1:25 Southwell Racing Tips (16th December)

SOUTHWELL 1.25 

A field of 12 with 3 possible pacesetters, Blackjack 9/2 who might prefer a different surface and Slate Cracker who needs to improve time wise could be lays if of value to do so, I think that Walking On Clouds 5/1 might need further but hasn't any distance form on the AW tracks but hasn't much English form to its name so I'm not sure if I could lay it. My Boy Jack 11/2, You're Cool 10/1 and Ustath 10/1 could go well but I will be backing TAHONTA 15/2 who is my top rated on just course and distance ratings and likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly nearing the finish and also *PORTELET BAY 20/1 who is a possible pacesetter in stall 11 isn't ideal but in the make-up of this race could get to the front and doing do could be hard to catch so I will be having the 2 bets to cover the angles of running styles and where their best Tapeta rating was recorded. 

*NR 

Tahonta 15/2 5th -1pts 

Lay bet: Walking On Clouds -2.75pts

Total -3.75pts

SOUTHWELL 2.35 

A field of 10 for this class 4 race with just Bang On The Bell and Murbih being known to have led before and the former could go very well if allowed an easy lead but has poor trainer stats which is off-putting. Twilight Madness 9/2 might be worth laying as I think it will be better over further, Pockley has been in good form lately but hasn't run at this course before but has a decent rating on the straight course at Newcastle so this course could suit it, my money will be riding on my top rated horse over this course and distance in the shape of SO GRATEFUL 7/1 and this one has good trainer and jockey stats but I could have small covering bets on the other two dangers. 

So Grateful 7/1 4th -1pt

Lay bet: Twilight Madness -1.875pts

Total -2.875pts

KEMPTON 7.45 

Another field of 10 for this class 2 sprint and once again 2 known front running types, Moss Gill 11/2 might find this distance too far with a fast early gallop and will be worth laying if a single figure price, the 2 at the bottom of the handicap, Total Commitment and Tyger Bay have been in good form lately and can produce good ratings but they do their best in lower class races but I'm not 100% sure that I could lay them while the top weight Hazlym may be better when raced over a longer distance. The 2 known front running types are MAY SONIC 7/1 and ARAMIS GREY 3/1, the former has the better draw but its best ratings have come at Chelmsford and the jockey is 0-7 for the stable but that's not enough to put me off its chances while the latter is in stall 9 but has good trainer and jockey stats, I'm not sure which one will gain the upperhand so I will have to back them both.

Abandoned due to weather 

Total on the day -6.625pts

6:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips (17th November)

CHELMSFORD 6.30 

Only 5 runners for this class 2 sprint, See You Boy is making its English debut having previously run in France where it has won on the Polytrack surface so could be a big danger in this race, Ventura Tormenta hasn't run on the AW before but its best on turf isn’t good enough to win this race. Shallow Hal my 3rd top rated and Soldiers Minute in 2nd top spot both like to track the leaders but I am hoping that MAY SONIC 3/1 will set the pace to this race and then could prove hard to catch. 

May Sonic 3/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

CHELMSFORD 7.00 

A full house of 14 for this class 5 sprint with 2 or 3 that have been known to lead before, the 3yo Shades Of Summer 6/1 won last time out and could improve for that experience but that race was a poor event run in a slow time so it might have been flattered by the result and might be worth opposing but I cannot see anything else to lay as I think they will be double figure prices. Using a Wolverhampton rating Rattling 6/1 comes out in joint 3rd top spot and being a front running type could go well the other joint 3rd top rated is El Hombre 8/1 but this one time wise hasn't been in as good form as last year although it has been running well. Yimou 12/1 comes out 2nd best but once again its using a 2021 speed figure so I will be siding with ARAIFJAN 8/1 who is a versatile type when it comes to racing tactics and that includes leading and with the make-up of this race it could deploy any tactic and if getting to the front ought to prove too hard to catch. 

Araifjan 8/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet Shades Of Summer -5.5pts

Total -6.5pts

CHELMSFORD 7.30 

A 5 furlong class 5 dash with 12 runners and 5 of them have led before, I think the 3yo *Bethersden Boy 6/1 will need further to show its true worth and might be worth laying to a small stake in this race. I've got four horses rated very close to each other just outside my top 2, Dark Side Prince 9/1, Expert Opinion 8/1, Street Parade 10/1 and Mashaan 14/1, but the latter might have been flattered by its best rating and is beginning to look like a fluke time where it got towed along in a fast run race. My 2nd top rated is Angle Land 11/2 and being a front running type it could prove very dangerous if allowed an easy lead but I doubt that will happen here and they might battle too hard for the lead and play into the hooves of MICK'S SPIRIT 8/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger nearing the finish, its trainer has a 24% win ratio with their older horses at this course and the apprentice jockey has an 18% win ratio when riding for the stable which points to connections expecting it to run very well here. 

*NR

Mick's Spirit 8/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -8.5pts

7:00 Chelmsford Racing Tips (15th September)

CHELMSFORD 7.00 

A field of 9 for this class 2 sprint where a third of them have been known to lead before, its such a competitive race I'm not sure I can find anything to lay, there is only 3lbs between my 7th top rated and the horse sitting in 3rd top spot, my 2nd top rated horse Tolstoy is only 2lbs higher but my top rated is the top weight MAY SONIC 11/1 (EW) who if able to reproduce its best rating from 2021 would win this race with a bit to spare, it also has good trainer/jockey stats which make me think connections are expecting it to get back to winning ways here but the price says it has to be an each way bet. 

May Sonic 25/1 7th -2pts

Total -2pt

NEWCASTLE 8.15 

Fourteen runners in this class 3 sprint with a couple of known front running types to ensure there's a good fast early gallop, the 3yo Lir Speciale hasn't any form on this surface but on Polytrack it only produced slow times so would need to improve for the switch to this Tapeta surface to win this race and would also need to improve on its best rating from the turf so maybe worth laying but as it has good trainer/jockey stats so it will only be a small lay, Water Of Leith can produce good ratings but not at this level and would be another lay if a single figure price, I will be backing both of the known front runners in this race, WATCHYA 16/1 (EW) has been in good form winning 3 of its last 5 races and is my top rated using just 2022 ratings so has to be backed but MUSCIKA 33/1 (EW) has an even better rating from 2021 at Wolverhampton and this horse is capable of springing back to form without prior warning and I expect it will be an each way price, in fact at the prices i will be backing them both each way. 

Watchya 16/1 4th -2pt 

Muscika 40/1 8th -2pt 

Lay bets: Lir Speciale +1pt

Total -3pts  

NEWCASTLE 8.45 

A nice looking class 3 dash with 14 runners and 3 known front running types amongst them, I will be looking to lay Many A Star who has never won over this distance as a longer trip suits it much better and hasn't ever won on an artificial surface from 4 attempts, Marnie James, Be Proud and Show Me Show Me could be battling to make the frame but I will be backing 2 horses to cover the angles, SWAYZE 18/1 (EW) is one of the possible pacesetters in this race but hasn't run on an AW course but its best rating from the turf would see it winning this race a shade cosily but that's only if it takes to the surface so i will also be backing NAVELLO 14/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders and is my top rated using a rating it recorded here last year and has good trainer/jockey stats which I'm hoping points to connections expecting it to run a big race here and once again I will be backing them both each way.

Swayze 18/1 2nd +3.5pts 

Navello 14/1 8th -2pts 

Lay bet: Many A Star +1pt

Total +2.5pts

Total -2.5pts

6:00 Chelmsford Racing Tips (16th September)

CHELMSFORD 6.00 

Its a class 6 race and its very confusing without the fact there's no known front running types in the race, looking at the early tissue prices the 1st 3 in the betting are 2 of the horses i think have a good chance of winning its only the top weight La Roca Del Fuego 6/1 who I think might be a shorter price than its actual chance of winning but nothing is written in concrete in the basement level of horse racing, I would have looked to lay both Aces and Big Impact if there was some definite early paced sorts in the race as they can struggle to stay the trip with a fast early gallop although the former does have a decent time from Lingfield but has 2 slow times over this course and distance, Irish Times and The Tron have the best speed figures from just 2021 but neither have very good trainer and/or jokey stats and the jockey on the latter is 0-19 riding for today's stable, I will split my stake in this race with a win bet on PERFECT SYMPHONY 6/1 who I think will be to the fore of the betting and hopefully an each way wager on *MAID MILLIE 6/1 (EW) who hasn't shown much in its 4 runs this year but last time out did point to it coming to form and it has won twice before after being out of the frame on its previous run but I have to admit my stakes will be kept on the low side. 

*NR

Perfect Symphony 14/1 9th -1pt 

Total -1pt

CHELMSFORD 6.30 

What should be a nice class 2 race is spoiled by a poor turnout of just 6 runners where 2 of them are known as front running types and they happen to be my 2 top rated horses, I think the 3yo Inveigle 11/2 may be better when tried over a longer trip but this race could just be run to suit it, Soul Seeker 9/1 is making its debut on the AW tracks and would need to improve on its best speed figure from the turf, I've got Top Breeze 10/1 as my 2nd top rated but only 1lb below MAY SONIC 7/2 while the official speed figures make it the other way round by 2lbs and with them being so close it might be best to back the other one as a covering bet.

May Sonic 7/2 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts