4:20 Southwell Racing Tips (18th January)

SOUTHWELL 4.20 

A ten runner race with three known front runners, Mokaman is my second top rated on recent 2022/21 Tapeta ratings with ROYDMOOR 9/2 sitting in top spot so this should be a decent early gallop so a lot of these might not be able to get involved in the finish, on just c/d runs on this new surface here I have it very very close between The Thin Blue Line 3/1 and Bert Kibbler 5/2 who finished first and third when they met last time out but there is only 5lbs between this time compared to 10lbs last time they met so the former should win this battle this time (if only things were that simple), the former hasn't any other data at either Newcastle or Wolverhampton to work with, so will need to improve for the switch to this course, while the latter comes out third best using its best figure from Wolverhampton but that is a few spots below Roydmoor who will therefore be carrying my money. 

Roydmoor 17.2 3rd -1pt

Total -1pt                                                                                                                                                             

SOUTHWELL 4.50 Div I 

The early pace to this race might be set by May The Sixth who comes out in third top spot on my speed figures but its been out of form in its latest runs and I think it will be an outsider, Rhubarb who is my fourth top rated may be better over further but may run on at the finish to make the frame, in second top spot comes Brandy Station but this one is another that hasn't shown much form wise in recent runs which leaves me with the top rated QAARAAT 5/1 who comes out top on both Tapeta ratings from elsewhere and on recent course and distance ratings but I am never confident when backing this horse who is a rule unto its self, you write it off and it runs well while if you bank on it it doesn't quite do the business but I cannot see an alternative to back so I will have to back it to a small stake. 

Qaaraat 4/1 4th -1pt

Total -1pt   

SOUTHWELL 5.20 Div II

There are three possible pacesetters to this race where Bernard Speirpoint 2/1 may do best but I think the leaders will be setting the race up for a finishing type so at the price I will probably look to lay it, Papas Girl 4/1 is my top rated on just recent course and distance times but has only one previous run at this distance on the Tapeta surface where it was held up in a fast run race and never got to the leaders, today's opposition gives it a chance to be much closer and then stay on strongly at the finish but the trainers 1-13 and the jockeys 1-24 doesn't fill me with enough confidence to make it a bet especially at such a short price, Cometh The Man comes out third best on Tapeta times from elsewhere and may be better when racing over further so may not get to the front in time in this race but could make the frame, Raabeh 33/1 comes out in top spot but is still a maiden after twenty three races and may have been flattered with its best rating where probably getting towed along in a fast run affair and the betting shows that the bookies agree with my reasoning, YOU'RE COOL 6/1 from stall nine may be able to follow Bernard Speirpoint form stall ten across to the rails and get a good early position from which to attack late on. 

You're Cool 6/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Bernard Speirpont -3pts

Total -4pts

SOUTHWELL 7.50 

Quite a hard race to analyse to a conclusion with quite a few lightly raced sorts in the race especially with no recognised front runners in the race, I am not sure I can find anything, again, at a single figure price, that I could lay. Aces 6/1 a hold up type comes out fourth best on my figures but this race might not be run to suit this one unless something unexpectedly goes off fast and sets a really fast gallop for this class of race, if I use a time from 2020 then Fircombe Hall comes out second best using a rating recorded at Newcastle but against it is that its another hold up type so may be suited to this race, my top rated is Independence Day but its been over three years since this one last won a race and has only ever won twice from over fifty runs, my top rated on just new times over this course and distance is DEEVIOUS BEAU 9/1 and it is also 3rd top rated on Tapeta speed figures from either Newcastle or Wolverhampton, it can either be held up or track the leaders, has good trainer/jockey stats and will be carrying my money but only a small stake.

Deevisious Beau 9/1 2nd -1pt

Total -1pt

Total on the day -7pts

6:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (10th January)

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30 

HURAIZ 10/1 has run recently on this surface but at Southwell and its best speed figure for this course and distance would leave it short of winning this race and might be a better prospect when racing over further. 

ORNATE 18/1 is one of the three known front running types in this race but this nine year old seems to be on a downward spiral and has been running quite poorly lately but its best from 2020 would make it my 2nd top rated but on recent form it has to be an outsider. 

IDOAPOLOGISE 12/1 hasn't any form on this course and may be able to show its true worth when racing over a longer distance and I think this is one that I will be looking to lay especially if its as low as the tissue price forecast of five to one. 

OOH IS IT 9/2 is the second of the potential pacesetters in this race but time wise it would need to improve to win this race but this four year old may be capable of improving so its one I couldn't lay or back. 

ATLYAH 5/1 this one is my top rated on just 2021/22 course and distance speed figures and that figure is good enough for third top on my overall figures, it has good trainer, 17%, and jockey, 22% stats so maybe its expected to run a big race here. 

CHARMING KID 6/1 this one is a possible front runner but only when its allowed an easy lead and can set a slower pace than usual which I don't think will happen here and needs to improve time wise to feature in this race and could be worth laying if a single figure price. 

SHOW ME A SUNSET 9/2 has a relatively low speed figure rating for a class four race and i think this one is another that will be a better prospect when racing over a longer distance and has only average trainer/jockey stats so might be worth laying at the price. 

ROYDMOOR 5/1 is the third horse that I think could lead this race, it has a rating which is good enough for 2nd top spot on just 2021/22 ratings but its best figure from 2020 makes it my top rated and could therefore lead all the way. 

THE DALEY EXPRESS 14/1 can be held up or track the leaders but it hasn't shown much time wise since 2020 and age may be catching up with this eight year old and I expect it will be a double figure price. 

ZAPPER CASS 16/1 has relatively slow times over this course and distance and I think that might be due to it looking as though a longer distance would see it in a better light and I expect it will be an outsider. 

SUMMARY: There is 4 horses that have been known to lead before although I doubt Charming Kid will be fast enough to lead in this race but I am hoping that ROYDMOOR 5/1 can lead and then prove too fast and strong for others that like to race at the fore and being my top rated using a 2020 figure it recorded at Newcastle but just in case the front runner battle too hard with each other and fade nearing the finish then ATLYAH 5/1 could be the one to prosper and it is my top rated on just recent, 2021/22, speed figures and has good trainer/jockey stats which makes me connections are expecting a big run from it and i will be backing them both in this race to cover the angles.

Roydmoor 11/2 3rd -1pt 

Atlyah 5/1 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day -2pts

2:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (22nd December)

WOLVERHAMPTON 2.30 

In this 5 furlong dash I can see 5 horses that like or can lead and with a bit of luck this race could be won from the front as long as they don't go off too fast and fade badly approaching the finish, maybe Araifjan 7/1 might be worth taking on with a lay bet as it usually runs better over a longer distance, Red Walls comes out 3rd top and is a possible pacesetter but is drawn in stall 10 of the 11 runners, Savalas coming out of stall 6 comes out 2nd top on my figures and it is another one that has been known to lead before while my top rated is ROYDMOOR 9/2 who won for me last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here as long as stall 9 doesn't prove to be its downfall but time wise I think it should be fast enough away to gain a good early prominent position and if reproducing its best rating it would follow up here with a few spots in hand. 

WOLVERHAMPTON 3.00 

For a class 4 affair this isn't the greatest of races, I can only suggest a couple that might be worth taking an each way punt on, TRIGGERED 20/1 (EW) comes out top using a time it recorded at Newcastle in 2020 but hasn't any form over this course while the jockey has an overall win ratio of 20% for the stable but it does drop to 13% on the stables older horses, PORTELET BAY 10/1 (EW) who comes out 2nd best on overall figures but is top rated on just 2021 course and distance times and the jockey has a decent 18% win ratio on the stables 3yo’s. 

SOUTHWELL 7.30 

I will look to lay Porterinthejungle 6/1 who may need a longer distance to show its true merit and this race might not be run to suit it with just one natural front running type in the race and that horse is better over 5 furlongs so I'm not sure if there will be a fast early pace while if there is a decent early pace then Capla Spirit 6/1 may struggle to stay the distance, Royal Advice and Tathmeen are my joint 3rd top rated so could make the frame, I've got BURROW'S SEESIDE 8/1 (EW) as my 2nd top rated and this one usually races in midfield before staying on at the finish but it will need to bounce back to form to win this race, my top rated is STORM OVER 33/1 (EW) another who will need to return to form, both are capable on their day and hopefully a couple of each way wagers will pay dividends.

Lay bets only if single-figure odds at sp.

1:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (30th November)

LINGFIELD 1.45 

Only 5 runners for this class 3 sprint, Benny And The Jets may need this run for fitness and is also better when raced over a shorter trip, Global Warning has been in poor form lately and is the outsider in the field, I'm not convinced this surface is the favoured one for Mount Mogan although its best Newcastle rating would make it my top rated, Rovanlemi ha poor jockey stats 0-18 and may need a longer trip which leaves me with TOP BREEZE 11/4 I expect will be the favourite but is capable of leading all the way against today's opposition.

Top breeze 11/4 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 3.45 

I can see 4 front running types in this field of 14, I've marked 5 down as possible lays but looking at the tissue prices only Captain Corcoran might be of value to do so, Ballyare 9/2 is usually held up for a late run and its best rating from 2020 would make it my 2nd top rated while its best from 2021 would only put it in 4th top spot but isn't any value to do as an each way bet, For Peats Sake 11/1 likes to track the leaders and is 2nd top rated on just 2021 times but 3rd top overall so could be worth an each way punt, Lordsbridge Boy 6/1 is a front running type and has stall 1 which i am not sure is a positive on this straight course while my top rated ROYDMOOR 20/1 (EW) is also a front running type but has stall 10 and if getting to the front ought to prove hard to catch and at the price i would have to go with an each way punt. 

Roydmoor 20/1 1st +20pts 

Total +20pts

NEWCASTLE 5.45 

Morty 7/2 has won its last 2 races so is in rude form but I still think its best distance is further than today's and with only one runner in this race known as a front runner this race might not be run to suit it and it would also need to improve on its best Tapeta figure from Wolverhampton, if Sharrabang is a single figure price I would look to lay it as this one wants a longer distance, COOL SPIRIT 12/1 my 4th top rated is the one I think will set the pace to the race and has a good draw in stall 14 so will be dangerous if allowed an easy lead, TOMILY 18/1 comes out 3rd best and usually likes to track the leaders and then run on at the finish, QAARAAT 12/1 also likes to track the leaders and comes out 2nd best using a 2020 c/d speed figure but has been running a stone below that level so far this year, ORIENTAL LILLY 11/2 comes out top rated using a 2019 figure but hasn't run over this c/d since then and is usually held up for a late surge, none of the selections have good trainer/jockey stats or the stable has been out of form recently so I will dutch all 4 of them to a total stake of two points. 

Oriental Lily 11/2 2nd -0.5pts 

Qaaraat 12/1 3rd -0.5pts 

Cool Spirit 14/1 9th -0.5pts

Tomily 25/1 Unp -0.5pts 

Lay bet: Sharrabang +1pt 

Total -1pts

NEWCASTLE 6.15 Div I 

I will hopefully be able to lay Birdie Bowers 15/2 in this first division, it is still a maiden after 11 runs, has poor trainer/jockey stats and the stable hasn't had a winner for 40 days from 10 runners, I think Lancashire Life 8/1 could set the pace to the race and it does come out 2nd best on my figures but the jockey/trainer stats with 3yo’s at this course is poor which puts me off a little but it could possibly make the frame, Atrafan comes out 4th best on my figures with The Grey Bay sitting in 3rd top spot and both can either be held up for a late run or track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish so either of these two could also make the frame but I will be putting my faith in the top weight REDZONE 9/2 who likes to track the early pacemakers before staying on the stronger at the finish and stall 12 should be ideal but the trainers recent 0-16 means my stake will be kept low. 

Redzone 9/2 1st +4.5pts 

Lay bets: Birdie Bowers +1pt 

Total +5pts

NEWCASTLE 6.45 Div II 

In this race I will look to lay Barrington 9/1 if its a single figure price because I don't think this surface really suits it whereas if this race was on polytrack it would probably be the one I would be backing, I have just 3lbs between Hurstwood, Paddy Power and The Mackem Torpedo in 6th to 4th top spots on my figures, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses with Red Allure and Sleight, the former can be held up or track the leaders while the latter is usually held up for a late burst but I will be back the 3yo FIRCOMBE HALL 13/2 who has a time from 2020 which makes it my top rated by 9lb’s but I have to admit its not been at that level so far this year but did indicate it was coming to hand when finishing 2nd last time out and could go one better here.

Fircombe Hall 1st +6.5pts 

Total +6.5pts 

Total on the day:  +29.5pts