6:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (13th January)

NEWCASTLE 6.15 

A field of 12 for this race but none of them are natural front running types which always muddies the waters for my analysis so my stake in this race wont be very high, After John 13/8 has won its last 3 races and maybe the official handicapper has caught up with the now and being a hold up type maybe this race wont be run to suit it so at the price it looks very poor value so I couldn't back it if its a short priced favourite but I also couldn't lay it with any confidence either as it is my 3rd top rated but there's only 4lbs between my top 4 ratings. Starjik is my 4th top rated and usually tracks the leaders so might try to lead here especially if nothing else wants to and would then be very dangerous if given a soft lead, Thaki my 2nd top rated is another hold up type so I will have a small bet on MACHO PRIDE 7/1 who can be held up or track the leaders so should be able to adapt to whatever pace is set to this race, the stables I reasonably good form and its best rating was recorded over this course and distance. 

Macho Pride 15/2 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 6.45 Div I

I think the early pace to this race could be set by Rockley Point who is my 5th top rated and might be able to do enough to make the frame, Embla 5/1 races as though further would suit it better so this race might not be run to suit it and might be worth laying at the price, Annie Rose is my 3rd top rated using a Wolverhampton rating from last year, Elzall is usually held or races in midfield before staying on at the finish but if TATHMEEN 7/1 can reproduce its best rating from 2021 it would win this race a shade cosily and usually races in midfield or tracks the leaders. 

Tathmeen 7/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Embla +1pt 

Total 0pts

NEWCASTLE 7.15 Div II

I backed Mehmo when it won last time out at Southwell in what was a slow run race but this race looks a much better affair and its not in my top 4 ratings for this race we do that its in good form which is always a positive plus its the only known front running type in the race so I couldn't lay it, Kraken Power 7/4 may want further or a different surface or maybe a bit of both and I would look to lay it if value to do so, it won yesterday over this course and distance and that was a relatively slow run race and if the 2nd had got a clear run it would have beaten it. Stroxx will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late to catch the leaders and it might be better when racing over further but is still a maiden after 32 runs with 11 being on an AW surface, Nellie French hasn't recorded a decent rating since 2020 but that rating would be good enough for 2nd top spot, Basholo 14/1 is my top rated but this one is 0-9 on the AW tracks and has just 1 win from 16 races in total. So looking at all the data and form to bet in this race would be risky so its either small stakes or leave the race alone and maybe the best way to profit from this race is to concentrate on the lay previously mentioned, now I've seen the betting maybe an each way punt on BASHOLO 14/1 (EW) could pay dividends.

Basholo 14/1 ew 6th -2pts 

Lay bet Kraken Power -1.1pts

Total - 3.1pts

Total on the day -4.1pts

5:03 Southwell Racing Tips (14th August)

SOUTHWELL 5.03 

Class 6 race with 11 runners over 5 furlongs with a couple of known front running types amongst them, the five at the bottom of the handicap all look likely to be double figure priced outsiders and look to have very little, never say never, chance of winning this race, Jet Set Go, Big Impact and Ustath may all prefer a longer distance to show their true worth, which leaves me with 3 runners, The Tron comes out in 3rd top spot and usually stays on at the finish over this distance and may stay on too late for the win here, Scale Force sits in 2nd top spot and also stays on at the finish but my top rated MARWARI 11/4 is the one that I think, hope, sets the pace to the race and if getting to the front it could prove too hard to catch, its top rated on course and distance time since this course changed to the Tapeta surface and top using other Tapeta ratings but it was from 2020 but in its defense it hasn't run over this surface at either Newcastle or Wolverhampton since then and has good trainer, 33% win ratio and jockey 19% win ratio stats with the stables older horses. 

Marwari 10/3 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

PONTEFRACT 5.20 

Class 5 race over 6 furlongs with 9 runners and 4, Late Arrival, Cottam lane, Dandy Spirit and Macho Pride, known front running types amongst the field and it looks a race where I will have to go with one front running type and one that comes from off the pace to cover the angles, Mostallim might be worth taking on here as a longer distance might show it in a better light, Late Arrival and Hello Zabeel are my joint 4th top rated horses, Mutanaaseq is my 3rd top rated and likes to track the leaders, I have joint top rated horses MACHO PRIDE 11/2 who being a front running type could be hard to catch if getting to the front but DREAM TOGETHER 7/1 likes to track the pacesetters and likes the good to firm ground and will need a perfect run to catch the leader but this one has the better trainer/jockey stats of the pair and I will be backing them both.

Macho Pride 10/1 4th -1pt 

Dream Together 10/3 7th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day -3pts

1:45 Nottingham Racing Tips (23rd June)

NOTTINGHAM 1.45 

Only 4 runners with half of them being 3yo’s which doesn't help my analysis, Miss Calculation 7/1 may need further and isn't proven on good to firm ground so maybe worth laying, As If By Chance 3/1 needs to improve time wise to win this race, Aphelios 11/8 is my joint top rated thanks to the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim and has had only 1 run for this stable before which he won on, PRINCE OF BEL LIR 3/1 is my other joint top rated and the only known front runner in the race so this one could be able to lead all the way.

Prince Of Bel Lir 3/1 1st +3pts 

Total +3pts 

NOTTINGHAM 4.05 

This race isn't much better with 5 runners and 4 of them have been known to lead before and I think the race could be between HIGH SECURITY 9/2 and EEH BAH GUM 10/3 as long as they don't cut each others throat in a desperate battle to lead, they flip flop as my top rated with the latter being ridden by a 5lb claiming apprentice who certainly looks worth his claim, I have negatives against the other 3 runners in the race but if they do go off at a madcap fast pace then possibly Stone Circle 7/4 could follow up its win from just a few days ago but isn't of much value so I will go with dutching my top rated pair. 

Eeh Bah Gum 10/3 2nd -1pt 

High Security 11/2 4th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

HAMILTON 8.30

Up to 6 runners for this race where Huraiz seems the most likely pacesetter but this one hasn't been in good form lately and has poor trainer/jockey stats which puts me off, Primo's Comet can record a good rating but might get outclassed at this level but what will win this race is something I cannot fathom and maybe the best way to make a profit from this race is with a lay and I would look to lay Boogie Time 5/2 who may need further and this race most likely will not be run to suit it plus the apprentice jockey has a dire 1-40 win ratio for the stable. 

HAMILTON 9.00

WOW a field of 10 for this race with a couple of known front running types amongst them, Fircombe Hall 4/1 finished 2nd last time out and actually recorded its best rating that day but it was still a relatively slow time and might therefore have been flattered by that result and will be much shorter here than its chance merits the trainer is 0-21 at this course and the jockey is 0-6 for the stable so certainly looks one to lay, Elladora 10/1 who likes to track the leaders starts off as my top rated but drops to 2nd top spot when an opponent has a 5lb claiming apprentice on board so looks as though it could make the frame and possibly be worth an each way bet, as for the winner I think MACHO PRIDE 4/1 could set the pace to this race and if leading could be hard to peg back and the apprentice jockey is 1-3 when riding the stables older horses.