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Friday, 30 April 2021

2:25 Newmarket Racing Tips (1st May)

NEWMARKET 2.25 

A 9 runner race with 3 known front runners among them and they my top 3 ratings so maybe a lot of horses wont be able to get involved in this race, Arecibo is my 4th top rated so could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast and fade badly, Judicial comes out 3rd best using a 2019 time but has been a bit below that level since then, Glorious Anna comes out 2nd best but those times have come in top class handicaps not Group races like today so may get outclassed in this race, I will be pinning my hopes on LAZULI 11/4 leading from start to finish and this one has good trainer, 29% and jockey 22%, winning ratios in older horse races and also has a more than decent 18% win ratio in Listed and Group races. 

Lazuli 3/1 1st +3pts (Betfair SP 4.52) 

Total +3pts

THIRSK 3.50 

A big field of 16 runners so another place up for grabs for the each way backers, both Mr Wagyu andThe Armed Man have been known to lead before and their best times only just see them missing my top four ratings, Dream Together is my 3rd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders, Benefit Street has a time from Yarmouth last year that would make it my top rated by a good few spots but that time is beginning to look a bit of a fluke where it got towed along in a fast run race and all its other times see it just outside my top four plus it has a poor jockey stat of 0-10 for the stable, so I will be backing FOX HILL 14/1 who has its best time from Leicester last year and the jockey has a 20% win ratio for the stable so might be worth an each way bet at the price. 

Fox Hill 14/1 Unp -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWMARKET 4.15 

There seems to be a lot of 7 runner races lately and here is another one, I am not sure what will set the pace which always muddies the waters, Embour won last time out in a slow run affair so may have been flattered and its best time which comes from 2019 would only see it make 3rd position on my own unique speed figures, 2nd top spot belongs to COUNT OTTO 9/2 who also won last time out but again in a relatively slow race but does have a much better time from 2020 which is only 1lb below CHIL CHIL 4/1 my top rated and both have good jockey stats making me think that both set of connections are out to win this race so I have no option other than to back both of them. 

Chil Chil 4/1 1st +4pts (Betfair SP 3.73)
Count Otto 9/2 6th -1pt

Total +3pts

THIRSK 4.25 

Eleven runners with 3 possibly 4 front runners in the field and 2 of them are in my top 4 ratings, I would look to lay John Kirkup, Cowboy Soldier and Shepherds Way if single figure prices, Saluti and Eeh Bah Gum are my joint 3rd top rated with the latter being a possible pacesetter, in 2nd top spot is Ready Freddie Go but that is using its best time from the AW over this distance at Newcastle, i will have a small, hopefully each way, bet on MACHREE 6/1 who is my top rated using both times from 2021 and 2020 and if on a going day is capable of leading all the way. 

Machree 6/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bets Cowboy Soldier +1pt

Total 0pts

DONCASTER 5.00 

A 7 runner race where the pace could be set by Danzan who is my 4th top rated beast, I would look to lay Via Serendipity who may want further and as so does Northernpowerhouse, my 3rd top rated is Triggered but that time comes from back in 2019, the top weight MOUNTAIN BRAVE 9/4 is my 2nd top rated on a figure recorded in 2020 so has to be respected but i will also be backing BLACKHEATH 9/1 who did record its best time in 2018 but hasn't any recent form over this distance as its been racing over further but its best time over this distance would see it winning a shade cosily. 

Mountain Brave 5/1 1st +5pts (Betfair SP 6.8) 
Blackheath 9/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet: Via Serendipity +1pt

Total +5pts

DONCASTER 6.35 

I will state right from the off this isn't a race to be betting in too heavily if at all, the early pace could be set by Aberama Gold but this one prefers some cut in the ground so keep an eye on the weather but if it does have cut I wont be betting, Edraak and Mokaatil have good speed figures but they were produced in lower class races, Lexington Dash has poor jockey stats, the value call in the race could be LAMPANG 9/1 who hasn't run recently on good to firm ground, which it prefers and the jockey has a 16% win ratio on the stables older horses.

Lampang 9/1 6th -1pt 

Total 1pt 

Total on the day +9pts

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