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Wednesday, 21 July 2021

1:00 Sandown Racing Tips (22nd July)

SANDOWN 1.00 

This is an 8 runner race and I hope all run so I can go with an each way wager, there is 3 known front running types so it should be a fast run 5 furlong dash, I might lay Libertine Belle as it may need further but its sometimes risky laying a 3yo especially if its backed so the betting will be my guide whether to lay it or not, Spurofthemoment also may need further so maybe another one to lay, as for the winner I will probably dutch four horses, SAAHEQ 10/1, BUY ME BACK 11/4, SPRING BLOOM 11/2, UNION ROSE 28/1, in this race and I will probably have another each way bet on the latter who is my top rated using a time from 2020 at Bath and its time from just 2021 puts it in 3rd top spot so it ought to have a chance of at least making the frame and looks the value call in the race. 

Buy Me Back 9/2 2nd -1pt 
Spring Bloom 11/2 3rd -1pt
Saaheq 10/1 4th -1pt 
Union Rose 33/1 8th -1pt 

Total -4pts

YARMOUTH 2.00 

Ten runners with only Sir Rodneyredblood 15/2 known as a front running type but that was on the AW tracks, it hasn't made the frame in 5 runs on turf but its best AW time would make it my 2nd top rated but its not for me in this race and maybe one to lay, the other early paced one is Breath Of Spring 9/1 who could also do enough to make the frame but not sure if it can hold on for the win, Excellent George 33/1 would make the frame using its best time from 2019 or 2020 but hasn't reached that level so far this year but might be worth an each way punt if its 20/1 or bigger, Molly Shaw 11/4 and Secret To Success 9/1 could also go well but my money will be riding on GLOBAL HOPE 16/1 (EW) who recorded its best time over this course and distance in 2020 and a repeat would see it getting back to winning ways and i am hoping I can do it as an each way bet and the jockey has a 17% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Global Hope 16/1 9th -2pts

Total -2pts

YARMOUTH 4.50 

Only 4 runners but what a race to try and solve, I could lay Castana Dia 7/4 who may need further and looks very poor value at the price in my opinion plus you don't lose much if it does win, Invincible Larne is likely to try and set the pace but time wise it needs to improve a good few spots to hold on for the win, of the other 2 I think dutching all of them might be the way to go, STAY SMART 5/1 could be the one to make sure the early pace is fast and using its best time which came on the AW at Newcastle it would be my top rated but its best time on turf is quite a lot lower but has to have a chance, SPIRITED GUEST 9/4 would be my 3rd and 2nd top rated but there is only 2lbs between the pair of them on my overall ratings but I sure wont be betting too heavily in this race. 

Spirited Guest 100/30 2nd -1pt 
Stay Smart 9/1 4th -1pt 

Total -2pts

DONCASTER 5.50 

A field of 9 here with only Barrington 8/1 having been known to lead before but hasn't been in good form lately and I doubt it could hold on for the win even if in top form, I will look to lay Blazing Hot 6/1 who may struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace, Dandys Gold is my 4th top rated but just 1lb behind Lucky Beggar in 3rd top spot and the later usually stays on at the business end of a race over this distance, the top weight Mutanaaseq comes out in 2nd top spot using a time from Thirsk this year and is another that stays on at the finish of a race,i will be putting my trust and money on HAIL SEZER 7/2 who recorded a time at Carlisle when finishing 2nd that would see it winning this race a shade cosily.

Hail Sezer 7/2 1st +3.5pts

Lay bets Blazing Hot +1pt 

Total on the day -3.5pts

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