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Wednesday 14 December 2022

2:33 Southwell Racing Tips (15th December)


A class 6 race with 13 runners of which 4 are what I would class as natural front running sorts who either like to lead or contest the lead from the off. The Tron 5/1, Dapper Man 9/1 and Lucky Beggar 14/1 are all better prospects when racing over further and would be lays if of value to do so. The 4 at the bottom of the handicap haven't been in form lately but I expect they will be double figure prices but if not then I would lay them as well. Thrilla In Manila or Captain Carcoran could be the ones to set the early pace while Amasova and Another Angel will try to get somewhere near the front. My money will be riding on BRANDY STATION 10/1 who I tipped up when it won 2 runs ago at 25/1, its last run on soft ground on turf is best ignored and has been found a decent opportunity to follow up that course and distance win and both the trainer and jockey have good stats here since they changed the surface 12 months ago. 

Brandy Station 12/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets: The Tron +1pt

Total 0pts 


A class 4 race and only 6 horses run, I backed the front running Total Commitment when it finished 2nd last time out at Lingfield but time wise it needs to improve on this surface so I doubt it can hold on for the win but it could run a good race if allowed an easy lead, Blind Beggar hasn't any form in England so not sure what to expect as its 1 run on the Polytrack surface in Ireland didn't show much but didn't seem to stay the distance and its best form has been on soft going on turf, Motagally hasn't been in poor form lately but will be the outsider in the field, Bellagio Man and Aberama Gold are my joint top rated using times from Newcastle or Wolverhampton but the former is 2nd top rated on just course and distance ratings but EMBOUR 13/2 is my top rated on both sets of figures and will be carrying my money. 

Embour 11/1 5th -1pt

Total -1pt


This is a strange race where my final analysis isn't watertight, I can see only one known front running type, I'm not sure I could lay anything in this race with any confidence so I won't be going down that road as this race wont take much winning. Dark Shot comes out in 2nd top spot using Tapeta ratings from elsewhere and on course and distance ratings so ought to run well and could be an each way punt, my top rated using just course and distance times is COAXING 10/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on nearing the finish and might even prefer a longer distance but has poor trainer, 0-11, stats and poor jockey, 0-6, stats which is off putting plus its been 69 days since the stable last had a winner, POLITICS 7/4 is the one that could set the pace to the race and is my top rated using Tapeta ratings from elsewhere, Wolverhampton or Newcastle but its had 3 runs over this course and distance and time-wise is well below my rating for Coaxing and its still a maiden after 8 races on artificial surfaces, so it looks like either 2 small bets or leave the race alone. If the early tissue are to be believed then Politics will be the fairly hot favourite and would represent poor value in such an open race which would make Coaxing the value call for the race as usual the betting will decide which road I take.

Politics 7/4 1st +1.75pts
Coaxing 14/1 5th -1pt 

Total +0.75pts

Total on the day -0.25pts 

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