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Sunday 1 January 2023

4:56 Southwell Racing Tips (1st January)


Only 8 runners for this class 2 dash with 3 of the runners having been known to lead before but I think/hope that they set the race up for something coming from off the pace, King Of Bovaria 6/1 has won over this distance but looks a better prospect when racing over further and can be slow away at times which is handicap which ought to prevent it from catching the leaders so I will look to lay this runner. The 3 likely pacesetters, Fine Wine, Bedford Flyer and The Bell Conductor all have decent ratings, Fine Wine is top rated using just Newcastle's ratings but drops to 3rd top spot on course and distance ratings, Bedford Flyer is my 2nd top rated on course and distance times and 2nd top on Wolverhampton ratings while The Bell Conductor hasn't done a great rating at this course and distance but comes out in joint 2nd position using Newcastle’s ratings, so the trio look fast and capable but if they go off too fast and fade then ALLIGATOR ALLEY 4/1 may take advantage it is the other joint 2nd top on Newcastle ratings but this one is in top spot on course and distance ratings, it has won its last 2 races and has been found a good opportunity to complete the hattrick in this race and also has good trainer and jockey stats. 

Alligator Alley 4/1 1st +4pts

Lay bet King Of Bovaria +1pt

Total +5pts


Another 8 runner dash with 3 known front running types but this time its a class 5 race, Sir Gregory may need further to show its best so should be staying on at the finish in this race but its not one I could confidently put forward as a lay bet as its my 2nd top rated on course and distance times but if a short price then I might take that risk. If Modular Magic is a single figure price then it would be of value to lay as it hasn't been in good form in its latest races and needs to improve time wise on what its shown so far over today's course and distance. I will be hoping that THRILLA IN MANILA 10/1 (EW) can either lead or at least contest the lead and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch as it is my top rated on course and distance ratings and 2nd top rated on Newcastle’s ratings and as long as all 8 runners take part in the race then I would go with an each way bet, top rated on Newcastle times is Beneficiary 7/2 but this one is only 3rd best on course and distance ratings so I will have to back both horses but my stakes will be tilted in favour on the former as its rating are more relevant to this race.

Thrilla In Manila 16/1 7th -2pts

Lay bet Modular Magic +1pt

Total -1pt

Total on the day +4pts

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