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Showing posts with label Melly's Flyer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Melly's Flyer. Show all posts

Friday, 6 October 2023

7:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (7th October)

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00 

This race doesn't look too bad for a class 5 affair and there's known early paced horses in the field which is always helpful, I think How Impressive 3/1 might prefer a longer distance and might be a lay if of value to do so, the 3yos Kessaar Power 10/1 and Fifty Year Storm 13/2 might not really like this surface so another couple that might be on my lay list, while Mokaatil 6/1 could make it a quartet of lays if a single figure price as this one seems to be better over shorter distances. Regal Envoy and Belle Fourche could run decent races here and possibly make the frame, my 2nd top rated is Beauzon 40/1 who is usually held up at the rear of the field before trying to finish strongly nearing the finish and might be worth a small each way punt at that big a price but I'm hoping that MELLY'S FLYER 9/1 can set the pace to this race and from stall 2 ought to be able to gain control of the rails and if leading then prove very hard to catch BUT and it is a big but the stable has had 86 runners in the last 265 days and the stable hasn't had a winner which is off putting but the make-up of this race should suit it perfectly. 

Melly's Flyer 20/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bets: How Impressive +1pt, Fifty Year Storm +1pt

Total +1pt 


WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30 

I can see 4 horses in this race that like to front run so it should be a fast and furious early pace and as long as they cut each others throats trying to lead the race could be won from the front, this course might not suit First Folio 7/1 so maybe a lay if a single figure price, the 3yo Sporting Hero 8/1 might struggle to stay the distance while Bosh 13/2 might prefer a longer trip so this race could be run to suit its style but it may get there too late to win the race. Tabdeed would be competitive if able to reproduce its best 2021 rating but has been well below that level since then, Princess Shabnam and Minntonka could run into the frame but Batai Dubai is my 2nd top rated using a 2022 rating and hasn't run over this course and distance this year but my money will be riding on ZERO CARBON 10/1 who is a front running type and stall 7 shouldn't hinder its chances of leading or at least contesting the lead and it has good trainer, 17%, and jockey, 26%, stats which hopefully points to connections expecting it to go well here.

Zero Carbon 10/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet: First Folio +1pt 

Total 0pts

Total on the day +1pt

Wednesday, 7 June 2023

3:35 Hamilton Racing Tips (8th June)

HAMILTON 3.35

Class 2 6f 8 run Not an easy race to analyse as there is no known natural front running type in this race, I will be looking to lay Walking On Clouds who won last time in a lower grade race and gave me some cash to visit www.triplejoker.com has a relatively slow time and I'm not sure good to firm ground suits it so might get found out at this level of racing on a fast surface, Acklam Express hasn't shown much in 4 runs this year but I'm not 100% sure if I can actually lay it but if a shortish price then I might lay it. Jump The Gun might need a longer distance to show its best form so it might be the one to set the pace to the race and then kick nearing hope and try to use its stamina to win the race but I think it get outpaced using those tactics but it might help my cause. Call Me Ginger is my 4th top rated with Snash and Khanjar as my joint 2nd top rated horses but my money will be riding on EDWARD CORNELIUS 9/2 who can struggle to stay the distance in a race with a really fast early pace so this race might prove ideal for it.

Edward Cornelius 11/2 1st +5.5pts

Lay bet: Walking On Clouds +1pt

Total 6.5pts

YARMOUTH 6.40

Class 4 6f 8 run Pearle D’Or seems better when there is some cut in the ground so could struggle here but I expect it will be an outsider and not of value to lay, Society Lion will be trying to stay on at the finish but I think it might not catch the front runners in this race and might be one to take on. If Tolstoy is a single figure price its another one that I will be looking to lay as this one also likes some cut in the ground. Priscilla's Wish is my 3rd top rated using a course and distance rating recorded in 2022 so could go well here if repeating that rating, Sir Oliver comes out in 2nd top spot but that is using a rating it recorded at Brighton in 2021 and its best since that year would leave it a good few spots short of winning this race. My money, apart from visiting the best online casino, will be riding on MELLY'S FLYER 9/1 (EW) who likes to front run and could get its own way in this race and a repeat of its best rating recorded at Epsom it will lead all the way.

Melly's Flyer 9/1 8th -2pts 

Lay bet: Tolstoy +1pt 

Total -1pt

Total on the day +5.5pts 

Sunday, 9 April 2023

5:13 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (10th April)

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.13 

A field of 8 for this class 5 sprint where I can see 2 front running types, Murbih 6/1 one of them would need to improve time wise to win this race but it is dropped in class to run here but the top 4 in the handicap have all been running in better class races. I think that Westmorian 6/1 may be better on the Polytrack surface because its times on this Tapeta surface have been slow over this distance at all 3 tracks so might well be worth laying if its a single figure price nearing the off. El Hombre 10/3 is my 3rd top rated and won for me last time out so is in tip top form so could profit if others fail to reproduce their best. Giselles Izzy 6/1 is actually my top rated using a rating recorded at Southwell but its one run over this course and distance resulted in a slow time so I'm not sure if i can rely on it reproducing its best here but I suppose I ought to have a small covering stake just in case it does repeat its best but I will be backing MELLY'S FLYER 8/1 as my main bet as its the one that I think will be the one that will set the pace to the race and its best rating, also produced at Southwell is only 1lb below the top rated and from the front doesn't need any luck in running and could lead all the way here. 

Melly's Flyer 8/1 1st +8pts

Lay bet: Westmorian +1pt

Total +9pts 

KEMPTON 5.50 

A field of 12 for this class 2 sprint where I can see 3 or 4 possible pacesetters that's because Prop Forward 5/1 can lead but is also versatile when it comes to racing tactics but like Fernandoh Reh 9/1 and Royal Parade 12/1 who also can lead, they all need to improve time wise to win this race, that's assuming others run to their best, Silver Samurai 8/1 will be one I lay if its a single figure price nearing the off as its best rating might have been a one off fluke result. Dig Two 15/2 is my 4th top rated and a front running type so could do best of those setting the pace and could possibly make the frame, I have joint 2nd top rated horses in Kiwano 7/1 and Badri 10/1 who can both track the leaders while the latter could also be held up for a late run but my money will be riding on DUBAI STATION 12/1 who is a hold up type and won 2 runs ago but only finished 7th last time out which can be ignored as it was raced over 7 furlongs and is immediately dropped back to six furlongs in this race and the jockey has a reasonable strike rate for the stable.

Dubai Station 12/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bet: Silver Samuri +1pt 

Total 0pts

Total on the day +9pts

Monday, 27 March 2023

7:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (28th March)

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00 

A class 5 sprint with 11 runners and 3 known front running types amongst them, Level Up 10/1 might find this trip too far so a lay if a single figure price, Shades Of Summer 7/4 has never raced over this distance on the Tapeta surface and would need to improve on its best Polytrack rating to win here so one I will lay at the price. Watermelon Sugar is my 3rd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders so could possibly make the frame but I doubt it will be an each way price, Alafdhal is dropped in class here and its another that likes to track the leaders but could encounter trouble at the start with the make-up of this race so my money will be riding on MELLY'S FLYER 5/1 who is one of the front running types in the race its also my top rated and its another that's dropped in class so from stall 1 I hope it can lead all the way. 

Melly's Flyer 5/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30 Div I

A sprint stakes race which usually turn out quite competitive and in this race my stakes will be kept low, Reckon I'm Hot 9/2 may be one to lay here as its still a maiden after 12 races but as usual only if its of value to do so while Ellie Piper 6/1 seems better at shorter distances so is added to my lay list. Our Man In Havana and/or Blackcurrent 9/2 could set the pace to the race and the latter is my 3rd top rated so it could go well from the front and then only 1lb below Tommytwohoots 20/1 in 2nd top spot but this one hasn't been in good form recently, as usual i will stick with my top rated and that is MAY REMAIN 9/2 who was joint top but is being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice but stall 10 may not be ideal so my stakes will be kept low. 

May Remain 9/2 1st +4.5pts

Lay bet: Reckon I'm Hot +1pt

Total +5pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.00 Div II

The 2nd division of the stakes race where this time the early pace ought to be set by my 3rd top rated horse Another Angel 8/1 so this one might be worth an each way interest, there doesn't appear to be anything worthwhile to lay in this race but I cannot see why *Beleaguerment is priced at 13/2 and it will be interesting to see if its backed and if it is I might be tempted to lay it, my 2nd top rated is Billian 7/4 who is forecast to be the favourite but I am going to side with EMBLA 4/1 who is forecast to be the 2nd favourite and if it reproduces its best 2022 rating over this course and distance it would win quite cosily and has good trainer and jockey stats to back it up. 

*NR
Embla 9/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.30 

A class 6 dash this time with 11 runners and 3 known front running types in the field, Josies Kid my 3rd top rated is capable of winning a race like this but has been in dire form recently which has put me off its chances and I can't see why it should bounce back to form here, Glorious Charmer 7/2 has been running well lately but time wise they have been slow run affairs so may be under priced here so may be worth opposing to small stakes, Amazing Amaya 4/1 comes out in 4th top spot and usually tracks the leaders but I doubt it will be an each way price, my money will be riding on the front running ROCKLEY POINT 8/1 but the stall 10 draw tempers my confidence and if it had been drawn better I think it would have been a shorter price, so again my stakes are kept low, its best rating came from Newcastle which is a straight course but has run to within a pound of that last year running round a bend so if getting to the front it could prove to be a hard nut to crack.

Rockley Point 9/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day +2pts

Tuesday, 8 March 2022

5:30 Kempton Racing Tips (9th March)

KEMPTON 5.30 

NIGHT NARCISSUS can lead or track the leaders but has much better rating on the Tapeta surface but even that wouldn't be enough to win this race. 

AROUSING is 0-2 on the AW tracks, hasn't any form over this distance on the AW but using its turf form this surface might not suit it.

MELLY'S FLYER a front running type who has won its last 2 races and has been found a good opportunity to complete the hat trick in this race but the trainer is 0-8 in apprentice races in the last 5 years.

MANY A STAR has a good time on Rapeta at Newcastle but its best on Polytrack was 2019 and quite a bit lower so might be better racing on the Tapeta surface and its 83 days since the stable had a winner but they have only had 7 runners during that time. 

OOH IS IT another that likes to lead but time wise it has quite a bit to find, the trainer has a poor win ratio at this course and might be better when dropped back down in distance.

ENDURING its 103 days and 20 runners since this stable last had a winner, it can lead if allowed to set its only slower pace but that wont happen here.

NUBOUGH has good times to its name but all in lower class races than this one plus its 10 runners and 66 days since the stables last success. 

SUMMARY: Every horse in this apprentice jockeys handicap has a negative against its name so you could back or lay anything, the one that looks the safest option is MELLY'S FLYER 7/4 and if leading should prove hard to catch and hopefully complete its hat trick but the price doesn't thrill me at all and doesn't look of value. I wouldn't blame anyone if they decided to leave this race alone and if i do bet it will be a small stake.

Melly's Flyer 2/1 6th -1pt

Total on the day -1pt