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Showing posts with label Hail Sezer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hail Sezer. Show all posts

Saturday, 27 August 2022

6:50 Redcar Racing Tips (27th August)

REDCAR 6.50 

A field of 13 but not one known front running type amongst them which is always a bugbear when trying to analyse a race, if there was guaranteed to be a fast early gallop I would have looked to lay both Prodigious Blue and Kendred Fire despite them being 3yo’s but I might look to lay As If By Chance 7/2 at the price as it looks way too short for its chance of winning and Classy Al but with the lack of known pacesetters I cannot lay anything because if it turns into a 2 furlong dash anything could happen, Surprise Picture 12/1 and Mutanaaseq 20/1 my 5th and 4th top rated horses could make the frame if others falter, 3rd top spot goes to Lost My Sock 14/1 who looks as though a longer distance would suit it better so this race might not be run to suit it, Captain Vallo 12/1 usually likes to track the leaders and comes out in 2nd top spot,my top rated is HAIL SEZER 12/1 who was a beaten favourite last time it ran and now seems to be a bigger price than its chance of winning the race and a reproduction of its best rating recorded at Carlisle last year would see it winning this race a shade cosily as usual with the price on offer it has to be an each way wager but my stakes wont be at full strength with the lack of known early paced sorts in the race. 

Hail Sezer 16/1 1st +20pts (That's what we like to see) 

Total +20pts 

REDCAR 7.20 

Div I: I can only see Cuppacoco 7/1 as a front running type in this race and being my 2nd top rated it ought to prove hard to catch if getting to the front and it has finished 2nd in both of its last 2 starts and I'm hoping that will happen here and it could be the one to do for the forecast, I doubt there will be anything of value to lay as my top 4 ratings are the only horses forecast to be single figure prices, Dreamcasing 9/4 is my 4th top rated and usually stays on at the finish and could make the frame but I don't think it will win the race so maybe worth laying the win part at such short odds, Dirchill comes out in 3rd top spot and can be held up or track the leaders and another possible each way bet but my money will be riding on HURSTWOOD 11/4 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and the jockey booking looks a positive move making me think connections expect it to follow up its win last time out. 

Hurstwood 4/1 1st +4pts 

Total 4pts 

REDCAR 7.50 

Div II: This is the slightly worse division but once again I can only see one known front runner in the race in the shape of Quercus who is my 3rd top rated mainly because there is only 3 runners with a recorded speed rating and would need to pinch the race from the front but I can't quite see that happening but it could do enough to make the frame, the only horse of value that I can see to lay is Birdie Bowers who might find the distance too far on turf as it seems much better on the AW surfaces, Aconcagua Mountain is my 2nd top rated and is usually held up for a late run and could make the frame but I will be relying on the top weighted ISLE OF DREAMS 3/1 who has been found a good opportunity to complete its hattrick and it usually tracks the leaders before staying on the stronger at the finish.

Isle Of Dreams 3/1 1st +3pts 

Total 3pts 

Total on the day +27pts (Exceptional tipping from the Sprint King)  

340/1 Treble!!!!!!! 

Thursday, 23 June 2022

1:00 Doncaster Racing Tips (24th June)

DONCASTER 1.00 

The bottom 3 in the handicap look to have very little chance of winning this race but never say never, but I doubt they will be of value to lay, there isn't any known pacesetters in this race which always makes things very hard to analyse to a conclusion, Dark Shot 50/1 and Good Earth 3/1 can both struggle to stay this distance in a fast run affair but may be ok with the make-up of this race but I have two horses that are a good few spots ahead of the rest of the field using my own unique speed ratings and there is only 1lb between them, After John 13/2 has poorish jockey stats while the trainer is 0-19 with their older horses at this course so I will back HAIL SEZER 11/2 who can be held up or race I'm midfield the top class jockey booking looks a positive move and this will be his first ride for the stable. 

Hail Sezer 11/2 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

YARMOUTH 4.05 

A field of 7 for this race with only Haveoneyerself known to lead and could be very dangerous if allowed an easy lead, there is three 3yo’s in the field who could improve without warning which has put me on the back foot and the formlines are so tangled I'm not sure what will win this race so maybe the best way to go to make a profit is to lay something, I have marked down 2 horses that I could lay, Colombre 3/1 who may need a longer distance on good to firm ground to show its best form while Grandfather Tom 9/2 has been running ok lately but may find itself outclassed at this level. 

Lay bets Colombre +1pt, Grandfather Tom +1pt 

Total +2pts 

YARMOUTH 4.40 

Only six runners with one known pace setting type amongst them, the bottom 2 in the handicap look to have virtually no chance of winning this race, I would look to lay Snow Berry who has won at this distance but only in a slow time and hasn't been in good form recently and also has poorish trainer/jockey stats, I only have 1lb between my 2 top rated horses and my 2nd top rated is Amor De Mi Vida 8/11 and that price looks way too short in my opinion so I will go with AISH 4/1 who is my top rated and also the only known front runner in the race so if leading and setting its own pace it could lead all the way for the victory. 

Aish 12/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Snow Berry +1pt 

Total 0pts

NEWCASTLE 6.00 

A field of 11 with just Mews House 15/2 known as a front running type but it would need to improve time wise to stay ahead all the way for the win but could possibly be an each way bet but would need others to falter, I will look to lay the top weighted Runnin Wild 11/2 who may need further and has poor trainer/jockey stats, Bunnian is my 3rd top rated but hasn't been in good form lately, Tanasoq is capable of producing a good speed rating but usually in a lower class six race, I will be putting my money on GLORIOUS RIO 5/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish it has good jockey stats and is drawn close to the likely leader so will hopefully get a good tow into the race.

Glorious Rio 14/1 7th -1pt 

Runnin Wild -2.25pts 

Total -3.25pts

Total on the day -2.25pts

Monday, 30 May 2022

2:20 Brighton Racing Tips (31st May)

BRIGHTON 2.20 

A shame there's on 7 runners but hey ho it is what it is, firstly I will be looking to lay Shamshon 5/2 who might have been flattered when it finished 3rd last time out in what turned out to be a slow run affair and the pace in this race might be lot faster, Bowling Russiain 14/1 is my 2nd top rated but it is another that can struggle to stay the distance if there's a fast early pace but it might have been a worthwhile each way bet if there was 8 runners and 3 places up for grabs, I think the pace will be set by DOC SPORTELLO 8/1 who is my top rated and also the only known front running type in the race so it should be able to lead and if doing so will prove hard to catch and today's jockey has a good 31% win ratio when riding for the stable. 

Doc Sportello 11/1 1st +11pts 

Lay bet Shamshon +1pt 

Total +12pts 

BRIGHTON 4.55

Another 7 runner race with a couple of possible pacesetters, as for lays in this race I can see two that might fit the bill, I think Kath's Toyboy 11/4 will be better suited to a longer distance and has only won once from 20 races so isn't a prolific winner also Hope Springs 5/1 who again might be better when racing over further and this one has poorish trainer stats and the jockey is 0-6 for the stable, King Crimson 8/1 is a front running type who comes out 2nd top rated on my figures so could go well but my top rated horse STREET PARADE 4/1 is the other front running type and if this one gets to the front it could prove hard to catch. 

Street Parade 4/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets Kath's Toyboy +1pt, Hope Springs +1pt 

Total +1pt

THIRSK 6.22 

This doesn't look too bad for a class 5 race apart from there's quite a few relatively lightly run horses with not much data to work with which always makes analysis hard plus a field of 16 makes the task even harder, I've no idea what will set the pace to this race but I've found 2 horses that have ratings that are usually found in slightly better races than this one, DREAM TOGETHER 13/2 is my 2nd top rated but only 1lb off of the top spot and in the last 2 weeks the stable has sent out 9 horses of which 2 have won so the stable is in good form and this one has to be backed if the ground is the good to firm ground that it likes best, my top rated horse in this is HAIL SEZER 10/1 and this ones trainer 2-7 in the last 2 weeks, so another in form stable and if the ground is good `or faster I will be backing them both but might cut it down to just my top rated if the going is just good ground.

Hail Sezer 10/1 5th -1pt 
Dream Together 13/2 Unp -1pt 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day +11pts

Friday, 27 August 2021

2:45 Newmarket Racing Tips (28th August)

NEWMARKET 2.45 

A 10 runner Listed class race with a couple of front runners, the top weight Summerghand is dropped in class from its recent races and if reproducing its best time from 2020 here over the Rowley course it could win but its been way below that standard time wise so far this year and not worth risking, Adaay To Remember won last time out in a lower class race and might be a progressive type but this is a big jump in class but being a front running type it could go well but not one I would like to rely on, I will be on the side of TABDEED 2/1 who is another dropped in class and comes out as my top rated using its time from Newbury last time out when it finished 2nd and has been found a good opportunity to go one better here, I expect it will be the favourite but I don't mind backing shorter priced horse in races where the prize money is significant. 

Tabdeed 2/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt

BEVERLEY 3.15 

This is a Listed class race with 4 known front runners amongst the field of 12 and both Tis Marvellous and Justanotherbottle could do well from the front as both are in my top 4 ratings, I would look to lay Dakota Gold 5/1 if its a single figure price as I think its better over longer distances but with the likely fast pace here it might play to its strengths but maybe too late for it to win this race, Wise Words my 3rd top rated will be trying to stay on strongly at the finish as will be TARBOOSH 14/1 (EW) who comes out top rated using a time from Musselburgh this year and hopefully it will be an each way price. 

Tarboosh 14/1 9th -2pts 

Lay bet Dakota Gold +1pt

Total -1pt

BEVERLEY 3.50 

A fairly big field of 15 runners with a couple of known pacesetters, until I've seen the betting I'm not sure if there's any worthwhile lays amongst them, Duke Of Firenze, Ventura Flame, Not On Your Nellie and Arnold have times that could make them competitive if at their best, I will be going with 2 wagers in this race firstly LATIN FIVE 11/2 who comes out top rated on just 2021 times and its good enough for 2nd top spot on overall figures and usually stays on strongly at the business end of its races but my top rated DARK SHOT 11/1 is the only natural looking front runner in the field and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch but the trainers 0-17 for the last 2 weeks doesn't fill me with confidence so I will go with the 2 bets to cover the angles. 

Dark Shot 14/1 4th -1pt 
Latin Five 8/1 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

WINDSOR 4.20 

A poor turnout of just 7 runners but there is a couple of front running types so it should be a true run race, I will look to lay Libertine Belle 5/1 who might need further to show its best, as for the winner I have to admit its a race where i will have to go with dutching 3 runners, LETHAL BLAST 7/2 is one of the 2 possible pacesetters and could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead as its only 2lb below GLAMOROUS BREEZE 3/1 on just 2021 times but the top weight SECOND COLLECTION 6/1 has a time from 2020 that makes it my top rated by 3lbs so its close between all 3 of them for various reasons and I cannot split them 

Second Collections 6/1 1st +6pts 
Glamorous Breeze 3/1 2nd -1pt 
Lethal Blast 7/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Libertine Belle +1pt

Total +5pts

NEWMARKET 5.35 

If this race had any known front running types it would be a cracking race but the lack of known early pace already means my stakes will be kept low, James Watt, Secretinthepark and Nibras Again are all rated within a 1lb of each other in 3rd to 5th top rated so could battle it out to make the frame, in 2nd top spot I've got Han Solo Berger but my top rated is the top weight SOUL SEEKER 8/1 who usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish and I do like it when a horse comes out top rated carrying higher weight against lesser opponents. 

Soul Seeker 8/1 8th -1pt 

Total -1pt

REDCAR 6.45 

With nearly half the field being either 3yo’s or lightly raced sorts this race is hard to analyse but I do think the connections of HAIL SEZER 6/1 have found their horse a good opportunity to follow up from the race it won last time out at Doncaster and recorded a fast time the race before at Carlisle when finishing 2nd which puts it at the top of my speed figures list but the trainers 0-4 for the last 2 weeks means my stakes will be kept low. 

Hail Sezer 6/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt

REDCAR 7.15 

I was going to leave this race alone with once again half the field being 3yo’s or lightly raced sorts but when I checked the time recorded by ABSOLUTE DREAM 4/1 when it won over this course and distance 2 runs ago I was surprised to see it was well above what I would normally expect from a class 6 race, its last race was over 7 furlongs so can be ignored and is quickly dropped back to its winning distance and should confirm the form of its course and distance win over Shes A Deva.

Absolute Dream 4/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

Wednesday, 21 July 2021

1:00 Sandown Racing Tips (22nd July)

SANDOWN 1.00 

This is an 8 runner race and I hope all run so I can go with an each way wager, there is 3 known front running types so it should be a fast run 5 furlong dash, I might lay Libertine Belle as it may need further but its sometimes risky laying a 3yo especially if its backed so the betting will be my guide whether to lay it or not, Spurofthemoment also may need further so maybe another one to lay, as for the winner I will probably dutch four horses, SAAHEQ 10/1, BUY ME BACK 11/4, SPRING BLOOM 11/2, UNION ROSE 28/1, in this race and I will probably have another each way bet on the latter who is my top rated using a time from 2020 at Bath and its time from just 2021 puts it in 3rd top spot so it ought to have a chance of at least making the frame and looks the value call in the race. 

Buy Me Back 9/2 2nd -1pt 
Spring Bloom 11/2 3rd -1pt
Saaheq 10/1 4th -1pt 
Union Rose 33/1 8th -1pt 

Total -4pts

YARMOUTH 2.00 

Ten runners with only Sir Rodneyredblood 15/2 known as a front running type but that was on the AW tracks, it hasn't made the frame in 5 runs on turf but its best AW time would make it my 2nd top rated but its not for me in this race and maybe one to lay, the other early paced one is Breath Of Spring 9/1 who could also do enough to make the frame but not sure if it can hold on for the win, Excellent George 33/1 would make the frame using its best time from 2019 or 2020 but hasn't reached that level so far this year but might be worth an each way punt if its 20/1 or bigger, Molly Shaw 11/4 and Secret To Success 9/1 could also go well but my money will be riding on GLOBAL HOPE 16/1 (EW) who recorded its best time over this course and distance in 2020 and a repeat would see it getting back to winning ways and i am hoping I can do it as an each way bet and the jockey has a 17% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Global Hope 16/1 9th -2pts

Total -2pts

YARMOUTH 4.50 

Only 4 runners but what a race to try and solve, I could lay Castana Dia 7/4 who may need further and looks very poor value at the price in my opinion plus you don't lose much if it does win, Invincible Larne is likely to try and set the pace but time wise it needs to improve a good few spots to hold on for the win, of the other 2 I think dutching all of them might be the way to go, STAY SMART 5/1 could be the one to make sure the early pace is fast and using its best time which came on the AW at Newcastle it would be my top rated but its best time on turf is quite a lot lower but has to have a chance, SPIRITED GUEST 9/4 would be my 3rd and 2nd top rated but there is only 2lbs between the pair of them on my overall ratings but I sure wont be betting too heavily in this race. 

Spirited Guest 100/30 2nd -1pt 
Stay Smart 9/1 4th -1pt 

Total -2pts

DONCASTER 5.50 

A field of 9 here with only Barrington 8/1 having been known to lead before but hasn't been in good form lately and I doubt it could hold on for the win even if in top form, I will look to lay Blazing Hot 6/1 who may struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace, Dandys Gold is my 4th top rated but just 1lb behind Lucky Beggar in 3rd top spot and the later usually stays on at the business end of a race over this distance, the top weight Mutanaaseq comes out in 2nd top spot using a time from Thirsk this year and is another that stays on at the finish of a race,i will be putting my trust and money on HAIL SEZER 7/2 who recorded a time at Carlisle when finishing 2nd that would see it winning this race a shade cosily.

Hail Sezer 7/2 1st +3.5pts

Lay bets Blazing Hot +1pt 

Total on the day -3.5pts