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Thursday 15 December 2022

1:25 Southwell Racing Tips (16th December)


A field of 12 with 3 possible pacesetters, Blackjack 9/2 who might prefer a different surface and Slate Cracker who needs to improve time wise could be lays if of value to do so, I think that Walking On Clouds 5/1 might need further but hasn't any distance form on the AW tracks but hasn't much English form to its name so I'm not sure if I could lay it. My Boy Jack 11/2, You're Cool 10/1 and Ustath 10/1 could go well but I will be backing TAHONTA 15/2 who is my top rated on just course and distance ratings and likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly nearing the finish and also *PORTELET BAY 20/1 who is a possible pacesetter in stall 11 isn't ideal but in the make-up of this race could get to the front and doing do could be hard to catch so I will be having the 2 bets to cover the angles of running styles and where their best Tapeta rating was recorded. 


Tahonta 15/2 5th -1pts 

Lay bet: Walking On Clouds -2.75pts

Total -3.75pts


A field of 10 for this class 4 race with just Bang On The Bell and Murbih being known to have led before and the former could go very well if allowed an easy lead but has poor trainer stats which is off-putting. Twilight Madness 9/2 might be worth laying as I think it will be better over further, Pockley has been in good form lately but hasn't run at this course before but has a decent rating on the straight course at Newcastle so this course could suit it, my money will be riding on my top rated horse over this course and distance in the shape of SO GRATEFUL 7/1 and this one has good trainer and jockey stats but I could have small covering bets on the other two dangers. 

So Grateful 7/1 4th -1pt

Lay bet: Twilight Madness -1.875pts

Total -2.875pts


Another field of 10 for this class 2 sprint and once again 2 known front running types, Moss Gill 11/2 might find this distance too far with a fast early gallop and will be worth laying if a single figure price, the 2 at the bottom of the handicap, Total Commitment and Tyger Bay have been in good form lately and can produce good ratings but they do their best in lower class races but I'm not 100% sure that I could lay them while the top weight Hazlym may be better when raced over a longer distance. The 2 known front running types are MAY SONIC 7/1 and ARAMIS GREY 3/1, the former has the better draw but its best ratings have come at Chelmsford and the jockey is 0-7 for the stable but that's not enough to put me off its chances while the latter is in stall 9 but has good trainer and jockey stats, I'm not sure which one will gain the upperhand so I will have to back them both.

Abandoned due to weather 

Total on the day -6.625pts

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