A 7 runner race where i will be backing the one that is my top rated and also the only known front runner in the race, the top weight True Mason might struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace so I will look to lay this one, Mr Orange hasn't shown much in its last 3 runs but has a time from last year over this c/d that would make it my 3rd top rated horse, Final Frontier seems to be on a downward spiral class-wise but does have a time from last year that puts it in 2nd top spot but will be hoping that HIGHLY SPRUNG 11/2 can get away smartly and then lead all the way to the line, it has good trainer and jockey stats as both have an 18% win ratios.
Highly Sprung 11/2 2nd -1pts
Total -1pt
ASCOT 4.30
A class 4 race with 11 runners and being a 5 furlong dash there's 4 known front runners, I cannot see anything I could lay with any confidence, I've got 5 horses rated within 6lbs at the top of my speed figures, Saaheq is 5th best but that was using a time from 2019 but is in good form having won 7 days ago, Diligent Lady in 4th top spot along with Outrage and Kick On Kick On in joint 2nd top position are all possible pacesetters so it should be truly fast early pace and they might go off a bit too fast and this is a very stiff course so they might play into the hands of ROSE HIP 8/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on resolutely at the business end of the race and is dropped in class compared to where it was running last year and hopefully its run 12 days ago will have put it spot on fitness wise for this race.
Rose Hip 8/1 9th -1pt
Total -1pt
PONTEFRACT 5.30
This looks a tricky race with just 2 horses with recorded (fast enough) figures on my graphs and both of them are pretty low ratings, the top weight Fard has been known to lead before and it is one of the two horses in the race with a recorded time and it was from this year at Windsor, I would need a price of 11/2 at least before it would be worth taking the risk so if not this race is maybe best left alone.
CHELMSFORD 6.40
It is a shame there is only 7 runners but there is front runners among them, Show Me A Sunset may struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace so I will look to lay it while Eagle Creek seems to want further to show its best so another I could lay, Araifjan has a time from Lingfield last year that would make it top rated by 2lbs but I am beginning to think this ones best time was a bit of a fluke where it got towed along in a fast run affair and might need further to win, I think Endowed is a possible pacesetter but races as though further might suit it better and might not have the pace to lead at this distance against my selection, One Hart will be running on at the finish and could make the frame but i am hoping that SPIRIT OF MAY 11/1 can lead here from start to finish, it was pestered on its last run and never got its head in front but a repeat of its run the time before that would see it back to winning ways and the trainer does well at this course.
No comments:
Post a Comment