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Saturday 13 August 2022

5:03 Southwell Racing Tips (14th August)

SOUTHWELL 5.03 

Class 6 race with 11 runners over 5 furlongs with a couple of known front running types amongst them, the five at the bottom of the handicap all look likely to be double figure priced outsiders and look to have very little, never say never, chance of winning this race, Jet Set Go, Big Impact and Ustath may all prefer a longer distance to show their true worth, which leaves me with 3 runners, The Tron comes out in 3rd top spot and usually stays on at the finish over this distance and may stay on too late for the win here, Scale Force sits in 2nd top spot and also stays on at the finish but my top rated MARWARI 11/4 is the one that I think, hope, sets the pace to the race and if getting to the front it could prove too hard to catch, its top rated on course and distance time since this course changed to the Tapeta surface and top using other Tapeta ratings but it was from 2020 but in its defense it hasn't run over this surface at either Newcastle or Wolverhampton since then and has good trainer, 33% win ratio and jockey 19% win ratio stats with the stables older horses. 

Marwari 10/3 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

PONTEFRACT 5.20 

Class 5 race over 6 furlongs with 9 runners and 4, Late Arrival, Cottam lane, Dandy Spirit and Macho Pride, known front running types amongst the field and it looks a race where I will have to go with one front running type and one that comes from off the pace to cover the angles, Mostallim might be worth taking on here as a longer distance might show it in a better light, Late Arrival and Hello Zabeel are my joint 4th top rated horses, Mutanaaseq is my 3rd top rated and likes to track the leaders, I have joint top rated horses MACHO PRIDE 11/2 who being a front running type could be hard to catch if getting to the front but DREAM TOGETHER 7/1 likes to track the pacesetters and likes the good to firm ground and will need a perfect run to catch the leader but this one has the better trainer/jockey stats of the pair and I will be backing them both.

Macho Pride 10/1 4th -1pt 
Dream Together 10/3 7th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day -3pts

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