A big field of 17 runners with a couple of known front runners plus another that would lead if nothing else wanted to so it should be a true run race, the 2 at the bottom of the handicap may be outclassed here so i would lay both (*Production + Case Key) if in single figure prices, of the front runners maybe Belated Breath will do best and could possibly hang on for a place if getting an easy lead, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in Mokaatil who recorded its best last year while One Night Stand recorded its best time this year at Windsor but my money will be riding, as usual, on my top rated horse BIMBLE 3/1 this progressive 3yo recorded its best time this year at Goodwood and a repeat of that time would see it back into the winners circle.
*NR
Bimble 3/1 4th (-1pt)
Lay bets: Case Key +1pt
Total: 0pts
NOTTINGHAM 4.05
This is a very hard race to analyse to a conclusion, i would look to lay (Commander Han + The Defiant) the former may need a longer trip and the latter maybe outclassed in this class 5 race, theres 5 horses that have been known to lead before so it should be a fast and furious dash, Nibras Again comes out 3rd top on overall times so could be in the mix, Moonraker is top rated on just 2020 times over this distance so must be considered, Dapper Man is a possible pacesetter and has a fast time from 2019 which could make it hard to catch but its form so far this year has been way below that level, Shoot To Kill is a 3yo that comes out 2nd top rated on just 2020 times but only 4th top overall but recent form is probably more relevant, i will go with dutching SHOOT TO KILL 11/2, DAPPER MAN 5/1 and MOONRAKER 16/1 but even then my stakes wont be at full strength.
Dapper Man 5/1 2nd (-1pt)
Moonraker 66/1 Unp (-1pt)
Shoot To Kil 11/2 Unp (-1pt)
Lay bets: Commander Han +1pt, The Defiant +1pt
Total: -1pt
Total on the day: -1pt
No comments:
Post a Comment