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Wednesday, 1 September 2021

3:05 Salisbury Racing Tips (2nd September)

SALISBURY 3.05 

A field of 7 take part in this class 2 race but more importantly is that I have no idea what will set the early pace, there are four 3yo’s in this race which could still improve with time and experience, I will look to lay Crazy Luck who doesn't seem to appreciate good to firm ground so hence its times have been comparatively slow, while Chocoya is still a maiden after 9 races and may also need further, the top weighted Mountain Brave is my 3rd top rated who could go well but as there's only 2 places up for grabs it wont really be an each way prospect, the bottom weighted Silent Flame is my 2nd top rated and could deploy any tactics but hasn't been known to lead but has 3 win and 2 placed efforts from just 6 AW runs, if QUICKSTEP LADY 4/1 can reproduce the time it recorded at Windsor when it won there it could win this race with a bit in hand plus the jockey has a 19% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Quickstep Lady 4/1 5th -1pt

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 8.05 

I can see horses in this race that have been known to lead before but this race is very competitive time wise and its a race where I will have to dutch 4 horses, 2 that might lead and 2 that will stay on strongly at the finish, the betting will decide if there is any lays in this race but I doubt there will be more than one, MOHAREB 15/2 and PAPA STOUR 12/1 are the 2 that could try to set the pace, the former is top rated on just 2021 course and distance times which is only good enough for joint 3rd top rated on my overall figures while the latter has a time from Chelmsford this year that would make it my top rated but that is on a different surface but its only course and distance run resulted in a time too low to register on my figures so I'm not quite sure what to expect, YAZAMANN 16/1 has good trainer/jockey stats and its best time was recorded in 2020 which makes it the other joint 3rd top rated while its not ran on this surface this year so could go well, STRIKE RED 4/1 comes out 2nd best on my overall figures but this time I'm using a time it recorded on turf at Hamilton, I cannot narrow it down to anything less than the four horses mentioned so dutching all of them looks the safest option. 

Strike Red 9/2 1st +4.5pts
Papa Stour 20/1 2nd -1pt 
Mohareb 9/1 7th -1pt 
Yazamann 33/1 10th -1pt 

Total +1.5pts

CHELMSFORD 8.55

Only 6 runners with the top 2 in the handicap being known as front running types and they come out 4th and 3rd top rated on my figures so it should be a good gallop from the off, I think the 3yo Shanghai Rock may need further to show its best while another 3yo Ocean Eyes is held by the 3rd 3yo in the race, Lucky Ava, my 4th top rated, the bottom weight Storm Melody comes out 2nd best and could run on well at the finish along with my top rated SIR HECTOR 7/1 who is usually held up at the back but it hasn't any surface form over this distance this year but its best time from last year would see it winning this race.

Sir Hector 11/1 4th -1pt 

Total on the day +0.5pts

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