3:20 Southwell Racing Tips (26th January)

SOUTHWELL 3.20 

A class 5 sprint with 11 runners and 2, Walking On Clouds 9/2 and Bare Necessity 7/1 are both front running types but neither are in my top 3 ratings although the latter recorded its best in 2022 so could do best of the pair. Lynns Boy has never won over today's distance while Idoapologise hasn't run here before and both need to improve time wise to win this race so may be worth laying. Dark Shot is my 3rd top rated while Callin's Lad sits in 2nd top spot and they both like to track the leaders and the former may be better over a longer distance, my money will be riding on STARSONG 12/1 who is my top rated and has recorded ratings within 1lb at both here and Newcastle so likes this Tapeta surface, it should be staying on the stronger nearing the finish. 

Starsong 14/1 5th -1pt  

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 3.50 

A class 6 stakes dash where all bar the top one Ustath carry the same weight and this one who won last time out over 6 furlongs comes out in 2nd top spot on my ratings for this distance so should go well again here although its rating over 6 furlongs is higher than over this distance which it can find a bit too short for it and I expect it will be a hot favourite and that messes up the betting so I doubt there will be anything of value to lay. Sapphire's Moon sits in 4th top spot with Mr Funky Monkey sitting in 3rd top spot but I've got STROXX 7/2 as my top rated so this one will hopefully be with an each way punt and I do like the switch of jockey after showing a return to form when finishing 3rd last time out BUT this one hasn't won before with 34 failed attempts to its name and 13 of those races have been on an artificial surface.

Stroxx 5/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 6.00 

Only 8 runners for this stakes race and there's 2 known front running types amongst them, the betting will decide whether there's anything of value to lay with Dick Datchery and Elisheva being the ones most likely to fall into that category. Atrafan has been in good form winning once and being 2nd 3 times from its last 4 races but I expect it will be the fairly hot favourite and is my 4th top rated with Mutabaahy occupying the 3rd top spot and Stronsay in 2nd top spot and being one of the front runners it could go well but my money will be riding on the other likely pacesetter in the shape of ROCKLEY POINT 8/1 so I'm hoping this one can lead from start to finish. 

Rockley Point 8/1 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 6.30 Div I

Division 1 of a class 6 dash, I cannot see anything worthwhile to put forward to lay in this race, Rose Bandit likes to race in midfield and is my 4th top rated, Annie Rose might prefer a longer trip but still comes out 3rd top on my figures and will be trying to stay on at the business end of the race, BASHOLO 6/1 and BLACKCURRENT 6/1 both like to track the leaders, in this race that might be Mrs Baggeran, and with the apprentice jockeys allowances there is only 1lb between them with the former doing its best time in 2022 and the latter recorded its rating in 2021 and as its so close between them I will split my stake and back them both. 

Blackcurrent 6/1 5th -1pt 

Basholo 6/1 7th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.00 Div II

Another Angel is the only known front running type in this 2nd division and it could do better than its 5th top rated position if allowed an easy lead so could possibly make the frame. Once again i cannot see anything to confidently lay in this division, Elzaal is my 4th top rated and races in midfield or is held up for a late run, Spanish Angel who might prefer a longer distance so should be staying on at the finish is my 3rd top rated, Nellie French won last time out and comes out 2nd top position on my ratings so should run will in this race but my money will be riding on JOSHUA R 7/2 who also won last time out and has been found a good opportunity here to follow up with back to back wins.

Joshua R 5/1 9th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 7.30

Another 8 runner race but in a class 4 sprint, both Minesbiggerthanurs 5/1 and Brazen Bolt 10/1 seem to need further to show their best form so could be possible lays although the former is my joint 3rd top rated alongside Asadjumeirah, the bottom wieght Ballyare comes out in 2nd top spot on my figures but I will be relying on EMPEROR SPIRIT 3/1 who I will be expecting to lead all the way for victory in this race and the trainer has a good 26% win ratio at this course.

Emperor Spirit 9/2 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Brazen Bolt -9pts, Minesbiggerthanurs +1pt 

Total -9pts

Total on the day -15pts

12:10 Southwell Racing Tips (21st January)

SOUTHWELL 12.10 

Typical, there's 5 sprints for me to analyse today but my internet is down but luckily I can log onto my neighbour's but boy is it slow but better than nothing but taking me ages to do each individual race. My thread for each race will contain what I think is important while keeping it as brief as possible. Denzil's Laughing 6/1 will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late to win this race but being my 3rd top rated I'm not sure if it will be worth laying, Glen Rosa 6/1 has a fast time from Wolverhampton but that is beginning to look like a fluke time where it got towed along in a fast run race so could be one worth laying, using a time from Newcastle in 2020 Ghaallya 18/1 comes out in 2nd top spot but I will be backing and hoping that UBAHHA 11/2 can get to the front and if doing so could be hard to catch. 

Ubahha 6/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.25 

There's two known front runners, Airshow my 4th top rated and Aljari my 3rd top rated, in this seven runner race but I think they may be setting it up for something coming off the pace, Kratos 5/1 could be an improver but it only ran once last year and its speed figures from 2020 were relatively low so I would lay it if of value to do so, Endowed comes out second best on my figures but hasn't been in good form in its latest races, I will be backing INEVITABLE OUTCOME 5/2 who is my top rated on recent 2021/22 speed figures and its best rating from Lingfield makes it my top rated on overall figures. 

Inevitable Outcome 11/2 7th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 5.30 

I am not quite sure what will set the pace to this race but I'm hoping something does set a decent gallop, the top weight Sugar Baby 3/1 is dropped down and could go well in this race but is only 5th top on my figures although there is only 2lbs between 5th and 2nd top rated, joint 3rd top are Muatadel and Mansfield while Gorgeous General comes out in 2nd top spot using a time recorded here in 2020 while i will be backing STROXX 7/2 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and will be relying on a fast pace and others fading as its stamina kicks into play. 

Stroxx 5/1 8th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 6.30 

This is another of those low class stakes races where they are all carrying the same weight, there are a few runners that are way out of form but are biggish prices and no value to lay, Oakenshield has a good rating from 2020 but hasn't been anywhere near that level since then, Royal Heart 9/1, Sharrabang 16/1 and Wicklow Warrior 20/1 are my 5th to 3rd top rated with just 2lbs between the trio and you might fancy one to make the frame but which one I have no idea, Sleight 18/1 comes out in joint top spot but hasn't been in great form lately and its 78 days since the stable last had a winner so I will be leaving it alone and will be backing ATRAFAN 5/1 who won last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here. 

Atrafan 5/1 1st +5pts  + F/C £372,63

Total +5pts

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

Toussarak 5/1 has a high rating from a time recorded at Chelmsford but doesn't seem as good on this Tapeta surface and usually stays on at the finish but might be worth laying on this surface, Tommy Taylor 11/4 races as though further would suit it better and may be worth laying here at the price as its win last time out was in a slow run affair and may have flattered it, Idoapologise 6/1 also races as though a longer trip would suit it better and maybe worth taking on if of value, Global Warning 10/3 is 3rd top on my figures and its a front running type so it could prove hard to catch for most of these but I do have GOWANLAD 10/1 (EW) rated higher and if it reproduces its best c/d time from last year it would be winning with a few spots in hand but as usual at the price it has to be an each way wager.

Gowanlad 10/1 9th -2pt 

Lay bet Tommy Taylor -2.75pts

Total -4.75pts

Total on the day -2.75pts