2:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (25th January)

LINGFIELD 2.30 

A field of 9 with only Winnetka known to front run but as its only 5th top on my overall figures I doubt it can stay ahead to the finishing line, I will look to lay Knockout Blow 7/1 if its a single figure price at the off as this one can struggle to stay the distance in a true run race even though it is my 4th top rated , there is only 1lb between my 4th to 2nd top rated horses, Pueblo Del Pueblo is my joint 2nd top rated who has been in decent form but the jockey taking the ride for this race is 1-46 for the stable so maybe this race isn't their target, SEPRANI 11/2 is the other joint 2nd top rated and the jockey booking on this one looks significant as the apprentice has a 33% win ratio for the stable, VINCENZO COCCOTTI 8/1 comes out in top spot but hasn't been in form lately but is capable of winning without prior warning so I will be backing them both. 

Vincenzo Coccotti 20/1 6th -1pt

Seprani 12/1 7th -1pt 

Total -2pts

LINGFIELD 3.00 

Another 9 runner race but this time there's 3 horses that have been known to lead before, I will look to lay Campachoochoo 6/1 who won a slow run race at Chelmsford and another slow run affair when 3rd over this c/d so may have been flattered by those results, the versatile racing tactically horse Hurricane Alert has been out of form for quite awhile now and I think will be an outsider, Lorna Cole 4/1 will be trying to stay on at the finish and being my 3rd top rated it could make the frame but isn't an each way price, the old-timer Captain Ryan comes out 2nd best on my figures and is another that will be trying to stay on at the finish if its runs to its best it could make the frame but i will be hoping that THEGREYVTRAIN 6/4 will lead from start to finish it has been knocking on the door lately and has been found an opportunity to get back to winning ways in this race as the price shows, I was expecting or maybe hoping for a bigger price but its best rating is 11lb higher than the second top rated but at this level consistency isn't guaranteed. 

Thegreyvtrain 13/8 1st +1.625 + F/C £55.66 + TRI £202.50

Total +1.625pts

SOUTHWELL 7.30 

This time an eight runner race but now there isn't any known front running types in the race as River Tweed is a non-runner, Tyger Bay 7/2 hasn't any form on this surface and will need to improve for the switch and might be worth taking on with a lay bet then add One Hart 9/1 to my lay list, as long as they are single figure prices at the off, as this might prefer further and hasn't been in good form lately, in 3rd top spot I've got Mutabaahy but its another horse that hasn't been in good form in its latest runs, the top weight TRIGGERED 5/1 has been slowly returning to form finishing 4th and then 3rd in its last 2 runs is my top rated using a time from 2020 it is also my top rated on just times recorded here at Southwell since the change of surface, the trainer is 0-25 in the last 2 weeks which doesn't inspire confidence so I cannot make it my sole bet and will also be backing ROYAL ADVICE 10/1 (EW) who is my 2nd top rated and this ones speed figure was recorded 2021 at Newcastle I am hoping this one will be an each way price as long as all eight take part. 

Triggered 5/1 4th -1pt 

Royal Advice 16/1 8th -2pts 

Lay bets Tyger Bay +1pt, One Heart +1pt

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 8.00 

We move up to 12 runners for the final sprint of the day with 3 known front runners amongst them, Maple Jack 8/1 may need this run for fitness so one I will lay if its a single figure price at the off, there are confusing form lines and speed figures trying to work out the ratios with this newly laid surface and the 2 other tracks with the Tapeta surface, Vandad is actually my top rated if I use its best rating from Lingfield but this is its debut on this surface so how it will fare I have no idea but I will as usual stick with the proven and the betting will give me a clue about this ones chances, I will be backing 2 in this race firstly the front running ORNATE 8/1 who has the fastest time for just this course with the newly laid surface and could possibly turn the form around with Ooh Is It who beat it by half a length, my second bet will be on PHOENIX STAR 16/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and might be the one to prosper if they go off too fast in the early stages and fade nearing the finish and also has good trainer/jockey stats and at the price has to be backed each way.

Phoenix Star 16/1 3rd +2.2pts

Ornate 8/1 4th -1pt 

Total +1.2pts

Total on the day -0.175

4:25 Newmarket Racing Tips (10th July)

NEWMARKET 4.25 

The Darley July Cup a Group 1 five furlong dash, I doubt there will be anything in at a single figure price that I would look to lay, the seven 3yos in the race are potential dangers although on the clock they would have to improve to win this race but never say never with young horses and 2 of them Creative Force and Dragon Symbol are front running types who are both drawn low so they could be potential dangers and they do have the best figures of the 3yos but they are not good enough to top my list of speed figures, Emararty Ana is another potential pacesetter and could go well from the front and has a rating that could see it possibly make the frame, Oxted is my 2nd top rated horse in the race and drawn high but I am hoping the two 3yo front runners can go fast enough to keep those drawn low in the race and then I'm hoping that from stall 4 STARMAN 9/2 can track the pacesetters and then stay on the stronger at the finish. 

Starman 9/2 1st +4.5pts

Total +4.5pts

HAMILTON 6.20

In this race I will be looking to lay Spirit Power 10/1 who has only relatively slow times mainly because it doesn't seem to like good to firm ground and also Big Thanks 5/2 who did finish 2nd last time out but in a slow run affair and it might not be able to go with the pace of Shesadabber who is the one I think will set the pace to the race and this one would maybe be carrying some of my money as it could do well with an easy lead although the trainer does have a 13% win ratio with the stables older horses he is 0-11 in the last 2 weeks and its 22 runners and 49 days since their last winner also the jockey is 1-14 for the stable which doesn't inspire any confidence so I will be backing the top weight Thrilla In Manila who has decent trainer stats and has had a couple of winners in the last fortnight and could get a good tow into the race being drawn next to the horse I think will lead. With my original selection Thrilla In Manila now being a non-runner I will be having a wager on SHESADABBER 7/2 who can now lead all the way, there is a few negatives concerning the trainer/jockey stats but I also have negatives against all the other runners as well. 

Shesadabber 9/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

HAMILTON 6.50 

Another 7 runner race so no each way bets, I will look to lay Billian 5/1, I very rarely lay 3yos but as I am backing another 3yo in this race I will go with laying this 3yo, as I think its a better horse when racing over 5 furlongs and could find this trip too far for it and I will also lay *Fendale 11/2 who hasn't shown much good form on turf for awhile now and looks poor value at the price, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in Coase and Toussarok but I'm not convinced the former wants good to firm going while I think the latter will set the pace to the race but I will be putting my money on ROYAL ADVICE 9/2 who has a positive jockey booking as he has a 17% win ratio for the stable and it recorded its best time earlier this year over this course and distance and a reproduction of that time, as long as nothing else improves unexpectedly it should be winning a shade cosily.

Royal Advice 5/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Billian +1pt 

Total on the day +3.pts

4:10 Brighton Racing Tips (29th June)

I HAVE SAID THIS MANY TIMES BEFORE BUT PLEASE MAKE SURE THE GOING IS GOOD OR FIRMER AS MY FIGURES ARE ALL CALCULATED ON THAT SORT OF GROUND AND RAIN IS FORECAST IN SOME AREAS. 

BRIGHTON 4.10 

A 6 runner race with one known front runner among them, Minhaaj may need further to show its best and might be worth laying, It Must Be Faith hasn't won at this distance in the England and usually likes to track the leaders, Newyorkstateofmind is my 4th top rated and like all of my top 4 ratings its time was recorded this year, Wiley Post is in 3rd top spot but doesn't seem to like fast good to firm ground, Shamshon comes out 2nd best using a Windsor time but my top rated is the front running AISH 13/2 who also recorded its time at Windsor and the trainer does well at this course and I'm hoping it can lead all the way.

Aish 1st 7/1 +7pts

Lay bet Minhaaj +1pt

Total +8pts 

HAMILTON 4.50 

Only 7 runners with one front running type but Afandem usually fades at this trip unless allowed a very soft lead and I will lay it if of any value to do so, Gunmetal is my 3rd top rated but doesn't really like good to firm ground, LADY CELIA 9/2 is my 2nd top rated but the jockeys 3lb claim makes it joint top rated along with ROYAL ADVICE 12/1 and with them both being young horses they could both be capable of further improvement so I will be backing them both. 

Abandoned 

HAMILTON 5.20

For a class 6 race this 14 runner affair doesn't look too bad, firstly I will be looking to lay, Stronsay 5/1 who may need further to show its best, and Lord Of The Glen 9/1 I have 3 horses that are versatile with their racing styles which includes leading but they would all need to improve and there is one more natural front runner in the shape of ALSVINDER 7/1 who has good jockey stats and could go well and would be my only selection if it wasn't for the trainers 0-19 record at this course which is a little off-putting, i will look to lay Stronsay who might prefer a longer trip and Lord Of The Glen who has one win from 27 runs on turf, ROSE BANDIT 4/1 is my top rated on just 2021 times so has to be feared and usually tracks the leaders before staying on at the finish, the top weight HARD SOLUTION 5/1 will be running on at the finish and has both good trainer and jockey stats and the apprentices 5lb claim should help its chances. 

Abandoned 

CHEPSTOW 6.50 

A 17 runner race with just one known front running type in the race, I cannot see anything of value to lay but that might change when the betting is known, I also cannot narrow it down to any less than 4 selections but I will be having one main bet and then back the other 3 to varying degrees to make a profit whichever one wins, Fard is the likely pacesetter and my joint 3rd top rated and the jockey booking looks a positive for the stable, Twice As Likely is the other 3rd top rated and the jockey has a 17% win ratio for the stable and both of them recorded their best speed figures this year, Our Man In Havana is my 2nd top rated using a 2020 time from Windsor and is another with good jockey stats and the apprentices 7lb claim could help its cause but most of my money will be riding on WIFF WAFF 9/1 who did its best time at Leicester last year and this race which doesn't look likely to be too fast in the early stages suits its favoured style of racing.

Wiff Waff 14/1 5th -1pt 

Total on the day +7pts