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Monday, 14 March 2022

7:00 Southwell Racing Tips (15th March)

SOUTHWELL 7.00 

A typical class 6 sprint over 5 furlongs with just 2 known front running types amongst the 12 runners, firstly I will look to lay Lesha 4/1 who seems a better prospect when racing on the Polytrack surface anything else that I could lay I expect will be double figure prices and represent no value to lay, as for the winner Equally Fast hasn't shown much time wise since 2020 but being a possible pacesetter it could do enough to make the frame although I doubt it can win this race so maybe worth looking to lay if a single figure price nearing the off, Raabeh would have a good chance if able to reproduce its best time from 2020 but last years best figure was way below that level and its time when winning over this c/d 2 runs ago was in a relatively slow run race and it might not pick up the leaders in this race, Scale Force comes from the Gay Kellaway stable and is my top rated using its time recorded at Wolverhampton this year and usually stays on strongly over this distance but it has a stablemate running, MOVEONUP who is the other front running type in the race and comes out top rated using my recent c/d speed figures which it recorded when winning from the front 2 runs ago and missed the kick last time out so that can be forgiven and if leading here it could prove hard to catch but I might have a smaller covering bet on its stablemate just in case that's the one that's trying out or the two of them. 

Moveonup 14/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bets Lesha +1pt

Total 0pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.45 

A 6 runner race, Badri might need this run for fitness after being off for over 530 days, Ben Macdul might find the distance too far with a fast early pace which looks likely here, Jungle Speed one of the 2 known front running types in this race might prefer the Polytrack surface and might be outclassed at this class 4 level and the same applies to Ginato who has been running well but is put up in class here without winning, I think that Ghathanfar 9/2 could be the one to do for the forecast as its usually stays on strongly at the finish but I doubt it will catch up with the one that I think will set the pace to this race and I can see SPARTAN FIGHTER 2/1 completing its hat trick. 

Spartan Fighter 11/4 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 8.30 

Quite a competitive class 5 race with 12 runners and 2 known front running types, I always mention front running types because without them you are not guaranteed a strong early gallop and then it becomes a 2 furlong dash and anything can happen, Igotatext 6/1 is one of the possible pacesetters but I don't think this surface sees it at its best and so much so I will look to lay it, I will also look to lay Sarah's Verse 9/1 and Capla Spirit 6/1 as they both look better over shorter distances, then the other way round I could look to lay Burj Malinka as it might prefer a longer distance to show its best that's if they are single figure prices, Steelriver 12/1 is always capable of running well but has disappointed on its last 3 runs but is top rated on just recent c/d times but that is from the very limited amount of data I had to work with, Tributo 12/1 could be the one to set the pace to the race and then it could do enough to make the frame, Vivency 20/1 and Water Of Leith 5/1 both have ratings that could see them be there at the business end of this race but my money will be riding on BURROW'S SEESIDE 5/1 who has made the frame in all four of its races this year and has a chance here to go even better and get back to winning ways.

Burrow's Seeside 5/1 1st +5pts

Lay bets Igotatext +1pt, Capla Spirit +1pt, Burj Malinka +1pt

Total 8pts 

Total on the day +7pts

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