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Wednesday, 2 March 2022

7:30 Southwell Racing Tips (3rd March)

SOUTHWELL 7.30 

HELVETIAN 25/1 usually races in midfield but its better speed figures have come on the Polytrack surface I doubt it will be of value to lay. 

BOBBY ON THE BEAT 10/1 this one will also need to improve time wise to win this race mainly due to it looking as though further would suit it better but again not perhaps of value to lay. 

DREAM GAME 11/1 has a slow time from its one run over this distance and maybe its a bit too far for it but maybe too risky to lay. 

IGOTATEXT 7/1 is one of two runners that has been known to lead before but its best form has come from the Polytrack surface and worth laying at the price. 

WATER OF LEITH 9/1 has a speed figure from 2020 at Wolverhampton that would see it make the frame but the jockeys 0-11 for the stable is a bit off-putting.

STONE CIRCLE 28/1 hasn't any form on this surface and its best from Chelmsford on the Polytrack surface needs improving upon to win this race but I expect a big outsider.

NUBOUGH 20/1 is another that has a Wolverhampton 2020 rating that would see it make the frame but its 60 days since the stable last had a winner and the trainer is 0-4 at this course.

STEELRIVER 28/1 has recorded a decent time over this course and distance this year but its best from Wolverhampton has been below whats required to win this race but knowing it does like this course it could go well. 

MARTINEO 18/1 (EW) is my top rated using 2021/22 course and distance speed figures and usually runs on strongly nearing the finish so worth an each way bet. 

THE COLA KID 8/1 hadn't any form over this distance on this surface until Monday when it won at Newcastle in either a slow run race or the surface was running very slow, and looks as though a longer distance might suit it better. 

INTERVENTION 1/1 or even money, I couldn't lay this one but it does need to improve time wise to win this race but it is the another that might set the pace to the race and it might have been slow going when it won at Wolverhampton.

SUMMARY: Maybe an each way bet on Steelriver might pay dividends because on a going day it could at least make the frame but it is also an inconsistent sort so I wouldn't want to rely on it, I will be laying Igotatext who looks better when racing on the Polytrack surface, both Water Of Leith and Nubough could run well here but my money will be riding on MARTINEO 18/1 (EW) who won on this surface at both Wolverhampton and Newcastle and either speed figure would be good enough and a reproduction of its 2019 Newcastle winning rating it would win a shade cosily so looks the value call in the race.

Martineo 50/1 8th -2pts 

Lay bets Igottext +1pt

Total on the day -1pt

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