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Sunday, 3 April 2022

2:50 Windsor Racing Tips (4th April)

WINDSOR 2.50 

BERNADO O’REILLY won last time out on the AW, it only comes out 5th top on its turf form from last year and can be held up or tracks the leaders but might be one to lay as it will be a shorter price because of the win. 

RECON MISSION hasn't produced a speed figure of note since 2020 a possible pacesetter or at least race prominently but i suspect an outsider in the betting. 

ZIM BABY races in midfield or is held up but needs to improve time wise to win this race it has poorish trainer stats at this course but might be shorter because of the jockey booking so maybe worth laying if a single figure price.

INDIAN CREAK races in midfield and its best time from Goodwood leaves it short of winning this race but i suspect it will be a double figure price. 

LITTLE BOY BLUE is usually held up for a late run but maybe not quickly enough to catch the leaders but I expect too big a price to lay.

DANCINGINTHEWOODS can track the leaders or be held up and can be relied upon to reproduce its best but that wont be enough to win here and i expect a double figure price.

MARLAY PARK may really need a longer distance to show its best and could be dangerous if able to track the leaders but might be outpaced in the early stages but another double figure priced horse.

YIMOU is my 3rd top rated horse it can be held up or track the leaders and could stay on well enough at the finish to make the frame so maybe worth an each way interest. 

CRAZY LUCK this one might not want the going to be too fast but will be trying to stay on from the rear or midfield nearing the finish but maybe too late for the win but not of value to lay. 

MANY A STAR is out top rated on my figures and has been running in better class races, has good trainer/jockey stats and usually tracks the leaders before staying on strongly at the finish.

SMEATON'S LIGHT is my 2nd top rated and has good trainer/jockey stats and could be the one to set the pace and has won before after a break so could be dangerous if leading.

INVER PARK 9/2 can be held up or track the leaders but time wise it needs to improve a good few spots but finds the trip too far on good to firm ground and prefers some cut in the ground.

THE CRUISING LORD hasn't been in good form in its latest runs and may not stay the distance with a fast early pace so will be held up but one to lay if of value to lay. 

MISTER BLUEBIRD is another that may struggle to stay the distance so will need to be held up for a late run it is my 4th top rated but i expect it will be a double figure price and no value to lay.

COCO BEAR can be held up or track the leaders but seems better when there's some cut in the ground and one to lay if a single figure price. 

SUMMARY: There is a few I will be looking to lay if they are value to lay but the betting will be the deciding factor for some of them but looking at the tissue prices, Bernado O’Reilly 4/1 and Zim Baby 7/1, could be short enough to lay I cannot see why Inver Park 9/2 is so short the tissue prices had it at 12/1 if there is some cut in the ground then it could well be the winner but if good or better it may struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace but as normal if there is any cut in the going then I wont be betting in this race, as for the winner I will be having two bets firstly on *SMEATON'S LIGHT 16/1 who could set the pace to the race and if repeating its best rating from 2021 which was recorded over this c/d it could lead all the way and has to be given as an each way wager, i do have MANY A STAR 8/1 rated higher using a Yarmouth speed figure from 2021 but both ratings were recorded on good to firm going but with both having good trainer/jockey stats it makes me think both stables think their horse will run well here and both might be worth doing as each way bets but any bets or lays will be at low stakes.

*NR 

Many A Star 8/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bets Zim Baby -3.3pts, Bernado O'Reily +1pt

Total on the day -3.3pts

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