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Tuesday 10 October 2023

7:00 Southwell Racing Tips (10th October)


The early pace to this race could be set by Bungle Bay from stall two and being my fourth top rated it could prove hard to hard for a lot of this field of twelve but I'm not sure if there will be anything of value to lay which is a shame but hey ho that's racing. My third top rated is Billian who can deploy any racing tactics bar leading and stall three could work in it’s favour in the make-up of this race and might be worth an each way consideration. Flavius Titus is my second top rated but that rating came from Newcastle in 2021 and didn’t show much in it’s sole run over this course and distance but did run to that level on the Polytrack surface at Chelmsford last year, my ratings have got COAXING 7/1 sitting on the top spot using a rating it recorded here in 2022 and it usually runs on strongly at the finish at this distance, the trainer has a decent twenty percent strike-rate at this course with the stables older horses plus the horses 2 wins have come when today's jockey was on board and it can bounce back to form without showing any signs of doing so, I'm hoping that happens here. 

Coaxing 7/1 4th -1pt

Total -1pt


I’m not sure if this race is worth betting in as I can find negatives against my top three rated horses, I'm not sure if Canaria Prince likes this surface as it didn’t show much only it’s only All-Weather run over this course and distance while Mucky Mulconry races as though further would suit it better but this race could be run to suit it with 3 known front running types. The early pace could be set by Mehmo who is my fifth top rated and/or Zing Up who comes out second best on my figures but that rating was recorded on the Polytrack surface so I’m not sure what it will produce here but would need to improve a few spots to win the race but if able to dictate from the front it could feasibly lead all the way but with opposition for the leaders spot they might go off too fast in front and fade nearing the finish. Stallone is my fourth top rated and runs on at the finish, Brandy Station sits in third top spot using a rating from 2022 and has been well below that rating so far this year, my top rated horse is BASHOLO 11/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger nearing the finish so this race should be ideal for it but its not won from twelve previous runs on an artificial surface but has made the frame in three of them, the trainer isn’t in good form and has a poor win ratio at this course plus the apprentice jockey is 0-3 for the stable so any stakes will be kept to a minimum but I will only be betting if it’s an each way price near the off time of the race. 

Basholo 11/1 3rd +2.66pts

Total +2.66pts

Total on the day +1.66pts

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