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Wednesday, 7 April 2021

1:00 Southwell Racing Tips (8th April)

SOUTHWELL 1.00 

(The times recently on this surface have been very slow so any stakes have to be kept low) I expect Aleef to be one of the two horses who set the early pace here and it could do enough to at least make the frame, Quannah and Somewhere Secret have times from elsewhere that would put them in the mix but neither have raced on this surface before, True Hero is the other known front runner and won over c/d last time out and did record a slowish time but that's been the norm recently on this surface so could follow up here and I will use it as a cover bet but my main bet will be on ARZAAK 13/2 who has a time from last year that would see it winning but was behind True Hero last time out here so my stake will be kept low. 

Arzaak 13/2 3rd -1pt

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 1.35

There's 2 known front runners in this field of 10 and to be totally honest there isn't really enough recent data to be sure of the final analysis but i will put forward one that i will be having a small bet on, JAZZ LEGEND 8/1 is one of the 2 possible pacesetters and if getting to the front it could prove hard to peg back, it has the best recent time which is a bonus with how slow this surface is riding and its best time from 2019 would see it having every chance of leading all the way and if big enough in price i would go with an each way bet. 

Jazz Legend 16/1 6th -2pts

Total -2pt

SOUTHWELL 3.15 

This is a tricky looking race, there isn't any I could discard completely although I'm not sure this surface suits Batchelor Boy and could be worth laying but it is one of only two known leading types in this race, if I'm right that would leave Thrave to make the early pace and this one is one of 3 that are my co-2nd favs and recent c/d times, One Hart might also be better on a faster surface, my money will be riding on EXCESSABLE 9/2 who likes track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and the jockey has a good 22% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Excessable 5/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 4.25 

This race is poor even for a class 6 stakes race and there's only one horse with a recorded time over this c/d in recent times, 2020/21, Brandy Station destroyed its field last time out but as for normal around here lately the time was slow and its best time on Tapeta wouldn't quite be enough to win this race so I will be having a small wager on RED STRIPES 6/1 who can lead but has also been known to stay on strongly at the finish if the leaders fade. 

Red Stripe 6/1 4th -1pt

Total -1pt

CHELMSFORD 7.50 

A six runner race where half of them could lead and they may well set the race up for one of those finishing well nearing the finish, of the front runners Global Prospector may do best as its my 3rd top rated, in 2nd top spot is The Nosey Parker but this one hasn't any form at this course as its best time was at Wolverhampton on a different surface, so I will be backing *JUMIRA BRIDGE 6/1 hoping it can finish strongly here and pick them all up nearing the finish.

*NR 

Total on the day -5pts

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