2:25 Newmarket Racing Tips (1st May)

NEWMARKET 2.25 

A 9 runner race with 3 known front runners among them and they my top 3 ratings so maybe a lot of horses wont be able to get involved in this race, Arecibo is my 4th top rated so could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast and fade badly, Judicial comes out 3rd best using a 2019 time but has been a bit below that level since then, Glorious Anna comes out 2nd best but those times have come in top class handicaps not Group races like today so may get outclassed in this race, I will be pinning my hopes on LAZULI 11/4 leading from start to finish and this one has good trainer, 29% and jockey 22%, winning ratios in older horse races and also has a more than decent 18% win ratio in Listed and Group races. 

Lazuli 3/1 1st +3pts (Betfair SP 4.52) 

Total +3pts

THIRSK 3.50 

A big field of 16 runners so another place up for grabs for the each way backers, both Mr Wagyu andThe Armed Man have been known to lead before and their best times only just see them missing my top four ratings, Dream Together is my 3rd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders, Benefit Street has a time from Yarmouth last year that would make it my top rated by a good few spots but that time is beginning to look a bit of a fluke where it got towed along in a fast run race and all its other times see it just outside my top four plus it has a poor jockey stat of 0-10 for the stable, so I will be backing FOX HILL 14/1 who has its best time from Leicester last year and the jockey has a 20% win ratio for the stable so might be worth an each way bet at the price. 

Fox Hill 14/1 Unp -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWMARKET 4.15 

There seems to be a lot of 7 runner races lately and here is another one, I am not sure what will set the pace which always muddies the waters, Embour won last time out in a slow run affair so may have been flattered and its best time which comes from 2019 would only see it make 3rd position on my own unique speed figures, 2nd top spot belongs to COUNT OTTO 9/2 who also won last time out but again in a relatively slow race but does have a much better time from 2020 which is only 1lb below CHIL CHIL 4/1 my top rated and both have good jockey stats making me think that both set of connections are out to win this race so I have no option other than to back both of them. 

Chil Chil 4/1 1st +4pts (Betfair SP 3.73)

Count Otto 9/2 6th -1pt

Total +3pts

THIRSK 4.25 

Eleven runners with 3 possibly 4 front runners in the field and 2 of them are in my top 4 ratings, I would look to lay John Kirkup, Cowboy Soldier and Shepherds Way if single figure prices, Saluti and Eeh Bah Gum are my joint 3rd top rated with the latter being a possible pacesetter, in 2nd top spot is Ready Freddie Go but that is using its best time from the AW over this distance at Newcastle, i will have a small, hopefully each way, bet on MACHREE 6/1 who is my top rated using both times from 2021 and 2020 and if on a going day is capable of leading all the way. 

Machree 6/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bets Cowboy Soldier +1pt

Total 0pts

DONCASTER 5.00 

A 7 runner race where the pace could be set by Danzan who is my 4th top rated beast, I would look to lay Via Serendipity who may want further and as so does Northernpowerhouse, my 3rd top rated is Triggered but that time comes from back in 2019, the top weight MOUNTAIN BRAVE 9/4 is my 2nd top rated on a figure recorded in 2020 so has to be respected but i will also be backing BLACKHEATH 9/1 who did record its best time in 2018 but hasn't any recent form over this distance as its been racing over further but its best time over this distance would see it winning a shade cosily. 

Mountain Brave 5/1 1st +5pts (Betfair SP 6.8) 

Blackheath 9/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet: Via Serendipity +1pt

Total +5pts

DONCASTER 6.35 

I will state right from the off this isn't a race to be betting in too heavily if at all, the early pace could be set by Aberama Gold but this one prefers some cut in the ground so keep an eye on the weather but if it does have cut I wont be betting, Edraak and Mokaatil have good speed figures but they were produced in lower class races, Lexington Dash has poor jockey stats, the value call in the race could be LAMPANG 9/1 who hasn't run recently on good to firm ground, which it prefers and the jockey has a 16% win ratio on the stables older horses.

Lampang 9/1 6th -1pt 

Total 1pt 

Total on the day +9pts

3:00 Newmarket Racing Tips (15th April)

NEWMARKET 3.00 

A group 3 race with 7 runners and to be honest on paper it looks like a one horse race in the shape of OXTED 8/11 and I expect it to be an odds on shot and if running to its best should win nicely, so I started looking at the forecast and I would think Emparaaty Ana 9/1 who is my 3rd top rated will set the pace to the race and could pinch enough to hold on for 2nd spot, the other one possibly for the forecast is Summerghand 7/1 who comes out 2nd best on my figures so in theory it should also catch the leader, the tissue betting says the 3 horses mentioned will be the first 3 in the betting so it will depend on the day if there's any value in having a forecast but Oxted might be worth adding to a multiple bet. 

Oxted/Summerghand 1 Point Straight Forecast -1pt

Oxted/Emaraaty Ana 1 Point Straight Forecast -1pt

Total -2pts

RIPON 3.25 

A field of 14 in this race and there's 2 possibly 3 that could set the pace to the race but all 3 of them, Mid Winster, Spartan Fighter and Marks Choice would need to improve time wise to win this race, so what is going to pick them up, Round The Island has a good speed figure but it comes from lower class races to this one, I've got 3 I could lay, Mid Winster, Klopp Of The Kop and Mutanaaseq if they are single figure prices, Dark Defender my 2nd top rated doesn't want it to be too firm but it has won after a break before so it could be fit enough to do itself justice but i had to go back to 2018 to find this ones best time and since then its been running a stone below its best, I will be pinning my hopes on FOX HILL 12/1 who is my top rated using time from this year when it finished 7th in a fast run affair but this one has a time 7lb faster from 2020 so a repeat of either this years or last years time would see it back to winning ways but at the price I would think an each way wager is the way to go. 

Fox Hill 12/1 ½ Point Each Way 7th -2pts

Mid Winster 4/1 2 Points Lay +2pts

Mutannaseq 9/2 1 Point Lay +1pt

Klopp Of The Kop 9/1 1 Point Lay +1pt

Total +2pts

RIPON 5.40 

Another 7 runner race while this one has 3 possible pacesetters but its for apprentice jockeys only, Afandem would need to improve time wise to win this from the front and seems better with some cut in the ground so might not be able to go the early pace in this race, Abate has a fast enough time from 2019 to make it my 2nd top rated but its speed figure during 2020 was way way below that level and during the last 5 years the trainer is 0-10 in apprentice races which doesn't bode well, Canford Bay is another that has a good time from 2019 but wasn't near that level during 2020, Mutabaahy comes out 3rd best on my overall figures and it was recorded in 2020 and won last time out on the AW, my money will be riding on DAPPER MAN 4/1 who comes out 2nd top on 2020/21 times but if this one can reproduce its best from 2019 it would get back to winning ways and the trainer has a good 18% win ratio in older horse apprentice races so i am hoping that means they expect it to go well here and I am hoping this is the one that can lead all the way. 

Dapper Man 4/1 1 Point Win 1st +4pts (Betfair SP 4.1)

Afandem 9/4 2 Points Lay +2pts

Total +6pts

Total on the day +6pts 

2:50 Pontefract Racing Tips (14th August)

PONTEFRACT 2.50 

CHECK THE GOING BEFORE BETTING. 

In all reality, I should be leaving this race alone as there is too little form for me to be confident with any selection. However, there's one horse that stands out on those that I can analyse properly and it looks a stupidly big price on the tissue prices so I will be having a small and I do mean small, each way punt on *LADY OF ARAN at 33/1 (EW). 


*NR


CHESTER 3.40 

There's a few with limited form to work with which reduces the size of any stakes, the early pace could well be set by Jack The Truth and it could easily do enough from the front to hold on for a place and if allowed a soft lead it could possibly pinch the race but I will stick my pennies on FOX HILL 9/1 (EW) who will likely track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and being drawn next door to the probable frontrunner it should get a good tow into the race and worth an each-way bet at the price. 

Fox Hill 16/1 6th (-2pt)

Total -2pts 

CHESTER 4.10

This 2nd division has a few less unexposed sorts but its still a tricky looking race, there's 3 that have been known to lead before and maybe Alsvinder can do best of those racing to the fore and its best time from 2018 would make it my 2nd top-rated but its form since then hasn't been up to that level but I will be backing MUTBAAHY 4/1 who will be trying to run on strongly at the business end of the race and if reproducing its best time from Catterick this year would see it back in the winner's enclosure. 

Mutbaahy 11/2 6th 

Total -1pt


CHEPSTOW 7.05

There's only 5 runners and 2 of them like to set the pace, looking at the tissue prices I am surprised Zapper Cass is forecast to be the favourite as this distance sometimes looks to be on the short side for it, Secretfact is top-rated by 2lb’s using its 2019 time but hasn't been in good form so far this year and I am thinking that PINK FLAMINGO 2/1 could lead here and if doing so it could be very hard to catch. 

Pink Flamingo 85/40 4th (-1pt)

Total -1pt

LINGFIELD 7.55

Will all 16 runners take part? I can see 3 that have been known to lead so it should be a true run race, looking at the lightly raced types in the race none seem fancied according to the tissue prices which leaves me with my top 4 ratings, WILD FLOWER 7/1 is 4th top rated the jockey is making their debut for the stable but the stable is 0-14 at this course, TILSWORTH ROSE 13/2 is in 3rd top spot and is one of the frontrunners it could go very well from the front BUT again its a jockey making their debut for the stable but the trainer's record is poor at 0-26, the topweight KATHERINE PLACE 5/1 is 2nd top rated in this instance the jockey is 0-2 for the stable but the trainer's record is 0-12 here at Lingfield, my top rated is DARK SIDE DREAM 10/1 and should be my selection, the trainer is 1-12 at this track but the jockey is 0-9, so as you can see my top 4 all have negatives against their names, I will probably go with dutching all 4 of them but slightly in favour of my top rating. 

Tilsworth Rose 13/2 1st Betfair SP (9.69) + EX £40.50
Katherine Place 5/1 2nd 
Wild Flower 15/2 5th 
Dark Side Dream 20/1 7th 

Total: +3.5pts 

Total on the day: -.5pts