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Wednesday, 28 April 2021

3:00 Lingfield Racing Tips (29th April)

LINGFIELD 3.00 

Ten runners in this low class 6 race and there is 2 known front running types and one of them Big Time Maybe is just outside my top 4 ratings but could possibly do enough to make the frame as long as its not made to do too much by the other front runner and then fade, King Robert is 4th top and Lady Florence 3rd top rated and that's using times recorded this year so could battle to make the frame, LETHAL BLAST 10/1 is my 2nd top rated but it is the other known front runner in the race so could be very dangerous if allowed an easy lead and it is only 1lb below SOMETHING LUCKY 7/1 who sits in top spot and being so close between the pair of them I will be backing them both to cover the angles. 

Lethal Blast 12/1 1st +12pts (Betfair SP 17.73)
Something Lucky 7/1 4th -1pt

Total +11pts

MUSSELBURGH 3.25 

In reality I should probably leave this race alone as I have only 1 horse with a recorded time and that is BOUDICA BAY 6/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and being at the top of the handicap is taking on inferior animals, the trainer has a 30% win ratio with any aged horse he sends here, it improves slightly to 32% when looking at the stables older, 4yo+, horses, I expect it will be in the 1st half of the betting and anything bigger than 5/1 would in my opinion make it worth taking the risk. 

Boudica Bay 6/1 6th -1pt

Total -1pt 

CHELMSFORD 6.10 

Not the greatest race even for a class 6 affair with just one known front running type although that one is better over shorter but You're Cool could go well if allowed an easy lead but its last win over 6 furlongs was way back in 2015, only half of the 10 runners have a recorded speed figure on my graphs but none of those figures are very high so the race wont take much winning Al Asef and Red Alert my 5th and 4th top rated but their times at another course/surface and the latter from 2019, Suzis Connoisseur sits in 3rd top spot using a 2020 time but seems on a downward spiral due to its age, Sir Rodneyredblood is my 2nd top rated and that is using a time from this year, in top spot is SIR HECTOR 5/2 and to help its cause they have employed a 5lb claiming apprentice who was won twice from the five rides for this stable so I'm hoping that's an omen for today's race.

Sir Hector 10/3 5th -1pt

Total on the day +9pts

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