that will happen, i will take a punt on RED STRIPES 7/1 with a small each way bet and using an exchange I would more on the place part than the win part.
*NR
Red Stripes 9/1 3rd (-2pts)
Lay bet: Scale Force -1.75pts (Betfair 2.96)
Total on the day: -3.75pts
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