4:15 Southwell Racing Tips (20th October)

SOUTHWELL 2.30 Div I

Not a bad race for a class 6 affair with 12 runners and 3 possible pacesetters, both Chief Of Staff 7/2 and Cooperation 5/1 who like to front run could go well here and possibly do enough to make the frame but are not each way prices, Sovereign Slipper 13/2 might just need this run for fitness after nearly a year off so maybe worth laying. This is the kind of race where I lay 2 horses to cover the options, the improving 3yo ELDEYAAR 7/1 is another possible pacesetter and if getting to the front could prove very hard to catch being my top rated on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere while DARK SIDE THUNDER 11/2 is usually held up for a late run and is my top rated using just course and distance ratings so going with 2 bets seems the right way to go in this race. 

Dark Side Thunder 11/2 6th -1pt 

Eldeyaar 10/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bet Sovereign Slipper +1pt 

Total -1pt  

SOUTHWELL 3.05 Div II

This 2nd division is another competitive race for the class, the early pace could well be set by Ahlawi 8/1 but it would need to improve time wise but if allowed an easy lead from stall 3 it could be dangerous but I doubt that will happen with a few horses that like to track the leaders it should ensure there's a good early gallop, Twilight Secret 5/1 has been in good form lately but its best form has come on the Polytrack surface so I will look to lay this one especially if its a short price which is forecast, I am going to take a punt in this race with what will hopefully be an outsider, CHOOKIE DUNEDIN 14/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish, its been known to bounce back to form before without warning but did run quite well when finishing 3rd 2 runs ago and the trainer has a 19% win ratio here with their older horses and the jockey has a 2-7 record when riding for the stable and at the price has to put up as an each way punt. 

Chookie Dunedin 14/1 6th -2pts 

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 4.15 

A full house of 14 for this dash with 5 known front runners Ooh Is It 6/1 can go well from the fore in its races but would need to improve time wise to win this race and might be worth laying, as for the winner I think this dash might be won from the front but I cannot split 2 horses *GIOGIOBBO 12/1 (EW) who is my top rated on ratings recorded over this course and distance and has been known before to win when coming back from a break from racing and *TRUE HERO 25/1 (EW) who is also coming back after a break from racing and i'm hoping this one will be an each way price as it has run well before after a break and the jockey booking looks significant as he has a 44% win ratio on the stables older horse and a good 38% win ratio on all ages that hes ridden and such big prices I will have to go with each way wagers. 

*NR 

Total 0pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.15 

This is a tricky looking sprint, 11 taking part with 3 known front running types, Spangled Mac 6/1 is forecast to be the favourite but I think it might be better served over a longer distance so one I would lay if of value to do so, Strong Power 9/1 produces higher ratings on Polytrack so might be another one to lay, Aberama Gold 9/1 is capable of producing a good rating but hasn't been at that level so far this year but still could go well if repeating its previous best. May Sonic is a possible pacesetter but this doesn't appear to be its favoured surface, Tippy Toes another possible pacesetter hasn't any form on this surface but its best from Lingfield on the Polytrack surface would make it competitive here and could possibly make the frame, this race could be ideal for DUBAI STATION 15/2 who likes to race in midfield or be held up for a late run and its best rating, recorded this year, would see it back in the winners circle.

Dubai Station 17/2 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Spangled Mac +1pt (remember we don't lay horses over 9/1 sp) 

Total 0pts

Total on the day -3pts

1:20 Leicester Racing Tips (23rd May)

LEICESTER 1.20 

Afield of 9 runners in this class five apprentice jockeys race, I'm not sure what to expect from Alablaq who therefore could be a bit of a hidden danger as its best time from the AW surface at Lingfield but hasn't any form over this distance on turf, as for something to lay both *Follow Your Heart 15/2 and Mostallim 7/1 fit the bill, the former's trainer is 0-42 at this course and doesn't seem to like good to firm ground while the latter races as though a longer distance would suit it better, I've got Rainbow Mirage as my 2nd top rated but its only win on good to firm ground was in a class 6 race, the only horse that's known as a front running type is GIOGIOBBO 6/1 who also happens to be my top rated using just ratings recorded on grass and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch. 

*NR

Giogiobbo 6/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Mostallim +1pt 

Total 0pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 3.40 

Ten runners in this class 6 race but this time there is three known front running types so it should be a true run affair although all 3 of them are forecast to be double figure prices and none are in my top 3 ratings, I think Arzaak 6/1 is a better prospect when racing on the Polytrack surface so might be worth laying in this race, I will also be looking to lay Glorious Charmer 11/4 as the trainer is 0-11 in the last 2 weeks and I think it will probably need a longer distance on the AW surfaces as most of its best form has come over further, Nachom comes out as my 3rd top rated and is normally held up for a late run, sitting in 2nd top spot is Billy Dylan 14/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on dourly at the finish so could be worth an each way interest but i will be pinning my hopes on ADMIRABLE LAD 14/1 (EW) who also likes to track the leaders and then runs on well at the finish and at the price i have to give it as an each way wager.

Admirable Lad 14/1 7th -2pts

Lay bet Glorious Charmer +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt 

 

5:00 Southwell Racing Tips (29th December)

SOUTHWELL 5.00 

An eight runner race but I am still treading very carefully at this course with the new Tapeta surface and to be honest there isn't a lot I can say about a lot of today's runners but while looking through their form at Newcastle and Wolverhampton I might have found something worthwhile, Red Walls who is the only natural front running type I can see in this race won in a decent time fairly recently but its last two runs have been poor but could possibly go well at a good price, Scale Force and Show Me A Sunset are others that could go well if running to their previous best but I will be taking a punt with a small win on GIOGIOBBO 7/1 who won the time before last before performing badly last time out but looks the value call in this race, it usually stays on strongly at the finish over this distance and it should have a good target to aim at which is its preferred style of racing but as I said very small stakes or even leave the race alone until the form settles down at this course and new surface. 

Giogiobbo 14/1 4th -1pt

Total -1pts

SOUTHWELL 700 

A full house for 14 runners for this race with plenty of early dash in the race, Steelriver is capable on its day and is running ok lately without winning, Triggered would have every chance using its best time from 2020 at Newcastle but that is a straight 6 furlongs where there is a bend to negotiate at the distance at this course,the 3yo Tipperary Tyger could go well if its not squeezed up too much in the run to the bend, Politics from stall 1 could gain control of the rails and is my 4th top rated so another that could go well, I will once again take a punt as long as its a double figure price because stall 14 might not be ideal for THEOTHERSIDE 14/1 (EW) who likes to either lead or press the leaders but if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and hopefully an each way punt will pay dividends but once again keep any stakes low if you do bet or be more sensible that me and keep your money in your pocket.

Theotherside 40/1 4th -2pts 

Total -2pts

Total on the day -3pts

11:50 Southwell Racing Tips (17th December)

SOUTHWELL 11.50 

There is four amongst this field of eleven that have been known to lead before so it should be a true run affair, I will look to lay both Tropics 8/1 and The Bell Conductor 7/1 as I think both of them are better on the other All-Weather surface, there are others but I expect they will not be of value to lay, Outrage has been known to lead and could run a decent race if at its best but the trainers 0-5 record at this course and the jockeys 0-9 for the stable puts me off its chances, Charming Kid is another possible pacesetter but the trainer hasn't had a winner in over a month which puts me off this one, as for finding the winner I will be back two horses, one that could set the pace or at least be near the front from the off and one that comes from off the pace, if SECRETINTHEPARK 9/2 does get to the front on this five furlong straight course it could prove hard to catch while my other horse GIOGIOBBO 7/2 who has already won on the new surface here likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly in the closing stages and may have been found a decent opportunity to follow in this race but as usual I prefer to cover the angles as its sometimes hard to know which tactics will win the race. 

Secretinthepark 11/2 7th -1pt

Giogobbo 4/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bets The Bell Conductor -6pts

Total -8pts    

KEMPTON 7.45 

Of the twelve runners in this race seven of them are three year olds who could still have some improvement to come but I am hoping its not in this race, I have a few marked down as possible lays but maybe only Coolagh Magic 6/1 will be of any value to lay, I think this horse will be much better when racing over a longer distance, there is a couple of known front running types and one of them Julie Johnston is my 4th top rated so could go well from a prominent position, Griggy may need to be held up here if its to have a chance of winning as it seems a better horse over a shorter distance but still comes out 3rd best on my speed figures, Lesha comes out in 2nd top spot but this ones best time comes from Chelmsford while its best over this course and distance isn't good enough to register on my figures so I'm not really sure what to expect but it could run well but my money will be riding on the other horse that's been known to lead before and if BARRINGTON 11/2 gets to the front from stall 2 it could gain control of the rails and then prove hard to catch.

Barrington 15/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Coolagh Magic +1pt

Total 0pts 

Total on the day  -8pts

All lay bets must be single figure odds at sp else do not qualify