7:00 Southwell Racing Tips (10th October)

SOUTHWELL 7.00 

The early pace to this race could be set by Bungle Bay from stall two and being my fourth top rated it could prove hard to hard for a lot of this field of twelve but I'm not sure if there will be anything of value to lay which is a shame but hey ho that's racing. My third top rated is Billian who can deploy any racing tactics bar leading and stall three could work in it’s favour in the make-up of this race and might be worth an each way consideration. Flavius Titus is my second top rated but that rating came from Newcastle in 2021 and didn’t show much in it’s sole run over this course and distance but did run to that level on the Polytrack surface at Chelmsford last year, my ratings have got COAXING 7/1 sitting on the top spot using a rating it recorded here in 2022 and it usually runs on strongly at the finish at this distance, the trainer has a decent twenty percent strike-rate at this course with the stables older horses plus the horses 2 wins have come when today's jockey was on board and it can bounce back to form without showing any signs of doing so, I'm hoping that happens here. 

Coaxing 7/1 4th -1pt

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 7.30 

I’m not sure if this race is worth betting in as I can find negatives against my top three rated horses, I'm not sure if Canaria Prince likes this surface as it didn’t show much only it’s only All-Weather run over this course and distance while Mucky Mulconry races as though further would suit it better but this race could be run to suit it with 3 known front running types. The early pace could be set by Mehmo who is my fifth top rated and/or Zing Up who comes out second best on my figures but that rating was recorded on the Polytrack surface so I’m not sure what it will produce here but would need to improve a few spots to win the race but if able to dictate from the front it could feasibly lead all the way but with opposition for the leaders spot they might go off too fast in front and fade nearing the finish. Stallone is my fourth top rated and runs on at the finish, Brandy Station sits in third top spot using a rating from 2022 and has been well below that rating so far this year, my top rated horse is BASHOLO 11/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger nearing the finish so this race should be ideal for it but its not won from twelve previous runs on an artificial surface but has made the frame in three of them, the trainer isn’t in good form and has a poor win ratio at this course plus the apprentice jockey is 0-3 for the stable so any stakes will be kept to a minimum but I will only be betting if it’s an each way price near the off time of the race. 

Basholo 11/1 3rd +2.66pts

Total +2.66pts

Total on the day +1.66pts

6:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (29th September)

NEWCASTLE 6.00 

This is a tricky looking race with four 3yo’s and a couple that look like possibly hidden dangers so any stakes, if any, will need to be kept low, I cannot see anything that looks likely to be of value to lay, another negative in a race, and to top it all off there doesn't appear to be anything that normally likes to front run in the race, if I had to back something in this race it would be a toss up between Asadjumeirah 9/1 and Captain Vallo 16/1 who are my top rated horses neither have been in great form so they would need to be each way prices near the off before I could be tempted to have a wager. 

NEWCASTLE 8.30 

I can see 2 known front running types in this race and it looks a race where I will have to have 2 bets to cover the angles with a front running type and one that usually finishes well. Firstly and according to the early tissue prices Mumcat 5/1 will be to the fore in the betting but I think it does better over longer distances so I can see it getting outpaced here before staying on too late at the finish to be able to win this race and would need others to falter to even make the frame. Blackcurrant has been in good form of late but its just outside my top 3 ratings but it could make the frame but I doubt it will be an each way price, Joshua R is my 3rd top rated but this one hasn't been in good form recently so not sure what to expect but I couldn't back it in this race, BIRDIE BOWERS 16/1 (EW) is one of the front running types in this race and is well drawn in stall 12 plus the jockey has a 20% win ratio riding for the stable it could lead all the way here but if it gets into a duel with Blackcurrent they could push each other too hard and set the race up for one coming from off the pace and if BASHOLO 18/1 (EW) from stall 11 gets a good tow into the race it could stay on the stronger at the finish and hopefully, according to the early tissue prices, they will both be each way prices as that looks the way to go in this race.

Basholo 18/1 5th -2pts

Birdie Bowers 16/1 8th -2pts

Total -4pts

Total on the day -4pts 

3:20 Southwell Racing Tips (26th January)

SOUTHWELL 3.20 

A class 5 sprint with 11 runners and 2, Walking On Clouds 9/2 and Bare Necessity 7/1 are both front running types but neither are in my top 3 ratings although the latter recorded its best in 2022 so could do best of the pair. Lynns Boy has never won over today's distance while Idoapologise hasn't run here before and both need to improve time wise to win this race so may be worth laying. Dark Shot is my 3rd top rated while Callin's Lad sits in 2nd top spot and they both like to track the leaders and the former may be better over a longer distance, my money will be riding on STARSONG 12/1 who is my top rated and has recorded ratings within 1lb at both here and Newcastle so likes this Tapeta surface, it should be staying on the stronger nearing the finish. 

Starsong 14/1 5th -1pt  

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 3.50 

A class 6 stakes dash where all bar the top one Ustath carry the same weight and this one who won last time out over 6 furlongs comes out in 2nd top spot on my ratings for this distance so should go well again here although its rating over 6 furlongs is higher than over this distance which it can find a bit too short for it and I expect it will be a hot favourite and that messes up the betting so I doubt there will be anything of value to lay. Sapphire's Moon sits in 4th top spot with Mr Funky Monkey sitting in 3rd top spot but I've got STROXX 7/2 as my top rated so this one will hopefully be with an each way punt and I do like the switch of jockey after showing a return to form when finishing 3rd last time out BUT this one hasn't won before with 34 failed attempts to its name and 13 of those races have been on an artificial surface.

Stroxx 5/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 6.00 

Only 8 runners for this stakes race and there's 2 known front running types amongst them, the betting will decide whether there's anything of value to lay with Dick Datchery and Elisheva being the ones most likely to fall into that category. Atrafan has been in good form winning once and being 2nd 3 times from its last 4 races but I expect it will be the fairly hot favourite and is my 4th top rated with Mutabaahy occupying the 3rd top spot and Stronsay in 2nd top spot and being one of the front runners it could go well but my money will be riding on the other likely pacesetter in the shape of ROCKLEY POINT 8/1 so I'm hoping this one can lead from start to finish. 

Rockley Point 8/1 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 6.30 Div I

Division 1 of a class 6 dash, I cannot see anything worthwhile to put forward to lay in this race, Rose Bandit likes to race in midfield and is my 4th top rated, Annie Rose might prefer a longer trip but still comes out 3rd top on my figures and will be trying to stay on at the business end of the race, BASHOLO 6/1 and BLACKCURRENT 6/1 both like to track the leaders, in this race that might be Mrs Baggeran, and with the apprentice jockeys allowances there is only 1lb between them with the former doing its best time in 2022 and the latter recorded its rating in 2021 and as its so close between them I will split my stake and back them both. 

Blackcurrent 6/1 5th -1pt 

Basholo 6/1 7th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.00 Div II

Another Angel is the only known front running type in this 2nd division and it could do better than its 5th top rated position if allowed an easy lead so could possibly make the frame. Once again i cannot see anything to confidently lay in this division, Elzaal is my 4th top rated and races in midfield or is held up for a late run, Spanish Angel who might prefer a longer distance so should be staying on at the finish is my 3rd top rated, Nellie French won last time out and comes out 2nd top position on my ratings so should run will in this race but my money will be riding on JOSHUA R 7/2 who also won last time out and has been found a good opportunity here to follow up with back to back wins.

Joshua R 5/1 9th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 7.30

Another 8 runner race but in a class 4 sprint, both Minesbiggerthanurs 5/1 and Brazen Bolt 10/1 seem to need further to show their best form so could be possible lays although the former is my joint 3rd top rated alongside Asadjumeirah, the bottom wieght Ballyare comes out in 2nd top spot on my figures but I will be relying on EMPEROR SPIRIT 3/1 who I will be expecting to lead all the way for victory in this race and the trainer has a good 26% win ratio at this course.

Emperor Spirit 9/2 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Brazen Bolt -9pts, Minesbiggerthanurs +1pt 

Total -9pts

Total on the day -15pts

6:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (13th January)

NEWCASTLE 6.15 

A field of 12 for this race but none of them are natural front running types which always muddies the waters for my analysis so my stake in this race wont be very high, After John 13/8 has won its last 3 races and maybe the official handicapper has caught up with the now and being a hold up type maybe this race wont be run to suit it so at the price it looks very poor value so I couldn't back it if its a short priced favourite but I also couldn't lay it with any confidence either as it is my 3rd top rated but there's only 4lbs between my top 4 ratings. Starjik is my 4th top rated and usually tracks the leaders so might try to lead here especially if nothing else wants to and would then be very dangerous if given a soft lead, Thaki my 2nd top rated is another hold up type so I will have a small bet on MACHO PRIDE 7/1 who can be held up or track the leaders so should be able to adapt to whatever pace is set to this race, the stables I reasonably good form and its best rating was recorded over this course and distance. 

Macho Pride 15/2 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 6.45 Div I

I think the early pace to this race could be set by Rockley Point who is my 5th top rated and might be able to do enough to make the frame, Embla 5/1 races as though further would suit it better so this race might not be run to suit it and might be worth laying at the price, Annie Rose is my 3rd top rated using a Wolverhampton rating from last year, Elzall is usually held or races in midfield before staying on at the finish but if TATHMEEN 7/1 can reproduce its best rating from 2021 it would win this race a shade cosily and usually races in midfield or tracks the leaders. 

Tathmeen 7/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Embla +1pt 

Total 0pts

NEWCASTLE 7.15 Div II

I backed Mehmo when it won last time out at Southwell in what was a slow run race but this race looks a much better affair and its not in my top 4 ratings for this race we do that its in good form which is always a positive plus its the only known front running type in the race so I couldn't lay it, Kraken Power 7/4 may want further or a different surface or maybe a bit of both and I would look to lay it if value to do so, it won yesterday over this course and distance and that was a relatively slow run race and if the 2nd had got a clear run it would have beaten it. Stroxx will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late to catch the leaders and it might be better when racing over further but is still a maiden after 32 runs with 11 being on an AW surface, Nellie French hasn't recorded a decent rating since 2020 but that rating would be good enough for 2nd top spot, Basholo 14/1 is my top rated but this one is 0-9 on the AW tracks and has just 1 win from 16 races in total. So looking at all the data and form to bet in this race would be risky so its either small stakes or leave the race alone and maybe the best way to profit from this race is to concentrate on the lay previously mentioned, now I've seen the betting maybe an each way punt on BASHOLO 14/1 (EW) could pay dividends.

Basholo 14/1 ew 6th -2pts 

Lay bet Kraken Power -1.1pts

Total - 3.1pts

Total on the day -4.1pts

3:28 Newcastle Racing Tips (10th December)

NEWCASTLE 3.28 

A field of 12 for this class 5 sprint with 4 of them having been known to lead before but I can find a negative against each one of that quartet so they will most likely set the race up for something coming from off the pace. Blazing Son 10/3 has won its last 2 races in class 6 and this step up in class might be too much for it and I would look to lay it, I also think Motawaazy 6/1 might have been flattered with its 2nd place finish last time out on this surface at Southwell but it was a comparatively slow run race. Gowanlad is capable of winning this race but usually gives an indication when its ready to win a race but has been in poor form lately. As for the winner I think the answer will be dutching 3 runners, ONE MORE DREAM 9/2 who comes out top rated using course and distance times and for this class of race, KAPONO 14/1 would need to improve on its best course and distance races but is top rated of those that have run at Southwell in the last year, the top weighted SPARTAN FIGHTER 33/1 hasn't shown much at all lately but is dropped in class to run in this race plus its a horse that can suddenly spring back into form without prior warning and if I had to narrow it down and its an each way price then it would be the one I would back but its a strange looking race so any stakes will be kept relatively low. 

Abandoned due to weather 

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.50 

A field of 10 for this class 4 sprint with once again 4 of them having been known to lead before and this race ought to be won from the front with 3 of the likely pacemakers being in my top 5 ratings. Pocket The Profit a hold up type, sits outside my top 5 ratings so may not be capable of picking up the leaders here and might have been flattered when its finished 2nd last time out in a relatively slow run race so might be worth laying. Intervention my joint 5th top rated and Rattling my 2nd top rated are both front running types so they could do enough to make the frame, Abbey Heights who is my 3rd top rated could be the one to prosper if the front runners battle too hard for early supremacy and fade inside the final furlong but I will be hoping that the 3yo AHLAWI 7/1 who won last time can either lead or at least be up there with the leaders and then prove the stronger nearing the finish and might still be able to improve with age and experience and has been found a decent opportunity here to follow up that lat win. 

Ahlawi 8/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bet Pocket The Profit -4pts

Total -5pts

NEWCASTLE 5.00 

A full house of 14 for this class 6 dash where the early pace could be set by Whiteandblue 9/2 but I don't think it will hold on for the win but could possibly make the frame if allowed an easy lead, I don't think anything else will be of value to lay. Yaahobby 13/2 is my joint 4th top rated and will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late for the win with Tantastic 14/1 is the other 4th top rated. I've also got joint 2nd top rated horses in Sugar Baby 4/1 who usually races in midfield and then try to stay on at the finish and Joshua R 14/1 who likes to track the leaders and they could make the frame but my money will be riding BASHOLO 33/1 (EW) who also likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger nearing the finish. 

Abandoned due to weather 

Total on the day -5pts