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Wednesday, 25 August 2021

3:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips (26th August)

CHELMSFORD 3.30 

Only 6 runners but half of them have been known to lead before but I think that Swiss Pride might be the one to set the pace as it seems to be the more natural front running type than the other 2 possible pacesetters, looking at the tissue prices the 3yo Toussarak 6/4 is forecast to be a short priced favourite but I think it might get outpaced as it races as though a longer trip would suit it better so maybe worth laying at the price as you lose very little if it does win, INVINCIBLE LARNE 13/2 hasn't run over this course and distance this year and its best from 2020 makes it my top rated so has to have a decent chance of winning and has been running well lately on turf, my top rated on just 2021 times is ARAIFJAN 6/1 who is versatile when it comes to its racing tactics and has the plum draw in stall 1 to work from and should get a good early position from which to lead or attack in the latter stages of the race. 

Araifjan 6/1 4th -1pt 
Invincible Larne 13/2 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

CHELMSFORD 5.05 

Only 8 runners and I can find negatives against 5 of them and I would look to lay any that are a single figure price, Katherine Place is my 3rd top rated which it recorded over this course and distance this year so could go well but I doubt it will be an each way price, Precious Plum is my 2nd top rated with TILSWORTH ROSE 11/4 in top spot, these 2 met each other last time out and the selection is weighted to confirm the result in this race, the jockey booking looks a positive until you notice he is 0-14 when riding for this stable which is a concern so my stakes will be kept on the low side. 

Tilsworth Rose 17/2 6th -1pt

Lay bets Cable Guy +1pt, Swell Song +1pt, Rocksbury +1pt, Kelinda Dice +1pt, Hurricane Alert +1pt

Total +4pts

LINGFIELD 5.10 

With 11 runners over the minimum trip I would expect to find at least one or two front runners but no such luck which makes analysis many times harder, I am a great believer that what I call the make-up of the race, the draw and racing style of each runner, is a lot more vital than most punters realise, both Saaheq and Centurion Song don't like the going to be too fast, so I'm hoping they don't water the course too much as I can then eliminate the pair of them, The Princes Poet could go well here being my 2nd top rated on just 2021 times but is only 5th top rated on overall figures, Shamshon has been in good form lately but this 10yo gets gradually slower each year, GRANDFATHER TOM 20/1 (EW) has a time from 2020 that makes it my top rated but it hasn't run for 278 days but has won before after a break so it could go well if fully fit and I am hoping its an each way price but just in case its not fully wound up I will also be backing LEODIS DREAM 7/1 as the top weight is my top rated on 2021 times which is good enough for 2nd top on overall figures.

Leodis Dream 7/1 8th -1pt 
Grandfather Tom 40/1 9th -2pts 

Total -3pts  

LINGFIELD 5.40 

A 10 runner race but again what will lead I have no idea which is always a concern, I will lay Indian Sounds, Isabella Swan and Shoot To Kill if they are single figure prices because all 3 of them struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace, something has to lead so I am going to hope there early pace is a fast one, Manigordowho is my 3rd top rated and will be trying to stay on at the finish but with a slow early pace I doubt it will get there in time, NATURAL PATH 4/1 is my top rated on just 2021 times and its good enough for 2nd top spot on overall figures but THEOTHERSIDE 12/1 is top rated using a 2020 time, both trainers have had winners in the last 2 weeks and both horses have good trainer/jockey stats so I will go with backing both of them in this race.

Natural Path 4/1 1st +4pts 
Theotherside 12/1 -1pt 

Total +3pts

Total on the day +2pts

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