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Showing posts with label Sweet Pursuit. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sweet Pursuit. Show all posts

Monday, 9 May 2022

2:20 Chepstow Racing Tips (10th May)

CHEPSTOW 2.20 

I will start with those that I will be looking to lay, Mashaan 13/2 may be better over further and hasn't been in good form of late, Kool Moe Dee 13/2 has only slow times over this distance because with a decent early gallop it struggles to stay the distance and the same applies to Port Noir 10/1 any others will I expect to be double figure priced outsiders, if it wasn't for the fact that the trainer hasn't had a winner from 22 runners over 122 days I would be backing AMATHUS 20/1 as my sole bet but because it does have good trainer stats at this course of 18% and good jockey stats 22% win ratio, I will be backing it along with 2 others, SWEET PURSUIT 25/1 this ones trainer is 1-24 in the last 2 weeks but does have a 18% win ratio at this course and the jockey is 2-9 and 1-2 on the stables older horses, MAC'S DILEMMA 3/1 is my top rated using just 2022 speed figures so has to be considered as the possible winner and it also has good trainer 17% and jockey 38% stats, I cannot see any other way forward other than backing all 3 of them so hopefully again looking at the early tissue prices I will go with 2 each way bets and one win bet. 

Mac's Dilemma 3/1 1st +3pts 
Amathus 14/1 5th -2pt 
Sweet Pursuit 40/1 Unp -2pts 

Lay bets Mashaan +1pt, Kool Moe Dee +1pt, 

Total +1pt 

BEVERLEY 3.10 

There isn't a great deal of data to work with for a fair few in this race which is a bit off-putting, I can see a couple of possible pacesetters in Jean's Maite and Refuge but I doubt either could lead all the way for the victory but the pace not be the fastest of gallops which wont help me analyse the race properly, after narrowing down as best I could I came up with Son And Sannie 13/8 but according to the early tissue prices it looks likely to be the favourite and I doubt it will of value to back in my opinion so it might be best to leave this race alone. 

LINGFIELD 6.15 

I can only see Harbour Storm 13/2 leading this race, unless something else changes its usual running tactics, but I doubt it will be able to lead all the way as it seems to be better on the Tapeta surface and would need others to falter to even make the frame so one to lay if a single figure price, using the early tissue prices as a guide I will be hoping to lay Perfect Symphony 8/1 who might find the distance too far for it and San Juan 7/1 may also struggle to stay the distance, Maahle Vee, Independence Day and Bungledupinblue are my joint 3rd and 2nd top rated horses but I will be backing GRIGGY 5/1 who is usually held up for a late run and is drawn in the adjacent stall to the one I think will lead so could get a good tow into the race and after being ridden by apprentice jockeys recently the jockey booked for this race has a 3 wins from 7 races for the stable and 3 from 6 with the stables older horses so it looks that connections are expecting it to get back to winning ways. 

Griggy 5/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bets Harbour Storm +1pt

Total 0pts 

Total on the day +1pt

Saturday, 17 August 2019

2:45 Newmarket Racing Tips (17th August)


NEWMARKET 2.45 (7.0)

There are quite a few relatively unexposed types in the race so any stakes would be kept low, Lethal Angel recorded a time at Yarmouth last year that would make it my top-rated but its time at Newmarket this year was way below that level so I'm not sure this type of track suits it, the one that I will be backing with a small each-way punt is LUCKY BEGGAR 25/1 who prefers the fast ground and likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish. I know I have said this on numerous occasions but please try to check if the going is equal or higher to the figure in brackets after the time of the race before betting, all my figures are done using good or faster going and mean absolutely nothing on the softened ground. 

Lucky Beggar 25/1 Unp 

DONCASTER 3.25 (8.1)

I will concentrate on my top 4 ratings, Acclaim The Nation my 4th top-rated is one of six known front running sorts in this race and drawn in stall 11, Laith Alareen from stall 10 is another possible pacesetter and my 3rd top-rated, The Daley Express is my 2nd top-rated and could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast and fade nearing the finish but my money will be on DAPPER MAN 12/1 who I'm hoping can lead all the way from stall 13 and an each-way wager looks the way to go. 

Dapper Man 16/1 6th 

BATH 7.50 (7.7) 

A tricky little race especially over this distance of 5 furlongs and 160 yards and the problem is do i need a strong finishing 5 furlong horse or a weak finishing 6 furlongs, if the going is good to firm then PRINCELY 11/2 could possibly lead all the way here being my 2nd top-rated using a time from Carlisle last year so will be carrying some of my money, the 3 at the top of the handicap could all be competitive Big Lachie wanting fast ground while Delegate This Lord doesn't want really fast going, the other one I will be backing is SWEET PURSUIT 11/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and should be staying on at the finish.

Sweet Pursuit 11/1 1st 
Princely 7/1 3rd