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Thursday, 10 February 2022

12:30 Southwell Racing Tips (11th February)

SOUTHWELL 12.30 

There's 3 known front running types in this 9 runner race and it just might be won from the front, I will look to lay Toptime 8/1 who looks a better prospect when racing over further as its poor speed figure at this course shows, another one to lay is Brandy Station who hasn't shown anything worthwhile time wise for quite a while now including when finishing 3rd over this c/d last time out, Miss Seafire 9/1 and Brazen Arrow 4/1 could go well but the former is still a maiden after 8 runs and the latter's best rating comes from back in 2020, COOL SPIRIT 5/2 is my top rated on recent c/d speed figures and could try to lead all the way in this race and could do so but its jockey stats are relatively poor at 7% win ratio so maybe not one to back on its own, BLUELLA 22/1 at the bottom of the handicap is well weighted on its best form both at this course on recent runs and its best from Wolverhampton in 2021 so I will be backing it each way at the price but I will have to back them both to cover the angles. 

Bluella 22/1 3rd +3.4pts 
Cool Spirit 7/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bets Toptime +1pt 

Total +4.4pts

SOUTHWELL 1.00 

Lets start with something to lay in this 12 runner low class stakes race where they all carry the same weight, Louis Treize 5/1 will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe a bit too late to win this race and isn't in my top 4 ratings but could make the frame if others falter and Captain Ryan 7/1 might not be able to lead and may then struggle so another for the lay list and finally Rhubarb 6/1 who usually stays on at the finish but again maybe too late to get up for the win, as for the winner I will be backing 2 horses, firstly BLACKCURRENT 5/2 who is a known front runner and could prove hard to catch for most of the field as it is my joint top rated on recent times at both Wolverhampton and Newcastle in 2021/22 and has good trainer/jockey stats it is also top rated on recent c/d times, I do have *LORNA COLE 11/2 with a higher rating from 2020 at Wolverhampton and has good trainer stats and usually stays on strongly at the finish over this distance so the 2 bets to cover the angles. 

Blackcurrent 5/2 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Louis Treize -3.5pts

Total -4.5pts

SOUTHWELL 4.25 

This is a poor poor race even for another low class stakes race, Dirchill could be the one to set the pace but has only poor form in its recent exertions and I think it will be an outsider, I'm not sure I could lay anything with any certainty as this race will not take much winning although I doubt Knockabout Queen 15/2 who is a hold up type can reach the front in time to win this race, INDEPENDENCE DAY 8/1 (EW) has a rating from Newcastle last year that would make it 8lb’s clear on my ratings and it did run ok last time out when finishing 3rd and has been found a good opportunity to get back to winning ways but my stakes wont be at full tilt because consistency isn't a keyword at this level and its trainer/jockey stats are nothing to write home about and stall 11 isn't ideal but if in the right mood could win this race cosily so I will be backing it and an each way price would be a bonus.

Independence Day 14/1 3rd +1.8pts 

Total +1.8pts

Total on the day +1.7pts

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