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Wednesday, 6 January 2021

1:15 Southwell Racing Tips (7th January)

SOUTHWELL 1.15 

Only 7 runners but 3 of them have been known to lead before, I will look to lay (Giogiobbo 4/1) who may need further to shine, my 4th top rated is Duke Of Firenze when taking in the apprentices 7lb allowance, Dark Shot can lead but is versatile with its racing tactics and comes out 3rd on my figures but the jockey does do well for the stable, I think the pace will be set by SLOWMO 5/2 who is my top rated so could possibly lead all the way but it is only 1lb better than Thegreatestshowman 5/2 who is being ridden by an apprentice who has won once from two rides for the stable, so it should be close at the finish but I will stick with my top rated horse. 

Slowmo 4/1 2nd (-1pt)

Lay bet: Giogiobbo +1pt 

Total: 0pts

SOUTHWELL 2.45 

Down to 6 runners for this sprint which is very very competitive and very hard to narrow down to a confident conclusion, I will exclude (Dirchill 4/1 + Ginger Max 15/2) and look to lay them as long as they stay at a single figure price, Samovar is 4th top rated on 2020 times but a 2019 time moves it to 3rd spot overall, EXCESSABLE 7/2 is 3rd best on recent times but 4th overall but has good trainer/jockey stats so it looks as though the connections are expecting it to win, PEARL OF QATAR 5/1 sits in 2nd top spot and oly 1lb below top spot and its another with good trainer/jockey stats so another that they are hoping to win with, PUCHITA 8/1 is top rated and the 3rd one with good trainer/jockey stats and dutching the 3 selections looks the best solution or maybe just rely on the two lays, let the betting will be the deciding factor. For which way you choose to go. 

Excessable 9/2 -1pt
Pearl Of Qatar 5/1 4th (-1pt)
Puchita 12/1 5th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Dirchill +1pt, Ginger Max +1pt

Total: -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.45 

Not a bad looking apprentice jockeys race, I will look to lay (Lorna Cole 11/2 + Gossip 4/1 + Tilsworth Rose 11/2) as long as they stay at a single figure price, Moveonup is my 2nd top rated on 2020 c/d times and being a front runner it could do enough to make the frame, RED STRIPES 9/2 is another front runner and is my top rated and that is using a 2020 time and could lead all the way here but I expect it will be at the fore of the betting if not favourite, I will be backing it but I will also have a bet on the bottom weight LEO MINOR 14/1 who hasn't ran over this c/d before but does have a fast time from Chelmsford in 2020 and this ones trainer has a 27% win ratio in apprentice races and hopefully it will be an each way price.

Red Stripes 9/2 2nd (-1pt)
Leo Minor 8/1 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Gossip -4pts, Lorna Cole +1pt, Tilsworth Rose +1pt

Total: -4pts

Total on the day:  -5pts

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