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Thursday, 31 March 2022

4:35 Southwell Racing Tips (1st April)

SOUTHWELL 4.35 

There is a few I could lay in this race if they are of value to lay, Militia 15/2 may need the run for fitness, Fine Wine 4/1 might be better on the Polytrack surface and Media Guest who might need further to show its best, half of the 10 runners have led before so it should be a true run race, one who might lead is who Rolfe Rembrandt 11/4 won last time out at Newcastle where the surface was riding slow so could be anything and could improve for the win but doesn't represent value, Thegreatestshowman 16/1 would have a chance using its best rating from Wolverhampton last year but the stable hasn't had a winner for 27 days, I will be having a bet on AIRSHOW 6/1 who hasn't any form to work with from Newcastle and Wolverhampton but does have the highest rating over this course and distance since they laid the new Tapeta surface. 

Airshow 6/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Fine Wine -5.5pts, Media Guest +1pt 

Total -5.5pts 

SOUTHWELL 5.05 

A lack of known front running types might not matter too much in the make-up of this race,I will look to lay Louis Treize 6/1 who might prefer a longer distance but does have good trainer/jockey stats but could be worth a small lay bet and the same applies to Twentysharesofgrey 5/1, using just recent course and distance ratings then Knockabout Queen 33/1 would come out in top spot but its best rating from Wolverhampton is a good few spots below DRISH HERO 4/1 who won last time out leading all the way at Wolverhampton has been found an ideal opportunity to follow up here as a repeat of that rating would see it winning this race comfortably. 

Drish Hero 4/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bets Louis Treize +1pt, Twentyshadesofgrey +1pt 

Total +1pt  

SOUTHWELL 7.10 

A competitive looking class 3 race with a full house of 14 runners with 4 known front running types amongst them, I will look to lay the top weighted Mighty Gurkha if its a single figure price as its been out of form recently and the trainer is 0-11 in the last 2 weeks and the jockeys record for the stable is 1-29 which doesn't inspire confidence in its chances of winning despite it being a possible pacesetter but Global Warning, Politics and Ben Mcdull could all go well from the front and any of them could make the frame, Muscika comes out in joint top spot but the stables been 0-10 in the last 2 weeks and its been 13 runners and 47 days since the stable last tasted success, so my money will be riding on the other joint top rated SHALLOW HAL 7/1 who is also my top rated on just recent course and distance speed figures and it also has good trainer/jockey stats. 

Shallow Hal 7/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 8.10 

I will look to lay Billy Dylan 8/1 who can record a decent rating but usually when getting a good tow in a fast run race but its still not won on any of the AW tracks in 20 previous attempts and the trainer is 0-27 at this course and the jockey is 0-8 which doesn't bode well for its chances of success, another one to lay is Ustath 7/2 who runs ok on either slow ground or in slow run races and I doubt it can win this race, its been 21 runners and 34 days since the trainer of Ustath had a winner, I can add High Security 10/1 to the lay list as it might need this run for fitness and has poor trainer 1-26 and jockey 1-66 stats but as usual that's if they are single figures near the off, Brandy Station 10/1 comes out in top spot for just recent c/d speed figures so could go well and might be worth a small each way interest but is a good few spots below BLACKCURRENT 8/1 who comes out in top spot using a Newcastle rating recorded last year and the apprentice jockeys allowance could help its cause further.

Blackcurrent 8/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Ustath +1pt 

Total 0pts 

Total on the day -5.5pts 

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