3:10 Southwell Racing Tips (28th August)

SOUTHWELL 3.10 

5F Class-6 14-Runners

I can see 3 horses that might set the pace to this race and on this straight course the draw isn't too significant, 2 of the possible pacesetters are 3yo’s and would need to improve time wise to win this race but they are of an age when improvement can come without warning so never discount them but I will expect Mehmo 8/1 to set the pace and being my 3rd top rated it could at least do enough to make the frame and if allowed an easy lead it could be dangerous but I will as always stick with the proven, I cannot see anything to lay that I think will be a single figure price so I will stick with looking for the winner, Micks Spirit 14/1 is my 2nd top rated on overall figures but is actually my top rated on just 2023 ratings but it hasn't shown much in its last 5 races so would need to spring back to form to have a chance of winning this race. GOLDEN RAINBOW 20/1 (EW) comes out in 4th top spot using just 2023 ratings but has a rating from 2022 that would see it winning this race a shade cosily admittedly it hasnt been in great form this year but has been slow away or held up in most of those but if it gets away on terms here it could prove the stronger nearing the finish and is dropped in class to run in this race and will be carrying my money even though it does look to be the stables 2nd string and hopefully it will be an each way price. 

Each way beat Golden Rainbow 20/1

Rainbow Gold 28/1 7th -2pts

Total on the day -2pts 

SOUTHWELL 4.25 

6F Class-6 Div1 14-Runners.

There is five 3yo’s in this race which always muddies the waters, Congress has the best form of the quintet but the time was relatively slow when it won over course and distance last time out and this looks a tougher race and once again its a race where I don't think I can find anything of value to put forward as a lay bet. Autumn Flight 12/1 is one of the two known front running types in this race and is my top rated on just 2023 course and distance ratings so could possibly win this race, The Waiting Game 11/10 won when I backed it last time out being backed down from an early 9/1 price but that was at Chelmsford on the Polytrack surface and it did win very convincingly that day leading all the way, its other victory also came over the same course and distance, so if taking to this surface it could quite easily complete its hattrick but I expect it will be a fairly short priced favourite so not really a value bet, if Eldeyaar 16/1 can reproduce its best rating from Wolverhampton last year it would be winning this race with a little bit too spare. I think the winner will come from this trio so maybe dutching them will be the way forward in this race. 

Dutch The Waiting Game 11/10 + Autumn Flight 12/1 + Eldeyaar 16/1 with a win bet and 2 each way bets. 

(For ease, I do all dutch bets 1pt win singles. JC) 

The Waiting Game 1st 11/10 +1.1pt 

Eldeyaar 18/1 2nd -1pt 

Autumn Flight 20/1 9th -1pt 

Total -0.9pts

SOUTHWELL 5.00 

6F Class-6 14-Runners 

Up to seven 3yo’s in this race it might normally be a race to tread very carefully in but from what they have shown so far one of them would have to improve to win this race. Firstly, I will look to lay Blackcurrent 8/1 if its a single price as it struggles to stay the distance in a true run race which it might get here with Tathmeen 6/1 my 3rd top rated likely to lead here, as i cannot see a natural looking front running type in this race but it has led before, and if allowed an easy lead it ought to at least do enough to make the frame and might be worth at least a bet, *Deputise 3/1 comes out in 2nd top spot but is only 2lbs higher than the 3rd top rated on 2023 ratings and only 1lb higher using 2022 ratings which shows how close things are at the top of my ratings, it would be folly to ignore Jumira Bridge 20/1 who is my top rated overall and it recorded that rating this year at Wolverhampton and is the type of horse that can spring back to from without warning so this looks to be another race where dutching 3 runners might be the solution to the race but maybe the lay should be the priority in this race.

Lay Blackcurrent 8/1

Dutch: Tathmeen 6/1 + Jumira Bridge 20/1 with 2 win bets and an each way bet.

(For ease, I do all dutch bets 1pt win singles. JC) 

Jumira Bridge 14/1 9th -1pt 

Tathmeen 12/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bet: Blackcurrent +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day: -1.9pts

9:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (15th August)

NEWCASTLE 9.00 

5F Class 6 14 Runners.

I can see a couple of horses, Jarvis and Annie Maher, that have led before and they are my 7th and 6th top rated horses so I doubt they can lead all the way for the win. I'm not sure I can find anything of value to lay in this race so it will probably be a win only race, Ben Macdul is 5th top rated but might be better when tried over a longer distance, I've backed Yaahobby before and is my 4th top rated in this race so it could possibly make the frame but I doubt it will be an each way price. Stallone usually stays on at the finish over today's distance and comes out in 3rd top spot on my unique speed figures but does seem to be bit better at Southwell compared to this course, my 2nd top rated is Wee Fat Mac who has only run once before over today's course and distance but its best figure from Southwell this year would see it go well here so I couldn't back or lay this one. My top rated is the top weighted horse GOLDEN RAINBOW 6/1 who recorded a rating in 2022 which would it see it winning this race a shade cosily and is dropped in class to run in this race and with the jockeys 17% win ratio on the stables older horses its the one that will be carrying my money.

Golden Rainbow 6/1 9th -1pt

Total on day -1pt

1:15 Southwell Racing Tips (9th March)

SOUTHWELL 1.15 

A full complement of 14 runners in this 5 furlong dash where half the field are known as front running types and they could well cut each others throats in the battle for the lead and setting the race up for something coming from off the pace. I'm not sure I can find anything of value to put forward as a lay, 6th top rated Bert Kibbler, joint 4th top rated Level Up, 3rd top rated Angle Land and 2nd top rated Jeans Maite are all ones that like to set the pace and any would be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but I cannot see that happening here, Man On A Mission is my other joint 4th top rated and usually likes to track the leaders before staying on at the finish but my top rated is GOLDEN RAINBOW 11/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and then runs on strongly nearing the winning line, its record on an artificial surface is 2 wins and 3 placed efforts from just 7 races but none of them have been at this course but was recorded over the straight 5 furlongs at Newcastle and a repeat of that rating would see it winning a shade cosily and a pointer that makes me think its prepared for this run after a break is the jockey booking as they have a 19% win ratio when riding on the stables older horses. 

Golden Rainbow 11/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 7.15 

A class 5 sprint with 2 possible pacesetters in the shape of Thaki, who will need to improve a bit time wise but is the more natural front running type, and Tathmeen 6/1 who is my 2nd top rated using a Southwell rating but has never won in this class of race, so it could go well but I doubt can win the race but never say never. Macho Pride 10/1 is just outside my top 4 ratings and can struggle to stay the distance in a fast run race, I will look to lay Prospect 10/1 if its a single figure price near the off as it might be better suited to a longer distance race and might need this run for fitness after a break. Shabaaby has a rating from 2020 which would put it in 3rd top spot but that rating is now looking like a fluke time recorded when getting towed along in a fast run race. My top rated horse is CHURCHILL BOY 40/1 (EW) but this one is still a maiden after 13 runs and the jockey is 0-11 for the stable although it is dropped in class compared to a lot of its previous races so with the negatives I cannot back it on its own but might be worth an each way interest and at the price I cannot let it run without having a bet on it, ONE MORE DREAM 5/1 is only 4th best on my figures but with negatives against the 3 above it in the ratings it could be the one to prosper if their failings come into play, it usually likes to track the leaders and has good trainer/jockey stats.

One More Dream 5/1 1st +5pts 

Churchill Boy 80/1 3rd +15pts

Total +20pts

Total on the day +19pts

5:10 Newcastle Racing Tips (9th February)

NEWCASTLE 5.10 

JACKMEISTER RUDI may need this run for fitness after being off for 100 days but I expect it will be an outsider in this race. 

MACHO PRIDE has won over this course and distance but can struggle to stay if there's a fast early gallop so maybe a lay if a single figure price. 

CROCODILE POWER usually likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger nearing the finish and is my top rated, it also has good trainer/jockey stats. 

WHITEANDBLUE is one of two known front running types in this race but would need to improve time wise to win here if the going isn't riding on the slow side of things. 

FAR FROM A RUBY has never won over this distance and has been in poor form lately and I expect it will be a big outsider in this race. 

SAMS CALL is a hold up type who comes out 3rd best on my figures s might be worth an each way wager and does seem to be coming into form. 

GOWANBUSTER the other known front running type but has only produced slow times recently but if the going is slow then could be able to make the frame. 

TATHMEEN a versatile type when it comes to racing tactics is a bit hit or miss whether it will show its best or not but is my 2nd top rated so could go well if in the mood. 

ATRAFAN has been in good form when the recently but in either slow run races or on slow going but I would expect it be in the mix nearing the finish. 

MRS DIBBLE this one hasn't raced for over 500 days and might need this run for fitness but I expect it will be an outsider. 

MOVEONUP has only slow times over this distance and seems a better prospect when racing over a shorter distance so I expect it will be an outsider. 

MUTABAAHY this one races as though further would suit it better but can run ok here if the going is riding on the slow side as it will be staying on at the finish. 

SUMMARY: With either Gowanuster or Whiteandblue likely to set the pace it should be a true run race, unless the surface is riding on the slow side of things as that is a great leveler and then virtually anything can win a race, but I doubt either will be capable of leading all the way for the victory, but never say never. Sams Call a hold up type is my 3rd top rated and could stay on enough to make the frame, Tathmeen is capable of going well and can deploy any racing tactics but is too inconsistent to back with any confidence so I will be hoping that CROCODILE POWER 11/2 who has both a trainers and jockeys win ratio of 19% on the stables older horses can get a good early position from which to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger nearing the finish and get back to winning ways. 

Crocodile 11/2 Unp -1pt 

Lay bet Macho Pride +1pt 

Total 0pts

NEWCASTLE 6.40 

A field of 12 runners where half of them have been known to lead so it could be a fast and furious race and it looks a very competitive event. I will look to lay Mighty Power 6/1 who I think will be a much better prospect when racing over a longer distance and the same might apply to Bellagio Man but if they go off too fast in front they could go OK. Primo's Comet sits in 3rd top spot with Stone Of Destiny in 2nd top spot and they both like to track the leaders so could be the ones to prosper if they do go off too fast but I will be hoping that *GOLDEN RAINBOW 10/1 (EW) who races to the fore gets the fractions right and then if getting to the front could prove hard to catch and as always at a double figure price it has to be given as an each way wager.

*NR

Lay bets Bellagio Man +1pt, Mighty Power +1pt 

Total +2pts 

Total on the day +2pts