A class four eleven runner sprint with 3 known front running types amongst them, both Intervention 6/1 and Shalaa Asker 11/2 who won last time out, have never won at class 4 level and are not in my top 4 ratings so maybe worth taking on but only if of value to do so, Watermelon Sugar 25/1 is my 4th top rated and can be held up or track the leaders and if able to reproduce its best Tapeta rating from last year could be worth a small each way punt, Churchill Bay 33/1 recorded one fast time at Wolverhampton last year but that is now looking like a fluke time when it got towed along in a fast run race, Melly Flyer 16/1 along with Intervention will ensure there's a fast early gallop but if WALKING ON CLOUDS 11/4, who has finished first or second in its last 5 starts gets to the front it could lead all the way plus it has good trainer, at this course, and jockey, for this stable, stats and could add another winning run to its name.
Walking On Clouds 3/1 3rd -1pt
Lay bets Intervention +1pt, Shalaa Asker +1pt
Total +1pt
SOUTHWELL 4.10
A 9 runner class 4 dash where a third of the field have been known to lead before but it looks most likely that they will be setting it up for something finishing well from off the pace as Lihou 13/2, Murbih 11/2 nor Bert Kibbler 7/2 are in my top 4 ratings. Micks Spirit 11/2 might be better off racing on the Polytrack surface while Dalby Forest 5/1 might prefer a longer distance so both might be worth laying if of value to do so. Pop Dancer who is usually held up in midfield or at the back of the pack is my 4th top rated just 2lb’s below Glorious Rio in 3rd top spot so either could make the frame. MISS BELLADONNA 8/1 (EW) is my top rated and seems to be an improving 4 year old so could take the rise in class in its stride but the jockeys record of 0-25 for the stable makes me wary else otherwise it might have been my sole bet in this race but STONE OF DESTINY 9/1 (EW) who admittedly hasn't shown much recently is dropped in class to run in this race and the trainer and jockey stats have been good at this course since the change of surface so might have slipped under the radar and will be better value that it ought to be and if a double figure price it will be an each way wager.
Stone Of Destiny 14/1 4th -2pts
Miss Belladonna 8/1 6th -2pts
Lay bet Dalby Forest +1pt
Total -3pts
SOUTHWELL 4.45
One of those 0-50 stakes races where they all carry the same weight, there are only 2 runners rated 50 those being The Tron 13/2 and Ubahha 9/1 but I think they are both better suited to a longer distance but they are my 4th and 3rd top rated but I think they might finish a bit too late to catch the leader in this race but could be worth each way bets. Rockley Point 6/1 is one of the two front running types but sits outside my top 4 ratings so may not stay there long enough to win or even make the frame unless allowed an easy lead where it keeps some stamina in reserve for a finishing kick but is shorter in price that I was expecting. Stroxx 9/2 is my 2nd top rated but this horse is becoming frustrating as it has had 37 races, 16 on an All-Weather track, where it has made the frame in 11 of those races but is still a maiden but has been knocking on the door to the winners enclosure recently and I am sure it will break its duck one day but i will be pinning my hopes in this race on MOVEONUP 14/1 (EW) who is the other known front running type in this race so I'm hoping that in this race it can lead all the way for another victory but as always at a double figure price has to be done as an each way wager.
Moveonup 22/1 Unp -2pts
Total -2pts
NEWCASTLE 8.00
A field of 8 for this dash but there isn't any known front running types in this race which always makes things a lot more difficult to analyse. Kraken Power 13/8 seems better over further and on the Polytrack surface so maybe one to lay especially at such a short price, Kath's Toyboy may also be better over a longer distance so maybe another one to lay but as its my joint 3rd top rated maybe not, Aikido is my other 3rd top rated horse and they are are both just rated 1lb lower than Phoenix Star who sits in 2nd top spot. My top rated is NELLIE FRENCH 16/1 (EW) who can be held up or track the leaders before staying on strongly at the finish and a repeat of its best rating from earlier this month would see it winning this race a shade cosily and at such a generous price it has to be done as a small each way wager.
Nellie French 16/1 1st +19.2pts
Lay Kraken Power +1pt
Total 20.2pts
Total on the day +16.2pts
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