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Thursday, 16 December 2021

11:50 Southwell Racing Tips (17th December)

SOUTHWELL 11.50 

There is four amongst this field of eleven that have been known to lead before so it should be a true run affair, I will look to lay both Tropics 8/1 and The Bell Conductor 7/1 as I think both of them are better on the other All-Weather surface, there are others but I expect they will not be of value to lay, Outrage has been known to lead and could run a decent race if at its best but the trainers 0-5 record at this course and the jockeys 0-9 for the stable puts me off its chances, Charming Kid is another possible pacesetter but the trainer hasn't had a winner in over a month which puts me off this one, as for finding the winner I will be back two horses, one that could set the pace or at least be near the front from the off and one that comes from off the pace, if SECRETINTHEPARK 9/2 does get to the front on this five furlong straight course it could prove hard to catch while my other horse GIOGIOBBO 7/2 who has already won on the new surface here likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly in the closing stages and may have been found a decent opportunity to follow in this race but as usual I prefer to cover the angles as its sometimes hard to know which tactics will win the race. 

Secretinthepark 11/2 7th -1pt
Giogobbo 4/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bets The Bell Conductor -6pts

Total -8pts    

KEMPTON 7.45 

Of the twelve runners in this race seven of them are three year olds who could still have some improvement to come but I am hoping its not in this race, I have a few marked down as possible lays but maybe only Coolagh Magic 6/1 will be of any value to lay, I think this horse will be much better when racing over a longer distance, there is a couple of known front running types and one of them Julie Johnston is my 4th top rated so could go well from a prominent position, Griggy may need to be held up here if its to have a chance of winning as it seems a better horse over a shorter distance but still comes out 3rd best on my speed figures, Lesha comes out in 2nd top spot but this ones best time comes from Chelmsford while its best over this course and distance isn't good enough to register on my figures so I'm not really sure what to expect but it could run well but my money will be riding on the other horse that's been known to lead before and if BARRINGTON 11/2 gets to the front from stall 2 it could gain control of the rails and then prove hard to catch.

Barrington 15/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Coolagh Magic +1pt

Total 0pts 

Total on the day  -8pts

All lay bets must be single figure odds at sp else do not qualify

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