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Friday, 1 April 2022

3:40 Lingfield Racing Tips (2nd April)

LINGFIELD 3.40 

EXISTANT will be trying to stay on at the finish but may need further and needs to improve time wise to win this race and looks very poor value but being a 4yo it could improve further so never say never. 

BEDFORD FLYER this front running type could win this race using a time recorded in 2020 but its 45 since the stable last had a winner and it may need the run after being off for 225 days. 

ONE NIGHT STAND the other known front running type and the one I think will do best of the front runners and has the plum stall 1 draw to help its cause and is my joint top rated. 

STRONG POWER is a strong finishing sort and is weighted just to reverse form with one of today's rivals and is my joint top rated and has good trainer/jockey stats.

NIGHT ON EARTH will be trying to stay on at the finish but I think maybe too late to catch the leaders in time and might be worth laying. 

MOKAATIL needs to improve time wise to win this race but I expect it will be one of the outsiders but one to lay if a single figure price. 

AUTUMN FLIGHT is my 3rd top rated but might be found wanting in the closing stages and may need this run for fitness but i expect another outsider. 

SUMMARY: A very competitive class 2 race where I expect the pace to be set by Bedford Flyer and/or One Night Stand and the latter could be dangerous if getting an easy lead as the former may need this run for fitness, Existent 5/4 may be better when racing over further and time wise it needs to improve and looks poor value, I will be backing 2 horses firstly ONE NIGHT STAND 12/1 who could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but it is joint top rated with STRONG POWER 5/1 and the latter will be trying to stay on strongly at the finish and is weighted just to reverse form when they finished 1st and 2nd in a Listed race earlier this year but with only 0.02 seconds between them on the clock it will need a perfect run to pick the leader up and with such small margins I have to back them both. 

Strong Power 6/1 3rd -1pt 
One Night Stand 10/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Night On Earth -8.5pts

Total -10.5pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.00 

This is a class 5 race but to be honest I can find a negative for every horse, Amazing Maya can record a good rating but in lower class races so may be outclassed in this field, I expect the early pace will be set by Lua De Mel or more likely by BRAZEN BELLE who is my top rated using class 5 ratings but the trainer hasn't had a winner from 176 runners over 2037 days which is a big negative but this race could fall into its lap but just in case it doesn't reproduce its best then the top weight SARAH'S VERSE could be the one to win the race but this one hasn't won from 7 previous AW races and the trainers not had a winner from 25 runners over 66 days so my stakes will be kept to a minimum.

Sarah's Verse 9/2 1st +4.5pts
Brazen Belle 33/1 7th -1pt 

Total +3.5pts

Total on the day -7pts

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