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Friday, 9 July 2021

4:25 Newmarket Racing Tips (10th July)

NEWMARKET 4.25 

The Darley July Cup a Group 1 five furlong dash, I doubt there will be anything in at a single figure price that I would look to lay, the seven 3yos in the race are potential dangers although on the clock they would have to improve to win this race but never say never with young horses and 2 of them Creative Force and Dragon Symbol are front running types who are both drawn low so they could be potential dangers and they do have the best figures of the 3yos but they are not good enough to top my list of speed figures, Emararty Ana is another potential pacesetter and could go well from the front and has a rating that could see it possibly make the frame, Oxted is my 2nd top rated horse in the race and drawn high but I am hoping the two 3yo front runners can go fast enough to keep those drawn low in the race and then I'm hoping that from stall 4 STARMAN 9/2 can track the pacesetters and then stay on the stronger at the finish. 

Starman 9/2 1st +4.5pts

Total +4.5pts

HAMILTON 6.20

In this race I will be looking to lay Spirit Power 10/1 who has only relatively slow times mainly because it doesn't seem to like good to firm ground and also Big Thanks 5/2 who did finish 2nd last time out but in a slow run affair and it might not be able to go with the pace of Shesadabber who is the one I think will set the pace to the race and this one would maybe be carrying some of my money as it could do well with an easy lead although the trainer does have a 13% win ratio with the stables older horses he is 0-11 in the last 2 weeks and its 22 runners and 49 days since their last winner also the jockey is 1-14 for the stable which doesn't inspire any confidence so I will be backing the top weight Thrilla In Manila who has decent trainer stats and has had a couple of winners in the last fortnight and could get a good tow into the race being drawn next to the horse I think will lead. With my original selection Thrilla In Manila now being a non-runner I will be having a wager on SHESADABBER 7/2 who can now lead all the way, there is a few negatives concerning the trainer/jockey stats but I also have negatives against all the other runners as well. 

Shesadabber 9/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

HAMILTON 6.50 

Another 7 runner race so no each way bets, I will look to lay Billian 5/1, I very rarely lay 3yos but as I am backing another 3yo in this race I will go with laying this 3yo, as I think its a better horse when racing over 5 furlongs and could find this trip too far for it and I will also lay *Fendale 11/2 who hasn't shown much good form on turf for awhile now and looks poor value at the price, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in Coase and Toussarok but I'm not convinced the former wants good to firm going while I think the latter will set the pace to the race but I will be putting my money on ROYAL ADVICE 9/2 who has a positive jockey booking as he has a 17% win ratio for the stable and it recorded its best time earlier this year over this course and distance and a reproduction of that time, as long as nothing else improves unexpectedly it should be winning a shade cosily.

Royal Advice 5/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Billian +1pt 

Total on the day +3.pts

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