4:56 Southwell Racing Tips (1st January)

SOUTHWELL 4.56 

Only 8 runners for this class 2 dash with 3 of the runners having been known to lead before but I think/hope that they set the race up for something coming from off the pace, King Of Bovaria 6/1 has won over this distance but looks a better prospect when racing over further and can be slow away at times which is handicap which ought to prevent it from catching the leaders so I will look to lay this runner. The 3 likely pacesetters, Fine Wine, Bedford Flyer and The Bell Conductor all have decent ratings, Fine Wine is top rated using just Newcastle's ratings but drops to 3rd top spot on course and distance ratings, Bedford Flyer is my 2nd top rated on course and distance times and 2nd top on Wolverhampton ratings while The Bell Conductor hasn't done a great rating at this course and distance but comes out in joint 2nd position using Newcastle’s ratings, so the trio look fast and capable but if they go off too fast and fade then ALLIGATOR ALLEY 4/1 may take advantage it is the other joint 2nd top on Newcastle ratings but this one is in top spot on course and distance ratings, it has won its last 2 races and has been found a good opportunity to complete the hattrick in this race and also has good trainer and jockey stats. 

Alligator Alley 4/1 1st +4pts

Lay bet King Of Bovaria +1pt

Total +5pts

SOUTHWELL 5.26 

Another 8 runner dash with 3 known front running types but this time its a class 5 race, Sir Gregory may need further to show its best so should be staying on at the finish in this race but its not one I could confidently put forward as a lay bet as its my 2nd top rated on course and distance times but if a short price then I might take that risk. If Modular Magic is a single figure price then it would be of value to lay as it hasn't been in good form in its latest races and needs to improve time wise on what its shown so far over today's course and distance. I will be hoping that THRILLA IN MANILA 10/1 (EW) can either lead or at least contest the lead and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch as it is my top rated on course and distance ratings and 2nd top rated on Newcastle’s ratings and as long as all 8 runners take part in the race then I would go with an each way bet, top rated on Newcastle times is Beneficiary 7/2 but this one is only 3rd best on course and distance ratings so I will have to back both horses but my stakes will be tilted in favour on the former as its rating are more relevant to this race.

Thrilla In Manila 16/1 7th -2pts

Lay bet Modular Magic +1pt

Total -1pt

Total on the day +4pts

6:20 Southwell Racing Tips (6th December)

SOUTHWELL 6.20 Div I

An 11 runner class 6 sprint with just 2 front running types Sir Rodneyredblood is one of them but sits just outside my top 4 ratings so I doubt it can hold on for the win but never say never, Carlton and Co 5/1 is still a maiden after 8 runs but has made the frame 3 times but would need to improve on its best course and distance rating to win this race. Dark Shot my 4th top rated won the time before its last run which was a poor effort and likes to track the leaders, Show Me A Sunset who usually races in midfield before staying on at the finish is my 3rd top rated with Sir Gregory sitting in 2nd top spot, RATTLING 5/2 has never run at this course but has won 3 times on this surface at Wolverhampton and its the other possible pacesetter and from stall 2 it should be able to gain control of the rails and once hitting the front it ought to prove too hard to catch. 

Rattling 6/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 6.50 Div II

This division by far looks the better race on paper but with only Pepsi Cat having been known to lead it might not be the fastest of races, Brazen Idol 3/1 has been in good form lately but its win at Wolverhampton was a slow time and it might be a better prospect on the Polytrack surface so might be worth risking a lay on it, especially if it is to the fore in the betting. Kath's Toyboy likes to track the leaders and is my 3rd top rated, Starsong is my 2nd top rated on times from either Wolverhampton or Newcastle and also on just course and distance ratings and that also applies to my top rated horse as it comes out in top spot on both sets of figures,CAPTAIN VALLO 4/1 who won nicely when I backed it last time out and has been found the ideal opportunity to follow up here. 

Captain Vallo 4/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bet brazen Idol +1pt 

Total 0pts

SOUTHWELL 7.20 

What should be a nice class 3 dash only spoilt by having half of the 10 runner field being 3yo’s who could still improve with experience, there are 3 known front running types in the race which always helps with analysing the race. Of the 3 front running types, Papa Dont Preach, Mustaffiz and Khabib the latter could be the one to do best of them as its my 4th top rated, if Dusky Prince 10/1 is a single figure price near the off its one that I would look to lay as it might be outclassed at this level, I think that Silky Wilkie 4/1 is a better horse over a longer distance and is only 3rd top rated on course and distance times and has only a slow time recorded on this Tapeta surface at Newcastle so might be worth the risk to lay it if the early tissue prices are to be believed. Stone Of Destiny is my 3rd top rated with So Smart sitting in 2nd top spot although this ones figures were recorded in lower class races and hasnt won from 5 previous runs on an artificial surface. My money will be riding on ALLIGATOR ALLEY 11/4 who has had 5 runs on an artificial surface (AW) and has been placed in 3 of them and this looks an ideal opportunity for it to register its 1st AW win, since the new surface was laid here the trainer has had a 19% win ration and the jockey an 18% win ratio and has been running in higher class races lately so this drop in class might be the catalyst to it getting rid of its AW maiden tag.

Alligator Alley 11/4 1st +2.75pts

Total +2.75pts 

Total on the day +1.75pts