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Wednesday 17 March 2021

4:40 Chelmsford Racing Tips (18th March)


A very strange race to analyse, Spirited Guest 9/2 I expect will be to the fore in the betting but I think it might need this run for fitness, if fully wound up it would have a decent chance of winning, so neither one I could back or lay, Wiley Post 5/1 may need further to shine, Ascot Jungle looks to be an outsider and maybe because this surface which doesn't seem/look to suit it, Stake Acclaim has a time from Lingfield which would make it my 2nd top rated, it seems to get towed along in a fast run race and record a good speed figure but is 0-12 on the AW tracks, Agent Shiftwell 5/1 is the only known front runner in the race but I'm not convinced it likes this surface, Camachess will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late, Jumira Bridge 5/1 hasn't any recent c/d form but has a time from 2019 that would be good enough to win this race but is 0-4 on its previous c/d runs, Shamshon 3/1 produced a slow time only its only previous c/d run but has a positive jockey booking, I will go with splitting my stake between SHAMSHON 3/1 and JUMIRA BRIDGE 5/1 but my stakes will be kept low. 

Jumira Bridge 5/1 1st +5pts (Betfair SP - ) 
Shamshon 3/1 2nd -1pt 

Total +4pts


Only 7 runners here but a couple of known front runners, Second Collection comes out 2nd best on overall figures but its sole c/d run was run 11lbs below that time from Kempton, Healing Power 11/4 is a possible pacesetter in stall 2 but when it finished 2nd on its only c/d run it was a slow time so not really sure what to expect but I certainly couldn't back it at the price, Company Minx hasn't shown much recently and I expect it will be an outsider, Shoot To Kill is the other possible leader but its 2 runs over this c/d have only produced slow times, Blame Culture hasn't any c/d form and it may need a longer distance to show its best, Show Me A Sunset also hasn't any c/d form and this may be better over a shorter trip but it comes from one of the top stables and running here after winning last time out the trainer probably knows more than me about whether the horse can win this race, Excellent George has 3 wins and 5 places from 10 runs over this c/d and is my top rated, I will have a bet on EXCELLENT GEORGE 6/1 but my stake will be kept on the low side because the apprentice jockey is 0-5 when riding for today's stable. 

Excellent George 8/1 2nd -1pt 

Total on the day +3pts

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