Epsom Derby 2020: Kameko to Make Balding's Dream Day

It's a generational thing. 

Like father, like son. Two trainers who spanned the decades with one dream in common - to win the Epsom Derby. 

Ian Balding achieved his goal in 1971 when Mill Reef won the Epsom Derby by two lengths and wrote his name in the history books. In truth, Mill Reef was a beast of a horse with raw natural ability, as proven by his 12 victories from 14 starts. Owner, Paul Mellon, and jockey, Geoff Lewis, didn't have any misgivings about what may have been when it came to their big day at the races. 

They turned up on the day, got the job done in style, and went back home to Park House Stables, Kingsclere, Newbury. 

Could this be a similar story for his son Andrew Balding? 

Get ready for the Epsom Derby that takes place on Saturday the 4th of July 4:55 pm. A field of 17 three-year-old colts will take part in this race over 1m 4f. A mix of trainers big and small including the likely favourite English King, trained by Ed Walker and a host of Irish raiders from Aidan O'Brien's stable. 

Andrew Balding will be sending his 2000 Guineas winner, Kameko, who races in the ownership of Qatar Racing Limited and ridden by Oisin Murphy. The stable has been in excellent form all season and they will be hoping this is the cherry on the top of the cake if this son of Kitten's Joy can triumph, stepping up markedly in distance from one mile in which he tasted success at Newmarket on the 6th June.

Kameko has raced just five times in his career, with three successes, two at the highest level. 

As far as family rivalry goes I'm sure any son would love to achieve the greatness of their father if not go above and beyond. This April foal will go to the start with the reputation of the Balding family behind him. Whether he can live up to the mighty Mill Reef is another thing because few horses come close to that (even Derby winners) but Kameko will be racing with the determination of all who believe that after many decades and even a generation that lightning can strike twice.

Good luck to all. 

3:25 Lingfield Racing Tips & Lay Bets (18th January)

LINGFIELD 3.25

There's 3 horses that could set the pace but Awsaaf in stall 2 would like to lead and then set its own slowish pace but hopefully, that won't happen here and I would look to have a small lay on this one, another that I would also lay to a small stake is George Thomas, Sandridge Lad from stall 5 and Lalania in stall 9 are the other 2 frontrunners and both in my top 5 ratings and could easily make the frame, Alicia Darcy is 2nd top on just 2019/20 c/d times but will need some luck from stall 10, my money will be riding on HIGHLAND ACCLAIM 5/1 who likes to track the leaders and from stall 4 could get a good tow into the race.

Win bet: Highland Acclaim 8/1 6th   
Lay: Awsaaf 9th (+1pt) George Thomas Unp (+1pt) 

Total = +1pt

LINGFIELD 3.50

This is a poor race and two that are forecast to be the 1st two in the betting, Dreamboat Annie who could lead all the way here but is on a losing streak of 20 races and Chocco Star who ran on well over 5 furlongs in a fast run race looks the main danger, Our Man In Havana, Porto Ferro and Pharoh Jake have the odd piece of form that could see them make the frame but maybe these conditions are not quite right for them, it's probably a race best left alone. 

CHELMSFORD 4.45

The topweight DEEDS NOT WORDS 3/1 won well last time out and has been found an ideal opportunity to follow up here but in all honesty, this race being class 7 will not take much winning and being an apprentice jockeys race where they cannot use their whips adds more negatives to the race so my stake won't be at full strength, maybe the best way to make a profit in this race is with laying, Ask The Guru, Alaskan Bay, Grandee Daisy, and Miss Gradenko even with these lays my stakes will be again kept fairly low. 

Win bet: Deeds Not Words 3/1 1st 
Lay: Ask The Guru (+1pt) Alaskan Bay (+1pt) Grandee Daisy (+1pt) Miss Gradenko (+1pt)

Total = +7pts 

CHELMSFORD 6.15 

This class 3 sprint should be the best race of the day but the big problem is the lack of known pace setting types in the race, the bottom 5 in the handicap are all usually held up for a late run and 3 of my top 5 are in the top 4 in the handicap, there's a few in this race which I will look to lay, Red Alert, Concierge, Savalas, and Calder Prince, El Hombre and Katheefa could do enough to make the frame if reproducing their best times, my top rated on just 2019/20 c/d times is STORM OVER 4/1 who will be coming with a late run and will be carrying some of my money along with LANCELOT DU LAC 8/1 who is coming out of stall one and has been known to lead before and if deploying those tactics here it could pay dividends, its best time from 2018 puts it top-rated overall and this is a drop in class for it.

Win bets: Storm Over 4/1 1st, Lancelot Du Lac 8/1 4th
Lay bets: Red Alert (+1pt) Concierge (+1pt) Savalas (NR) Calder Prince (+1pt) 

Total = + 6pts

Total On Day +18.45pts 

O’Brien duo dominate Guineas markets

The Trials are under way for the first classics of the 2015 flat racing season. John Gosden’s Faydhan flopped in the Free Handicap this week while there were victories for Kool Kompany and Osaila in the Craven and the Nell Gwyn Stakes respectively. Here is an update on the current market leaders.

1000 Guineas

Aidan O’Brien’s Found is a strong favourite for the 1000 Guineas on the strength of her impressive victory in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac last October.

She quickened to beat Ervedya and Jack Naylor decisively and the form has since been boosted by the runner-up. Ervedya won the Group 3 Prix Impudence in very soft ground and is likely to head to Newmarket for His Highness The Aga Khan. She handles the ground so well that day that there must be a slight concern that she will struggle on a faster surface.

Found had beaten her stable companion Together Forever at the Curragh on her debut before finishing third to Cursory Glance in the Moyglare. That race was on good to firm ground over seven furlongs with the pair separated by Lucida. Together Forever went on to win the Group 1 Dubai Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket and is also on course for the Guineas. Richard Hannon’s Osaila was just edged out of fourth place on the line. She won the Nell Gwyn Stakes by a short-head from the persistent New Providence on her seasonal reappearance.

Beautiful Romance ran on well to finish third and is currently thought most likely to lead the Godolphin challenge. That was only her second start having won her maiden at Doncaster by nine lengths last October. She is trained by Saeed bin Suroor who also has brilliant UAE Guineas and Oaks winner Local Time entered in the race.

Veteran trainer Barry Hills has elected to go straight to the Guineas with Salisbury maiden winner Fadhayyil, runner-up to Lucida in the Rockfel Stakes. She enjoyed a racecourse gallop at the Craven meeting, the same preparation that was employed successfully with Ghanaati in 2009.

Richard Hannon could also have a second string to his bow with Tiggy Wiggy. She was a brilliant two-year-old but is not guaranteed to get a mile. She runs in the Fred Darling Stakes over seven furlongs, after which a decision will be made about the Guineas.

Latest odds (16.04.15) 5-2 Found, 9-1 Together Forever, 10-1 Ervedya, 12-1 Lucida, Osaila, 14-1 Fadhayyil, 16-1 Beautiful Romance, Malabar, 20-1 bar

2000 Guineas

Ballydoyle also dominate the market for the 2000 Guineas, despite the eclipse of John F Kennedy in his trial. The hot favourite is Gleneagles, the winner of the Grand Criterium at Longchamp, although later disqualified and placed third.

That was the fifth consecutive race in which the son of Galileo had passed the post in front. He had been particularly impressive when winning the seven-furlong National Stakes at the Curragh. Not unlike Australia last year, the horse has been the subject of heavy ante-post support this spring with his price crashing from 10-1 in early March to around 5-2.

He could be joined in the race by stable companion Highland Reel, another progressive son of Galileo. He won a minor race at Gowran Park by eight lengths in July and followed up by winning the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.

Richard Hannon’s Ivawood suffered his first defeat when beaten by Charming Thought in the Middle Park in October and bids to redeem his reputation in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury. He will be joined in the field by stable companion Estidkhaar, a disappointing favourite in the Dewhurst. That race was won by Belardo in a first-time hood and he will also make his reappearance at Newbury for new owners, Godolphin.

Racing Post Trophy winner Elm Park will go straight to the 2000 Guineas, although he is widely regarded as a Derby prospect. His victories at Newmarket and Doncaster are more often responsible for producing Epsom contenders but Balding is convinced that he has the speed to be competitive in the first colt’s classic. He has won on all types of ground but any ease in the going would probably be in his favour.

One of the earliest classic trials was at Leopardstown where Zawraq emerged an impressive winner for Dermot Weld. The son of Shamardal is out of a Sadler’s Wells mare and connections believe he will definitely make a Derby colt. A final decision on his participation at Newmarket is yet to be made.

Golden Horn earned quotes of 16-1 after winning the Feilden Stakes at the Craven meeting for John Gosden. However, his future looks likely to be over middle distances with the Dante Stakes or the French Derby mooted as possible targets.

The Guineas could also receive the added interest of an American raider in the form of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Hootenanny. Trainer Wesley Ward brought him over to win at Royal Ascot as a two-year-old and he could run at Newmarket if he impresses at Keeneland in his trial.

Latest odds (16.04.15) 9-4 Gleneagles, 9-2 Ivawood, 8-1 Highland Reel, 12-1 Zawraq, 14-1 Elm Park, Flaming Spear, Ol Man River, 16-1 Golden Horn, Belardo 20-1 bar