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Monday, 9 May 2022

2:20 Chepstow Racing Tips (10th May)

CHEPSTOW 2.20 

I will start with those that I will be looking to lay, Mashaan 13/2 may be better over further and hasn't been in good form of late, Kool Moe Dee 13/2 has only slow times over this distance because with a decent early gallop it struggles to stay the distance and the same applies to Port Noir 10/1 any others will I expect to be double figure priced outsiders, if it wasn't for the fact that the trainer hasn't had a winner from 22 runners over 122 days I would be backing AMATHUS 20/1 as my sole bet but because it does have good trainer stats at this course of 18% and good jockey stats 22% win ratio, I will be backing it along with 2 others, SWEET PURSUIT 25/1 this ones trainer is 1-24 in the last 2 weeks but does have a 18% win ratio at this course and the jockey is 2-9 and 1-2 on the stables older horses, MAC'S DILEMMA 3/1 is my top rated using just 2022 speed figures so has to be considered as the possible winner and it also has good trainer 17% and jockey 38% stats, I cannot see any other way forward other than backing all 3 of them so hopefully again looking at the early tissue prices I will go with 2 each way bets and one win bet. 

Mac's Dilemma 3/1 1st +3pts 
Amathus 14/1 5th -2pt 
Sweet Pursuit 40/1 Unp -2pts 

Lay bets Mashaan +1pt, Kool Moe Dee +1pt, 

Total +1pt 

BEVERLEY 3.10 

There isn't a great deal of data to work with for a fair few in this race which is a bit off-putting, I can see a couple of possible pacesetters in Jean's Maite and Refuge but I doubt either could lead all the way for the victory but the pace not be the fastest of gallops which wont help me analyse the race properly, after narrowing down as best I could I came up with Son And Sannie 13/8 but according to the early tissue prices it looks likely to be the favourite and I doubt it will of value to back in my opinion so it might be best to leave this race alone. 

LINGFIELD 6.15 

I can only see Harbour Storm 13/2 leading this race, unless something else changes its usual running tactics, but I doubt it will be able to lead all the way as it seems to be better on the Tapeta surface and would need others to falter to even make the frame so one to lay if a single figure price, using the early tissue prices as a guide I will be hoping to lay Perfect Symphony 8/1 who might find the distance too far for it and San Juan 7/1 may also struggle to stay the distance, Maahle Vee, Independence Day and Bungledupinblue are my joint 3rd and 2nd top rated horses but I will be backing GRIGGY 5/1 who is usually held up for a late run and is drawn in the adjacent stall to the one I think will lead so could get a good tow into the race and after being ridden by apprentice jockeys recently the jockey booked for this race has a 3 wins from 7 races for the stable and 3 from 6 with the stables older horses so it looks that connections are expecting it to get back to winning ways. 

Griggy 5/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bets Harbour Storm +1pt

Total 0pts 

Total on the day +1pt

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