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Friday, 31 December 2021

3:28 Southwell Racing Tips (1st January)

SOUTHWELL 3.28 

MUSCIKA 8/1 was unlucky on Thursday when finishing 3rd over 6 furlongs and this drop down in trip might not be a good move and i would look to lay it if it remains a single figure price.

MULZIM has only a slow time from its only previous course and distance run and has no winning form over this distance on this surface but is an outsider. 

PROP FORWARD hasn't run over this distance before and I am not convinced the drop down in distance will suit it and it might need the run after being off for 3 months so worth a lay at 3/1. 

DAVE DEXTER will I think be an outsider in this race and on its form on turf I am not sure this surface will suit it but I expect it to be an outsider. 

ONE NIGHT STAND hasn't any form over this distance apart from its last run over this course and distance and it will need to improve on that run and may be better over further. 

ORNATE is one of the possible pacesetters in this race and on just the recent course runs on this new surface it is my top rated so could go well from the front and might be worth an each way punt. 

HURAIZ usually likes to track the leaders but races as though further will suit it better and I would lay it if of any value which 13/2 is just about value. 

BE PROUD ran poorly here on its last run but has a rating from 2019 which would make it my top rated so could be worth an each way interest. 

RESTLESS ENDEAVOUR 10/1 this may not be its favoured surface and looks a better prospect when racing over a longer distance and one I will lay if a single figure price.

ROVANLEMI hasn't any form on this surface over this distance and looks a better horse when running over further and would be one to lay if of value to do so which 7/2 is. 

OOH IS IT has a time from Wolverhampton this year which would make this front running type my 2nd top rated and could go well enough to make the frame but is 7/1 an each way price.

REBEL REDEMPTION maybe outclassed now that it has been raised in class and also may need further to how its true worth. 

SUMMARY Both of the front runners could go well here and I will hopefully be having an each way punt on ORNATE 28/1 (EW) who is my top rated on this years surface form and over this new surface here and that was encouraging being its 1st run since August, top rated on overall figures is BE PROUD 25/1 (EW) who will need to spring back to form which it has done before without prior warning and will hopefully be another worth an each way punt as I think both are overpriced. 

Be Proud 25/1 6th -2pts
Ornate 28/1 8th -2pts 

Lay bets Prop Forward -2.75pts, Rovanlemi +1pt 

Total -5.75pts

SOUTHWELL 4.30 

THE THIN BLUE LINE hasn't any other form on this surface and over this distance and will need to improve time wise on its recent c/d run on this new surface so worth a small lay at 10/3. 

MOONRAKER 9/1 comes out 3rd best on just recent course and distance times but will be trying to stay on nearing the finish but may be better over further and one I would look to lay as long as it stays a single figure price. 

SON AND SANNIE 16/1 comes out 3rd top rated using times recorded on this surface but at the other 2 courses and could possibly make the frame. 

NOT NOW ZEB a possible pacemaker hasn't any surface form apart from its one run over this course and distance recently which resulted in a very slow time.

GRANDFATHER TOM is another possible pacesetter but would need to improve time wise to win this race and I doubt the race will be won from the front. 

GIORGIO VASARI is no wins or placed efforts from 6 previous runs on an artificial surface and may prefer a longer trip and has been in poor form in latest runs. 

HIGHEST AMBITION comes out top rated on just recent speed figures but only just and 4th top on this surface but elsewhere so could go well. 

IMPRESSOR 14/1 my 2nd top rated on just this months c/d speed figures and usually races in midfield and could do enough to at least make the frame. 

STRONG POWER 12/1 comes out 2nd top on recent times on the Tapeta surface this ones from Wolverhampton and could possibly make the frame. 

PORTELET BAY would need to improve time wise to win this race and it races as though a longer distance would be better for it.

BERT KIBBER could possibly be the one to set the pace to this race but I doubt it will do enough to hold on for the win and a value lay at 5/1. 

JUMIRA BRIDGE is my top rated on ratings recorded at bot Wolverhampton and Newcastle but has been off form on recent runs but can spring back to form without warning. 

HELMORA has only got poor form to its name and i expect it will be one of the outsiders in this race.

ORIENTAL LILLY may be outclassed in class 5 races and it may also need further so one to lay if of value to do so. 

SUMMARY: I will be backing two horses in this race, firstly HIGHEST AMBITION 7/1 who has done the best rating of those that have races here since they laid the new Tapeta surface and the trainer has a good strike rate at this course and could go one better than when finishing 2nd last time out, I will also be backing JUMIRA BRIDGE 50/1 who I tipped up the other day when it later became a non runner and if on a going day this one will be finishing fast nearing the finish and I cannot let it run without a bet at the price.

Highest Ambition 15/2 5th -1pt 
Jumira Bridge 66/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bets Bert Kibbler -4pts, Thin Bue Line +1pt

Total -5pts

Total on the day  -10.75pts

Lay bets must be priced single figures at sp 

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