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Friday, 22 April 2022

3:20 Leicester Racing Tips (23rd April)

There are two sprints today at Ripon 4.00 and Haydock 1.30 where the going is given as good and good to soft in places which isn't what's needed for my ratings to work, IF, and it is a big if, the going does dry out then I might have a small each way punt on Macho Pride 10/1 in the Haydock race as it could possibly lead all the way as its the only known front running type in the race but there is a few lightly raced sorts who might turn out to be front runners in the future but I will be hoping it doesn't happen here if I am able to have a bet and Bedford Flyer could be the answer to the Ripon race as there is 4 known front running types in this race and that might set it up for something coming from off the pace, I will concentrate on the sprint where I am predicted to have good and good to firm in places ground at Leicester.



LEICESTER 3.20 

CITY WALK 11/2 has good jockey stats but its not the happiest hunting ground for the trainer who is 1-10 at the course, it hasn't won over this distance so I'm not 100% sure it will stay the distance if there's a decent early gallop . 

DAZZLING DAN has a decent time from back in 2020 and hasn't been in the same level of form since that year, it may need this run for fitness and a lay if a single figure price, the trainer has a decent win ratio at this course but the jockey is 0-8 for the stable. 

JACK'S POINT has 1 win from 26 runs on turf which doesn't bode well it may also be better when racing over a longer distance and the jockey has only a mediocre 8% win ratio for the stable and one I will look to lay. 

DANCINGINTHEWOODS its been 57 runners and 166 days since the stable last had a winner, the trainer is 1-14 at this course and would need to improve time wise to be winning this race so everything points to this one being worth taking on with a lay bet. 

AL SIMMO a possible pacesetter but its been 26 runners and 246 days since the stables last winner plus the trainer is 0-16 at this course and will need to improve on the clock to win here so maybe another to lay. 

CRAZY LUCK this horse might not want the ground to be really fast and that's reflected in its speed figures, the jockey has a poorish 6% win ratio for the stable and the stable is 0-16 for the last 2 weeks and 28 runners over the last 52 days since its last winner.

LETMELIVEMYLIFE this one hasn't been in the best of form in its last few runs and may be better racing over a longer distance so one to lay if a single figure price nearing the off.

SMEATON'S LIGHT this one seems to need good to firm going to show its best form and being a front runner it could prove dangerous if getting to the front, it does have good trainer/jockey stats and has to have some degree of a chance of winning this race. 

CASTANA DIA 14/1 this one will be trying to stay on strongly nearing the finish and its best rating recorded at Yarmouth last year would make it my top rated but all of its best form has come on flat courses and it might not be as good on this undulating surface but has won twice and placed four times in its 8 runs on turf so could go well and has good trainer/jockey stats. 

SUMMARY: I can see a few that could be possible lays in this race as time wise I've got three horses that are a good few spots above the rest of the field, City Walk and Castana Dia could go well but the former has poor trainer stats while the latter may prefer a flatter course, so my money will be riding on SMEATON'S LIGHT 14/1 (EW) who has won before when coming back from a break, it has good trainer/jockey stats with its older horses and if its the double figure price predicted on the tissue prices I will be going with an each way wager.

Smeaton's Light 14/1 2nd +1.8pts 

Lay bet Dazzling Dan +1pt, Jack's Point +1pt, Letmelivemylife +1pt 

Total on the day +4.8pts

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