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Friday, 25 June 2021

1:45 Newcastle Racing Tips (26th June)

NEWCASTLE 1.45 

A nice looking class 2 race with 14 runners, there is 3 known front runners, Mountain Brave, Magical Spirit and Major Jumbo and the latter may do best of the trio but I doubt it can hold on for the win, Staxton and Mondammej could both run a big race and could make the frame but I will be backing FLEETING PRINCE 11/1 who is dropped in class to run in this race and is my 2nd top rated on just 2021 times and has good trainer/jockey stats so connections I think are expecting a big run but I do have the 3yo VICTORY HEIGHTS 18/1 rated 4lbs higher using its best time from 2020 and will admittedly have to bounce back to form to win compared to its 2 runs this year on turf and I'm hoping the switch back to the AW will see it find its best form again and its a race where I will be having two small each way bets. 

Fleeting Prince 11/1 Unp  -2pts
Victory Heights 18/1 Unp -2pts

Total -4pts

NEWCASTLE 2.20 

A Group 3 sprint with 3, or possibly 4 front runners in the race and two of my top 3 are possible pacesetters but my top 3 ratings all get their ratings on different surfaces to today's, Khaadem who has good trainer stats but isn't a front running type is my 2nd top rated it gets its best time from the turf and is making its debut on the AW, Highland Dress is my 3rd top rated and has good trainer and jockey stats but top rated is GOOD EFFORT 9/1 who has very good trainer/jockeys stats and its best time comes from Lingfield, if I stick to just those that have times over this c/d my top rated is BRANDO so I'm hoping this race might be one where a couple of each ways bets might be worthwhile and pays dividends. 

Good Effort 9/1 2nd +1.25pts
Brando 20/1 7th -2pts 

Total -0.75pts

CHESTER 2.45 

There is 4 known front running types in this field of 8, I would look to lay Charlie Fellows 9/1 even though being a 3yo it is always a bit of a gamble as I'm not sure its really up to this class of racing, Caroline Dale is a possible pacesetter and my 3rd top rated and housed in stall 4, Cuban Breeze is in stall 2 and could gain control of the rails being another front running type while my top rated is GLAMOROUS ANNA 9/2 drawn in stall 6 and IF, yes it is a big if, this one does get to the front it could prove hard to catch but my stakes will be on the low side because of all the uncertainties in the race. 

Glamorous Anna 7/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bet Charlie Fellowes +1pt

Total 0pt

CHESTER 5.40 

I am not a fan of betting at this course as the draw can be so cruel at times, I will look to lay Sir Maximillian who I think was flattered when finishing 2nd last time out in a slow run race, Equally Fast, Spoof and Thegreatestshowman are all capable of running big races and could make the frame if others falter, I think that DARK SHOT 13/2 will be the one to set the pace and is my top rated using its best time from Leicester last year and with an easy lead could pinch the race from the front but I do have MOONRAKER 33/1 rated higher and this one is a rule unto itself but is capable if in the mood and the day you don't back it is the day it bolts home at a big price plus at the price it might be worth having an each way punt. 

Dark Shot 13/2 5th -1pt 
Moonraker 66/1 9th -2pts 

Lay bet Sir Maximillian +1pt

Total -2pts 

DONCASTER 7.15 

A class 4 race with 13 runners and 2 known front runners, I will look to lay Dave Dexter 15/2 who may find this distance too far for it as will Global Warning 8/1, I have 6 horses with positive marks alongside their names, Giogiobbo could front run but the trainers record here is 1-54, Mohaareb will be staying on at the finish but lacks a little time wise, TURANGA LEELA 10/1 is the one I expect to set the pace and could be dangerous with an easy lead, The Lamplighter is my 2nd top rated using its best time from 2020 but its best time form this year is 2nd best on just 2021 times, Big Les has decent trainer+ jockey stats but may lack the pace to pick the leaders up but my top rated is TREACHEROUS 16/1 using a time from Goodwood last year and I think it was quietly fancied last time out at Ripon where for some unknown reason it ran poorly was eased significantly in the closing stages but has been found a chance to get back to winning ways in this race but I am a little worried by the jockeys 0-8 record for the stable.

Treacherous 16/1 2nd -1pt 
Turanga Leela 28/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bets Dave Dexter +1pt Global Warning +1pt

Total 0pts 

Total on the day -6.75pts

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