Only 5 runners for this class 3 sprint, Benny And The Jets may need this run for fitness and is also better when raced over a shorter trip, Global Warning has been in poor form lately and is the outsider in the field, I'm not convinced this surface is the favoured one for Mount Mogan although its best Newcastle rating would make it my top rated, Rovanlemi ha poor jockey stats 0-18 and may need a longer trip which leaves me with TOP BREEZE 11/4 I expect will be the favourite but is capable of leading all the way against today's opposition.
Top breeze 11/4 4th -1pt
Total -1pt
NEWCASTLE 3.45
I can see 4 front running types in this field of 14, I've marked 5 down as possible lays but looking at the tissue prices only Captain Corcoran might be of value to do so, Ballyare 9/2 is usually held up for a late run and its best rating from 2020 would make it my 2nd top rated while its best from 2021 would only put it in 4th top spot but isn't any value to do as an each way bet, For Peats Sake 11/1 likes to track the leaders and is 2nd top rated on just 2021 times but 3rd top overall so could be worth an each way punt, Lordsbridge Boy 6/1 is a front running type and has stall 1 which i am not sure is a positive on this straight course while my top rated ROYDMOOR 20/1 (EW) is also a front running type but has stall 10 and if getting to the front ought to prove hard to catch and at the price i would have to go with an each way punt.
Roydmoor 20/1 1st +20pts
Total +20pts
NEWCASTLE 5.45
Morty 7/2 has won its last 2 races so is in rude form but I still think its best distance is further than today's and with only one runner in this race known as a front runner this race might not be run to suit it and it would also need to improve on its best Tapeta figure from Wolverhampton, if Sharrabang is a single figure price I would look to lay it as this one wants a longer distance, COOL SPIRIT 12/1 my 4th top rated is the one I think will set the pace to the race and has a good draw in stall 14 so will be dangerous if allowed an easy lead, TOMILY 18/1 comes out 3rd best and usually likes to track the leaders and then run on at the finish, QAARAAT 12/1 also likes to track the leaders and comes out 2nd best using a 2020 c/d speed figure but has been running a stone below that level so far this year, ORIENTAL LILLY 11/2 comes out top rated using a 2019 figure but hasn't run over this c/d since then and is usually held up for a late surge, none of the selections have good trainer/jockey stats or the stable has been out of form recently so I will dutch all 4 of them to a total stake of two points.
Oriental Lily 11/2 2nd -0.5pts
Qaaraat 12/1 3rd -0.5pts
Cool Spirit 14/1 9th -0.5pts
Tomily 25/1 Unp -0.5pts
Lay bet: Sharrabang +1pt
Total -1pts
NEWCASTLE 6.15 Div I
I will hopefully be able to lay Birdie Bowers 15/2 in this first division, it is still a maiden after 11 runs, has poor trainer/jockey stats and the stable hasn't had a winner for 40 days from 10 runners, I think Lancashire Life 8/1 could set the pace to the race and it does come out 2nd best on my figures but the jockey/trainer stats with 3yo’s at this course is poor which puts me off a little but it could possibly make the frame, Atrafan comes out 4th best on my figures with The Grey Bay sitting in 3rd top spot and both can either be held up for a late run or track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish so either of these two could also make the frame but I will be putting my faith in the top weight REDZONE 9/2 who likes to track the early pacemakers before staying on the stronger at the finish and stall 12 should be ideal but the trainers recent 0-16 means my stake will be kept low.
Redzone 9/2 1st +4.5pts
Lay bets: Birdie Bowers +1pt
Total +5pts
NEWCASTLE 6.45 Div II
In this race I will look to lay Barrington 9/1 if its a single figure price because I don't think this surface really suits it whereas if this race was on polytrack it would probably be the one I would be backing, I have just 3lbs between Hurstwood, Paddy Power and The Mackem Torpedo in 6th to 4th top spots on my figures, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses with Red Allure and Sleight, the former can be held up or track the leaders while the latter is usually held up for a late burst but I will be back the 3yo FIRCOMBE HALL 13/2 who has a time from 2020 which makes it my top rated by 9lb’s but I have to admit its not been at that level so far this year but did indicate it was coming to hand when finishing 2nd last time out and could go one better here.
Fircombe Hall 1st +6.5pts
Total +6.5pts
Total on the day: +29.5pts
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