Just 7 runners but Invincible Larne likes to set the pace so it should be an ok race as it is my 3rd top rated, this might be a bit short for Boom The Groom 9/1 to show its best on turf and hasn't won on grass since 2016 from 22 attempts, Shamshon seems to run well even when not winning but it has good trainer/jockey stats for this race but hasnt won on grass since 2019 from just 5 attempts, it finished a length behind ZULU ZANDER 7/2 on its last run and it is worse off at today's weights but if i go back to their 2020 times I've got just 1lb between them but once again it is in favour of the selection.
Zulu Zander 7/2 6th -1pt
Total -1pt
BRIGHTON 3.00
This is quite poor even for class 6 standard, i am not sure what will set the pace which is always a problem when it comes to analysing a race, there's few that are out of form on latest runs, Storm Melody hasn't shown much since 2019 timewise, thats when it last won on grass but its best from then would make it my 2nd top rated, Real Estate my 4th top rated recorded its best time last year but hasn't been in good form of late, my 3rd top rated is Holdenhurst who recorded its best last year at Yarmouth which is where my top rated LETHAL ANGEL 3/1 recorded its best time and a repeat of that speed figure would see it winning a shade cosily.
Lethal Angel 4/1 5th -1pt
Total -1pt
BRIGHTON 3.35
Only 5 runners but i still cannot narrow it down to any less than 2 selections, the lack of early pace doesn't help, I'm not sure what to expect from Lady Quickstep while Vape comes out in 4th top spot, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in Street Parade, who is usually held up for a late run so this race isn't likely to be run to suit it, and RECALL THE SHOW 5/2 who did its best time over this c/d last time out which is always a positive plus the trainer does well at this course and that's the reason why I will be backing it, if THE LAMPLIGHTER 5/1 can reproduce its best time from 2020 it would be winning cosily but its time this year, admittedly from just one race, wasn't up to that level, i will be backing them both but probably with my stakes tilted in favour of the top weight.
Recall The Show 10/3 1st +3.33pts
The Lamplighter 5/1 3rd -1pt
Total +2.33pts
AYR 5.35
Another 5 runner race and again the lack of known early pace doesn't help to analyse the race, four of the runners like to track the leaders so I'm hoping that's enough to ensure there's a decent early gallop, Nubough and Gleniffer may prefer further so this race might not be run to suit them, Captain Jameson has a good time from 2019 but nothing as good last year and may need this run for fitness as it usually does, Pearl Of Qatar 2/1 will I expect run a decent race but looks to be poor value in my opinion, i will be backing DICK DATCHERY 5/2 who is the hold up horse in the race, it isn't much better in the betting but the outsider is only a 6/1 shot.
Dick Datchery 11/4 5th -1pt
Total on the day -0.67pts
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