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Wednesday, 5 January 2022

6:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips (6th January)

CHELMSFORD 6.30 

UPDATE: READ BELOW

BRAZEN ARROW 8/1 comes out fourth best on my speed figures but its 133 days since the stable last had a winner and the horse is still a maiden after twelve races but could possibly do enough to make the frame but I might lay the win part at a single figure price. 

BUT YOU SAID has run on this surface in Ireland but didn't show anything of merit so the same surface here might not suit it and is also a maiden after twelve previous races and another that I will look to lay if value to do so which 11/2 is. 

DELLA MAN hasn’t any form on this course and would need to improve time wise on what it has produced on this surface and distance at both Lingfield and Kempton and usually likes to track the leaders and I will look to lay this one at 4/1. 

INDIAN AFFAIR has been known to lead before and normally stall 13 would be a problem but with only 2 known front running types in this race it could be ok for it but time wise it would need to improve to lead all the way and I expect it will be a double figure price.

KNOCKABOUT QUEEN is usually held up for a late run but hasn't been in good form in its latest runs plus time wise it would need to improve to win this race and I doubt it can peg back the leaders in this race and I doubt it will be fancied in the betting. 

KRAZY PAVING has only slow times over this c/d in 2021 and its best from 2020 leaves it outside my top four ratings and I don't think this surface suits it the best but I think the price will reflect that notion. 

LADY MONICA has only had one previous course and distance run which resulted in a time not quick enough to register on my speed figures and it races as though a longer distance would suit it better and another I think will be an outsider. 

MONSIEUR FANTAISIE has a time from 2021 that makes it my third top rated horse and usually races in midfield and then stay on at the finish, it could make the frame but would need to improve to win this race but could do so, so I couldn't lay it. 

MOVEONUP has poor recent form and it would be a bit of a surprise if this one managed to win this race and I am not sure this surface will suit it either and will be an outsider.

NOZIERES has shown very little and another that would be a surprise winner and will be an outsider. 

RED ALLURE hasn't any form on this surface and would need to improve for the switch to the Polytrack surface to win this race and I expect it will be a double figure price. 

ROCKESBURY (EW) is a known front running type and has a rating from 2020 makes it my top rated so from stall 2 it could possibly get away smartly and get control of the rails and then be hard to peg back.

VINCENZO COCCOTTI (EW) has pieces of form that give it a decent chance in this race, it is my top rated on c/d times from 2021 or this year and comes out in second top spot using a 2020 speed figure. 

SUMMARY: I will look to lay, But You Said who doesn't look to like this surface looking at its Irish form and Della Mare who has poor ratings on this surface, as for the winner I will be having two bets firstly on ROCKESBURY 20/1 who has been known to lead and if getting to the front and gain control on the rails it could prove hard to catch but just in case things don't go to plan i will also be backing VINCENZO COCCOTTI 12/1 who is usually held up for a late run so I will have both angles covered and will go with two each way punts.

UPDATE: 

PS: there are now 2 non runners, Indian Affair and Rockesbuy who were the only front runinng types in this race, which now paints a completely different picture and now the favourite, Monsieur Fantaisie, has been given a better chance of winning this race but isn't of value at 9/4 so this race is now best left alone.

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