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Thursday, 3 March 2022

2:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (4th March)

LINGFIELD 2.45 

There's 3 known front runners in this race, Swiss Pride 6/1 is one of them and is capable of recording a high speed figure but all in lower class races so maybe not up to winning this race, I'm not sure what to expect from Twilight Heir 12/1 and I'm doubtful that Impeach 5/1 can lead all the way for the win while Night On Earth 10/1 may struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace so I will be laying it if of value, as for the winner I will probably have a small covering bet on Jacks Point 9/2 who ran well last time when finishing 2nd and could possibly go one better here but my main bet will be riding on COUNT OTTO 13/2 who at first glance looks out of form but did record a good time the time before last over this course and distance and the jockey has a decent strike-rate for the trainer. 

Count Otto 14/1 7th -1pt

Lay bet Night On Earth +1pt 

Total 0pts

NEWCASTLE 6.15 

I hope all 8 runners take part and the pace will most likely be set by Khabib 11/2 who won last time out and holds Tathmeen 9/1 on that run but both of them might be outclassed at this level and time wise the winner would need to improve a few spots and might be worth laying if a shortish price but it is a 4yo who could be improving my lay stake will be kept low, Gowanlad 3/1 might be better racing over further and the jockey is 1-19 for the stable it might be another one to lay, as for the winner I'm hoping that GLORIOUS RIO 14/1 (EW) who is housed in stall 8 next to the probable pacesetter so could get a good tow into the race before staying on the stronger at the finish and the jockeys 29% win ratio on the stables older horses is hopefully a good pointer and at the odds it has to be an each way wager.

Glorious Rio 22/1 7th -2pts 

Total -2pts  

NEWCASTLE 7.15 

Not a race to get too excited about but the early pace could be set by Ustath but it hasn't been in good form lately, it would be a surprise if those in the bottom four in the handicap were to win this race, Million Reasons 5/2 has been in cracking form but it was either slow going or a slow run race when it won over c/d last time out and it should go well again here but I expect it will be fairly short in the market, I will take a bit of a punt in this race on DUE A WIN 13/2 who has been placed in 4 of its 8 AW races but is still a maiden after 11 races in total and can find this distance a bit too far if there's a fast early pace which might not happen here so it could have a chance to get off the market in this race. 

Due A Win 13/2 Unp -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 7.45 

Once again I hope all 8 runners take part in case I find an each way bet, I'm not sure this is the best surface for the front running Nigel Nott 8/1 and would lay it if of value to do so, Ghatnanfar 15/2 might need this run for fitness so another one to lay, I actually think the early pace will be set by SPARTAN FIGHTER 3/1 who I tipped up last time out when it won priced at a ten to one, the apprentice jockey does well riding for the stable and it could lead all the way again here but I cannot let SHALLOW HAL 11/2 run without having a bet on this one as well it usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish and the jockey has a 29% win ratio on the stables older horses and could be the one to prosper if the leader/s fade in the closing stages.

Spartan Fighter 5/1 1st +5pts 
Shallow Hal 11/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Nigel Nott +1pt, Ghatnanfar +1pt 

Total +6pts

Total on the day  +3pts

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