1:50 Doncaster Racing Tips (26th March)

DONCASTER 1.50 

I'm not sure what the going will be but I'm hoping its at least good ground and if it is good then I could add Mo Celita to my list of lays as it seems much better when there's some cut in the ground, others that I will look to lay are Mondammej who might be better racing over a shorter distance and may also be outclassed at Listed level and Volatile Analyst may also not be up to winning at this level, my top rated is GARRUS 15/8 who is actually dropping down in class compared to its last few runs and has won twice before when returning from a break from racing I don't usually like to back favourites but at this level its a different story and if fully fit it looks a strong bet, add on the stables 21% strike rate at this course and the jockeys 43% win ratio for the stable everything points to connections expecting it to be visiting the winners enclosure. 

Garrus 15/8 15/8 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

KEMPTON 3.55

On paper a cracking class 2 sprint with 8 runners so I'm hoping they all run and then I can have an each way wager, its a tricky looking race and I don't think there's anything I could lay with any confidence so that's not the way to go to make a profit from this race, Ejtilaab and Repartee will make sure there's a fast early gallop by making sure the leader isn't able to set a slower place than usual but I'm hoping PAPA STOUR 11/1 (EW) can lead and then prove hard to catch, the 7lb claiming apprentice is 0-13 for the stable which is a bit off-putting but the 7lb claim could swing things in its favour and if an each way price then that will be the way I will go but only to small stakes. 

Papa Stour 18/1 6th -2pts 

Total -2pts  

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30 Div I

This division looks very poor with only 2 having recorded a rating on my speed figures but even then they are low ratings, my 2nd top rated Calins Lad 10/3 is forecast to be the favourite and it might well win this race as my top rated Porfin 7/1 can struggle to stay the distance if there's a fast early pace and i have no idea if there will be a strong early pace or not so it might not be troubled by the distance in this race,so I will take a watching brief and leave this race alone. 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00 Div II

I have got six with ratings in this 2nd division, I will start with the lay/s and 1st on my list is Jack Ryan 4/1 who is 0-17 on the AW surfaces and the jockey is 0-15 for the stable, Highest Ambition 12/1 may struggle to stay the distance with 2 known front running types in the race especially as they both have recorded speed figures, Decision Maker 8/1 will also be on this list if its still a single figure price at the off, Eye Of The Water 6/1 is top rated using just recent Southwell ratings and comes out 3rd top on my overall figures so being a front running type it could go well but its been 58 days since the stable last had a winner and has only won once from 19 runs on the AW tracks but it could make the frame, Red Alert’s 3/1 poor jockey stats, 1-29, puts me off this one a bit but does come out in 2nd top spot but isn't an each way price, it doesn't seem a race to be betting in too heavily but I will have to side with AMAZING AMAYA 6/1 who has the stall 1 draw and could come from off the pace and pick up the leaders nearing the finish so a small bet could pay dividends. 

Amazing Amaya 15/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Jack Ryan +1pt

Total 0pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30 

A nice looking class 4 race with 12 runners and a guaranteed decent early gallop, firstly I will be looking to lay both Melly's Flyer (NON_RUNNER) who might not find this surface ideal also the trainer is 0-21 with their older horses at this course and Candescence 11/1 who may need further to show its best form also the jockey is 1-57 for the stable, speed figure-wise Aramis Grey could go well again here but with the trainer not having had a winner in the last month or so its not for me win wise, Invincible Larne 11/1 is my 3rd top rated but the trainer has a poorish 8% win ratio at this course and the jockey is 0-6 for the stable but could still make the frame, Water Of Leith 6/1 is well weighted on its best rating but I'm not sure its quite up to this class and the jockey is 0-7 for the stable which leaves me with INEVITABLE OUTCOME 16/1 (EW) who takes over top spot when taking off the apprentices 3lb claim, it has been beaten in a photograph at this class before while the jockey has a 19% win ratio on the stables older horses so i am hoping its an each way price just in case its not quite up to class 4 standard.

Inevitable Outcome 16/1 8th -2pts 

Total - 2pts

Total on the day -5pts

1:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (26th February)

LINGFIELD 1.30 

EXALTED ANGEL has won in this class of race before and using a 2021 speed figure it recorded at Wolverhampton last year it comes out as my top rated. 

LORD RIDDIFORD looks the one most likely to set the pace to this race but would need to improve time wise to hold on for the win and might be worth laying. 

MONDAMMEJ hasn't any distance form on this surface while its best from Wolverhampton would make it my 3rd top rated.

ONE NIGHT STAND races as though a longer distance would suit it better and I doubt it can pick up the leader but will probably be the outsider in this race. 

STRONG POWER has been running well lately winning its last 3 races and comes out 2nd top on my figures so could run well again here.

TONE THE BARONE is one that can usually be relied upon to do its best and is another that could run well in this race. 

SUMMARY: Only 6 runners with Lord Riddiford 3/1 the one that looks most likely to lead in this race but I might look to lay it as it needs to improve time wise to win this race, all of the runners apart from one have been running in class 2 handicaps and probably deserve the chance to compete at this level but I will stick with the proven and back the only one that's proven in this class so my money will be riding on EXALTED ANGEL 3/1 who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and does have good trainer/jockey stats. 

Exalted Angel 3/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Lord Riddiford +1pt

Total 0pts

LINGFIELD 3.10 

Another 6 runner race in class 2 this time and to be honest I'm not sure what to make of this race, I've got Soldiers Minute as my 4th top rated on a 2022 speed figure, Fizzy Feet a possible pacesetter as my 3rd top rated again using a 2022 rating, Crimson Sand comes out in 2nd top spot using a 2021 speed figure with Marks Bear in top spot again using a 2021 rating but it is very close between them and the other pair, If You Dare another possible front runner and Asadjumerah I have marked down as possible hidden dangers so I'm going to leave this race alone. 

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.45 

To be honest this isn't a good race for a class 4 affair but at least Night Narcissus 6/1 will make sure there's a decent early pace but being my 4th top rated I doubt it can hold on for the win but could make the frame so maybe lay the win part is the way to go I think I can add Annie Rose 7/1 to my lay list as I think its better on the Polytrack surface, of the others Camerata, Pacifico and Sky Storm are lightly raced sorts and could be capable of improvement but I'm hoping its not in this race, ARAMIS GREY 11/2 is my 2nd top rated and its versatile with its racing tactics and that does include leading and as its drawn in stall 1 I think it will be ridden from the front and if it does get to the front it could be very hard to catch if it reproduces its best and I only have one horse INEVITABLE OUTCOME higher so I will be backing them both to cover the angles. 

Aramis Grey 11/2 4th -1pt 

Inevitable Outcome 15/2 6th -1pt 

Lay bets Night Narcissus -3.33pts, Annie Rose +1pt 

Total -4.33pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.15 

Back down to class 6 here with 3 known front running types in the race but none of them are in my top 4 rated so it looks something coming from off the pace will win this race, I have a couple that I could look to lay but the betting will as usual make the final decision, Porfin 9/2 may find this distance stretches its stamina with a fast early pace and with 3 front running types it should be fast run so one to lay along with Miss Bella Brand 8/1 who might not really like this Tapeta surface, Al Asef will be running on and comes out 4th best on my figures using Wolverhampton or Newcastle ratings and 2nd best when using a recent Southwell speed figure so could make the frame, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses firstly Red Alert 6/1 who could do enough to make the frame if it runs to its best but isn't what I consider an each way price, the other joint 2nd top rated is STEELRIVER 14/1 (EW) who is also my top rated on Southwell ratings, its usually held up for a late run and the booked jockey, Jamie Spencer is a master riding from off the pace and coming with a late rattle so will be carrying some of my money in an each way wager, the rest will be riding on DEPUTISE 3/1 who ran a good race in a fast time when finishing 2nd this year and has been found a chance to get back to winning ways.

Deputise 7/2 6th -1pt 

Steelriver 18/1 9th -2pts 

Lay bets: Porfin +1pt 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day -6.33pts

12:10 Southwell Racing Tips (21st January)

SOUTHWELL 12.10 

Typical, there's 5 sprints for me to analyse today but my internet is down but luckily I can log onto my neighbour's but boy is it slow but better than nothing but taking me ages to do each individual race. My thread for each race will contain what I think is important while keeping it as brief as possible. Denzil's Laughing 6/1 will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late to win this race but being my 3rd top rated I'm not sure if it will be worth laying, Glen Rosa 6/1 has a fast time from Wolverhampton but that is beginning to look like a fluke time where it got towed along in a fast run race so could be one worth laying, using a time from Newcastle in 2020 Ghaallya 18/1 comes out in 2nd top spot but I will be backing and hoping that UBAHHA 11/2 can get to the front and if doing so could be hard to catch. 

Ubahha 6/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.25 

There's two known front runners, Airshow my 4th top rated and Aljari my 3rd top rated, in this seven runner race but I think they may be setting it up for something coming off the pace, Kratos 5/1 could be an improver but it only ran once last year and its speed figures from 2020 were relatively low so I would lay it if of value to do so, Endowed comes out second best on my figures but hasn't been in good form in its latest races, I will be backing INEVITABLE OUTCOME 5/2 who is my top rated on recent 2021/22 speed figures and its best rating from Lingfield makes it my top rated on overall figures. 

Inevitable Outcome 11/2 7th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 5.30 

I am not quite sure what will set the pace to this race but I'm hoping something does set a decent gallop, the top weight Sugar Baby 3/1 is dropped down and could go well in this race but is only 5th top on my figures although there is only 2lbs between 5th and 2nd top rated, joint 3rd top are Muatadel and Mansfield while Gorgeous General comes out in 2nd top spot using a time recorded here in 2020 while i will be backing STROXX 7/2 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and will be relying on a fast pace and others fading as its stamina kicks into play. 

Stroxx 5/1 8th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 6.30 

This is another of those low class stakes races where they are all carrying the same weight, there are a few runners that are way out of form but are biggish prices and no value to lay, Oakenshield has a good rating from 2020 but hasn't been anywhere near that level since then, Royal Heart 9/1, Sharrabang 16/1 and Wicklow Warrior 20/1 are my 5th to 3rd top rated with just 2lbs between the trio and you might fancy one to make the frame but which one I have no idea, Sleight 18/1 comes out in joint top spot but hasn't been in great form lately and its 78 days since the stable last had a winner so I will be leaving it alone and will be backing ATRAFAN 5/1 who won last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here. 

Atrafan 5/1 1st +5pts  + F/C £372,63

Total +5pts

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

Toussarak 5/1 has a high rating from a time recorded at Chelmsford but doesn't seem as good on this Tapeta surface and usually stays on at the finish but might be worth laying on this surface, Tommy Taylor 11/4 races as though further would suit it better and may be worth laying here at the price as its win last time out was in a slow run affair and may have flattered it, Idoapologise 6/1 also races as though a longer trip would suit it better and maybe worth taking on if of value, Global Warning 10/3 is 3rd top on my figures and its a front running type so it could prove hard to catch for most of these but I do have GOWANLAD 10/1 (EW) rated higher and if it reproduces its best c/d time from last year it would be winning with a few spots in hand but as usual at the price it has to be an each way wager.

Gowanlad 10/1 9th -2pt 

Lay bet Tommy Taylor -2.75pts

Total -4.75pts

Total on the day -2.75pts

2:15 Lingfield Racing Tips (7th January)

LINGFIELD 2.15 

A poor turnout of just five runner for this class 2 race, there is two front running types amongst them in the shape of Marnie James and Ornate and of the pair maybe the latter will do best of them as it does come out top on my ratings using a time from 2020 while the former comes out in 2nd top spot on just 2021/22 times, Strong Power won convincingly last time out and deserves a shot at this level, Shallow Hal might be worth taking on if a single figure price as its usually better over a longer distance, the top weight Tone The Barone 5/6 is giving a lot away in this race as its official figure is between 12 and 19 pounds higher than the others, it is forecast to be the hot favourite but I am not convinced so maybe taking this one on with a lay bet is the value call in this race as you lose very little laying a hot favourite. 

Lay bet Tone The Barone +1pt (good work from Eric laying an odds-on to lose) 

Total +1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.00 

Only seven runners in this race and again there is two known front running types, Jessie Pye and Notoriously Risky who comes out 3rd best on my figures so should do best of the pair, I'm not sure if there is anything of value to lay in this race so I will be having a small wager on the top weight INEVITABLE OUTCOME 9/2 who is usually held up for a late run and this race could be run to suit it. 

Inevitable Outcome 9/2 1st +4.5pts

Total +4.5pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30 

This is one of those class 6 stakes race for horses with an official rating of 50 or less so in other words the bottom of the barrel, one piece of advice if other races follow the same pattern, the form in these low class races from class 5 downwards are much more reliable than they are on turf, I've no idea of why unless its the varying going that makes them impossible to analyse. I think Final Verse 5/1 needs further to show its best so maybe worth laying in this race, Glen Rosa my 4th top rated is a possible pacesetter in this race, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses, Captain Ryan is another possible pacesetter but it only comes out 2nd top using a speed figure from 2019 so I'm not sure if it can repeat that figure as its best from last year was way below that level, the other 2nd top rated is BLUELLA 8/1 and that is using a 2021 time and should be staying on in the closing stages of the race but I do have BLACKCURRENT 6/1 rated higher but in this ones case the speed figure comes from Newcastle which it recorded last time out last month and if able to reproduce that figure it would be winning this race a shade cosily and does have good jockey stats.

Blackcurrent 6/1 1st (dht) +3pts  

Bluella 12/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bet Final Verse +1pt 

Total +3pts 

Total on the day +8.5pts 

7:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (17th October)

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00 

A 11 runner dash with 3 known front runners so it should be a true run affair, there is very little on times between The Defiant, Thegreyvtrain and Smokey and any of them could do enough to make the frame, Dark Side Dream is a front runner and from stall 2 it could gain control of the rails and its best time from 2019 would make it my 3rd top rated overall, Solar Park is 2nd best on both 2020 times and overall figures so should go well but top rated on both recent and overall times is A GO GO 9/2 who won last time out and has been found a good chance to follow up here. 

A Go Go 6/1 2nd (-1pt) 

Total: -1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30

This is a strange looking race and I cannot analyse it to a definitive conclusion, Clever Candy Betty's Hope and Betsey Trotter have pieces of form that could see them make the frame if others falter, I am in a quandary about this race, on just 2020 times INEVITABLE OUTCOME 9/2 comes out 2nd top but 4th top overall and YOLO AGAIN 14/1 who is a possible pacesetter is top rated on this years times but only 3rd top overall and I have only 2lbs separating them, then I look at RESTLESS ROSE 5/1 who hasn't any recent c/d form but has a time from Chelmsford (the same surface) that makes it 2nd top overall just 2lbs below POET'S DANCE 17/2 and again this is using its best time from Chelmsford and I cannot see how I can do anything different than to dutch all 4 of them.

Poet's Dance 17/2 2nd (-1pt)

Inevitable Outcome 5/1 4th (-1pt)

Restless Rose 15/2 Unp (-1pt)

Yolo Again 40/1 Unp (-1pt)

Total: -4pts

Total on the day: -5pts